Don't expect an Apple DVR anytime soon

Kai Cherry, until IPTV replaces broadcast, people will look for DVRs that work with OTA/Satellite/Cable. There is some suckage, especially everything that isn't TiVo. But TiVo depends on IR blasters, too, except for DirecTiVo but that can't get all of the channels anymore.

An Apple DVR could be as good as TiVo, cost less (see # 25 above for why), and serve as a bridge to the future where a la carte IPTV rules.

Apple already has a 'soft' DVR, called iTunes. For now the recordings are mini-screen versions, and aren't recorded on the Mac, but they could easily add a full-size offering with a different billing model. Adding TiVo-style features (pause/control live TV, see-through program guide, recording your own shows) requires that the Mac capture and process live video input. Macs don't have the requisite video input port. Macs have Firewire, but most homes don't get their TV signals over Firewire. So where's the Mac DVR with video input?

Keep in mind that while the Mac has just 6% of its market, iTunes has 78% of the online media market, so iTunes is a better marketing proposition. And Apple's remote is called the "Apple Remote," not the Mac Remote. Apple could go after this market without ever building video capture into a specialized Mac.

There are a dozen or more Firewire- and USB-based video capture products that an improved iTunes DVR could use. Bundling a video-in box the size of an iPod with a Mac would allow Apple to roll out a 'Mac DVR.' Since it would not be a free option, call it 'iTunes DVR with Front Row.' It would run on the Core Duo chip only, so it drives new Mac sales. Apple should make it available for Windows before Microsoft can ship Vista in order to protect iTunes' market share on the PC.

Plain old iTunes could still play back shows even without the video add-on, and downloaded programs can be ready to play when you want them, much like Comcast's OnDemand feature. iTunes DVR users could also record shows at home and would have the Front Row user interface for live TV.

Apple would make more money from MacDVR Minis than they do on tv shows. Remember, the ITMS is mainly there for Apple to sell more iPods which can have music from another source.

As long as there is BitTorrent, I'll have no need of a DVR or the ITMS. That's as long as there is BitTorrent...

Why not? Because, Larry posits, Apple is selling TV shows on the iTunes Music Store, why would they enable Mac users to easily record the same shows that you can buy for them for free, and get them at a much higher resolution to boot.

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Because... the important thing is, THIS IS A COMPUTER.. if you could DL anything you want, then you could theoretically use the DVD burner on this thing and have the ultimate free content ripper. It would be a legal nightmare. The reason the studios like iTMS model is BECAUSE they can keep track of their content being sold one at a time.

PVRS = legal
Mac minis = legal

Put them together? = legal nightmare

Its a lot more simple than it is nefarious:

DVRs SUCK.

That's right. I said it.

I've been rockin' the things since the Showstopper, and I gotta tell ya, there is NOTHING Apple can bring to the table here beyond Tivo *where it counts*...and that is the Connectivity Problem.

See, if all you wanna do is record off TV, great...mostly.

But, we are talking OTA HDTV, DirecTV/Dish/Cable hybrid systems here. IR Blasters. The Works.

Unless Apple makes a box that has a DirecTV/Dish/Cable/OTA HDTV tuner combo in it, they have NOTHING TO ADD to solve the core problem.

Like I constantly tell these "I want a Pony!" whiney types:

"Its *Apple*...think of an *Apple* solution, not an M$ solution with an Apple UI. Whole widget. End-to-end, just works-ness."

To this end, what Apple *can* do for ya is streaming and On-Demand purchasing. Every other day, we hear "Broadcast is Obsolete!"...but yet people are clamoring for tech that embraces an obsolete model :)

Interesting.

That's good news! I bought a TiVo yesterday.

Its a non-issue -- people who buy Tivo still watch DVD and the general public still spends $10 to go to a movie theatre.

As broadband becomes more widespread and faster, buying movies & TV shows will become more and more critical. But today, the video you buy online just isn't as good as what is on TV or DVD. So Apple will need to support DVR to drive the sales of iMacs.

Until you have 200 million iPods in use out there & hooked to TVs Apple needs to sell high-margin hardware, and they need DVR capability to drive sales.

Just because Apple sells content on the iTunes Store is no reason not to enable DVR functionality in the Macs. After all, some people will want a la carte via the iTunes Store without having to pay for cable television, while other users will continue to subscribe to cable television and thus would use the DVR capabilities. Being pragmatic instead of dogmatic would sell more Apple Mac Minis to the detriment of the Windows Media Center platform.

Its the same shortsightedness as evidenced by Apple refusing to enable OGG and FLAC functionality on the iPods. Adding such features would not cost Apple much money - especially since they are open source - and nor would it hurt AAC and Apple's AAC+Fairplay DRM from the iTunes Store. Yet it would continue to emasculate Windows WMA DRMed format as well as cut down on anti-iPod sentiment from those OGG/Flac supporters who instead buy iRivers. In this case, Apple's own stubbornness fuels its competitors. And yes, iRiver and Creative sell far less MP3 players than Apple but the point is Apple could use all the money it could get. Why feed the competition?

Let's not forget that there are already thrid part DVR's for Apple. I'm not saying they are as good as they should be, but it does exsist. Also, remember that Apple hired one of the executive team from El Gato. I have to believe they will attack this market.