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Macworld Keynote Purchase Safety Dates

by Dan Lurie Dec 21st 2006 at 5:30PM

One of the reasons Apple tries so hard to keep upcoming products under-wraps is something called the Osborne Effect. In 1983, Osborne Computer announced the future release of several new machines that would far out-perform their current offerings. Unfortunately, Osborne was counting on sales from their current machines to pay for production of the next-generation products. As soon as people heard something better was in the pipeline, sales dried up, and Osborne eventually went under. The very same thing would happen if info were to get out about a new iPod or Mac; no one is going to buy an Mac now if they know that by waiting a month they can get a much better one.

The rumor mill however continues to feed that little nagging devil on our shoulder telling us to wait just a few more weeks to see what will be announced. The issue is, there is a good chance that the thing we are expecting to get replaced is left alone, and we will have waited all that time for nothing. And when it comes to the holidays, when gifts are expected on very specific dates, waiting often isn't an option at all.

Lucky for those of you considering the last minute purchase of an Apple product for the holidays, Gizmodo has a quick roundup of purchase safety dates after which you can buy from Apple safe in the knowledge that if Unkie Steve does replace your product at Macworld, you'll be able to exchange it for a new model.

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One of the reasons Apple tries so hard to keep upcoming products under-wraps is something called the Osborne Effect. In 1983, Osborne...
 

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CyBeR

This is why I always tell everyone to never wait unless something like MacWorld is a week away. If you need a computer, get a computer. There will /always/ be a better computer that will be announced at some point after you get yours. Fact of life.

Another point is, the same is true for other companies that do announce products before they ship: you get a new computer, and then there's still the possibility that they might annouce a better one the next day.

December 22 2006 at 4:40 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Andrew

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Osborne_effect#The_Osborne_Myth

December 22 2006 at 12:14 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
bagel

I'm not quite sure the Osbourne Effect is in effect. We just have to point to the move from Freescale/IBM CPUs to Intel, which did not put a damper on Mac sales in the time between the Intel move was announced and the time the first Intel Macs came out.

This was one of the most publicized announcements of future Apple product. Everybody was carrying this news when the bomb dropped-- not just tech news, but mainstream consumer news. And still Mac sales did not flag in this period.

December 21 2006 at 11:34 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
alex

I no longer trust gizmodo, for it's "iPhone" comments....

It hasn't, and will never have, credible information.

That is all that needs to be stated on my part.....







Just pointing out the obvious.

December 21 2006 at 11:05 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Chris

Hasn't the "Osborne effect" largely been discredited?

For example:

http://www.pbs.org/cringely/pulpit/2005/pulpit_20050616_000856.html

December 21 2006 at 7:44 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
frank d

The fact is: with Apple you never know. Things tended to go slow, but quite a few surprises have happened. Like last winter. Against many indicators; about 2 months after the PB refresh; they went intel ... when my system was a week old. Thanks $2.5k.

December 21 2006 at 7:42 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Erick Erickson

I'll continue to wait to buy a new cell phone.

December 21 2006 at 7:32 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Joseph Crawford

I for one can attest this sucks ;) I bought a Quad G5 a few months back as an uneducated Mac user. I finally got sick of windows and just dropped $6000 on the best mac with 23" ACD.

About a month (maybe 2) later the Mac Pro came out. Sucks as i did not know anything about the intel switch and i wont be able to afford a Mac Pro anytime soon ;(

However the Quad G5 is amazing i just wish it was Intel and not PPC.

December 21 2006 at 6:52 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Troy McClure SF

I don't know... Considering the amount of money an Apple transaction is likely to cost, I'd like to see policies like this direct from Apple.com.

December 21 2006 at 6:32 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
mck

Link to Gizmodo post = messed up.

December 21 2006 at 6:00 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
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