Filed under: Macworld, Tips and tricks
Macworld Keynote Purchase Safety Dates
One of the reasons Apple tries so hard to keep upcoming products under-wraps is something called the Osborne Effect. In 1983, Osborne Computer announced the future release of several new machines that would far out-perform their current offerings. Unfortunately, Osborne was counting on sales from their current machines to pay for production of the next-generation products. As soon as people heard something better was in the pipeline, sales dried up, and Osborne eventually went under. The very same thing would happen if info were to get out about a new iPod or Mac; no one is going to buy an Mac now if they know that by waiting a month they can get a much better one. The rumor mill however continues to feed that little nagging devil on our shoulder telling us to wait just a few more weeks to see what will be announced. The issue is, there is a good chance that the thing we are expecting to get replaced is left alone, and we will have waited all that time for nothing. And when it comes to the holidays, when gifts are expected on very specific dates, waiting often isn't an option at all.
Lucky for those of you considering the last minute purchase of an Apple product for the holidays, Gizmodo has a quick roundup of purchase safety dates after which you can buy from Apple safe in the knowledge that if Unkie Steve does replace your product at Macworld, you'll be able to exchange it for a new model.
![TUAW [Cafepress]](http://www.blogsmithmedia.com/www.tuaw.com/media/tuaw-cafepress-promo.png)
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
Mike said 6:01PM on 12-21-2006
Link to Gizmodo post = messed up.
Reply
Troy McClure SF said 6:32PM on 12-21-2006
I don't know... Considering the amount of money an Apple transaction is likely to cost, I'd like to see policies like this direct from Apple.com.
Reply
Joseph Crawford said 6:54PM on 12-21-2006
I for one can attest this sucks ;) I bought a Quad G5 a few months back as an uneducated Mac user. I finally got sick of windows and just dropped $6000 on the best mac with 23" ACD.
About a month (maybe 2) later the Mac Pro came out. Sucks as i did not know anything about the intel switch and i wont be able to afford a Mac Pro anytime soon ;(
However the Quad G5 is amazing i just wish it was Intel and not PPC.
Reply
Erick Erickson said 7:40PM on 12-21-2006
I'll continue to wait to buy a new cell phone.
Reply
icerabbit said 7:46PM on 12-21-2006
The fact is: with Apple you never know. Things tended to go slow, but quite a few surprises have happened. Like last winter. Against many indicators; about 2 months after the PB refresh; they went intel ... when my system was a week old. Thanks $2.5k.
Reply
Chris said 10:13PM on 12-21-2006
Hasn't the "Osborne effect" largely been discredited?
For example:
http://www.pbs.org/cringely/pulpit/2005/pulpit_20050616_000856.html
Reply
Alex said 11:05PM on 12-21-2006
I no longer trust gizmodo, for it's "iPhone" comments....
It hasn't, and will never have, credible information.
That is all that needs to be stated on my part.....
Just pointing out the obvious.
Reply
bagel said 11:34PM on 12-21-2006
I'm not quite sure the Osbourne Effect is in effect. We just have to point to the move from Freescale/IBM CPUs to Intel, which did not put a damper on Mac sales in the time between the Intel move was announced and the time the first Intel Macs came out.
This was one of the most publicized announcements of future Apple product. Everybody was carrying this news when the bomb dropped-- not just tech news, but mainstream consumer news. And still Mac sales did not flag in this period.
Reply
Dave Barnes said 11:57PM on 12-21-2006
1. You will always get a "better" machine if you wait.
2. http://buyersguide.macrumors.com/ provides a good general indicator of "buy or not buy".
3. When a big Apple event approaches (e.g., Macworld San Francisco or the Worldwide Developers Conference) you might want to wait until after the event.
4. If you will you use the machine for business, then you need to do an ROI on "wait or not".
5. If the machine is for personal use, then you still have purchased nothing because a "better" machine is "just around the corner". Your abacus and slide rule combo still do the job.
,dave
P.S. "safe dates" are silly. Wait.
Reply
Andrew said 12:14AM on 12-22-2006
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Osborne_effect#The_Osborne_Myth
Reply
CyBeR said 4:40PM on 12-22-2006
This is why I always tell everyone to never wait unless something like MacWorld is a week away. If you need a computer, get a computer. There will /always/ be a better computer that will be announced at some point after you get yours. Fact of life.
Another point is, the same is true for other companies that do announce products before they ship: you get a new computer, and then there's still the possibility that they might annouce a better one the next day.
Reply