Only 146k iPhone activations?

The AP article also stated that the demand for the iPhone is down over the last 10 days, another reason why investors are worried. I think the hype was too big and this is the letdown. There is no doubt that the iPhone had one of the most successful launches in consumer electronics history, but it also seems that it was not the end all be all launch some were expecting.

1. 146,000 activations is a real number - This was reported in AT&T quarterly earnings (they get in lots of hot water lying here).

2. Activations do NOT equal sales. We will find out how many iPhones Apple sold (AAPL Financial results today).

3. Using the first 30 hours to judge overall sales is very hard to do.

4. There are different people in the stock market - traders & investors. Traders are looking to make a quick buck by buying and selling lots of times - they don't need to believe in the fundamentals of the company, they aren't willing to take a step back to get two forward. Investors tend to buy and hold - they believe in the company and stay the course through the ups and downs (hoping there are many more ups). Traders helped bid up the Apple stock price due to the iPhone frenzy - when the iPhone sales numbers didn't look so rosy - they ran for the exits.

5. I think the iPhone is terrific (I own one) and I really believe that the product will be a very successful product for Apple.

6. 146,000 seems like a low number to me - That is about 75-80 phones per location. The Apple store & AT&T stores near me sold way more than that in the first 2 days. I don't know where the disconnect is!?

Looking at 30 hours worth of activation data as well as first weekend sales is not telling. I am willing to bet there are a large number of people like me, who avoided Apple stores and AT&T outlets that first weekend because they didn't want to deal with the lines. I waited until Monday morning until I ventured to the Apple store to buy mine, once I knew the iPhones were back in stock that is... Also - it isn't like everybody lives that close to an Apple store where there would be sufficient stock to justify the trip. And - how many people would be willing to pay an early termination fee to their current provider? Sales and activation figures are going to be more interesting over the next year to year and a half as contracts expire, especially as we head into the holiday sales season. Regardless - the iPhone is an awesome piece of equipment and it is going to be a tremendous success - over time...

The activations doesn't reflect sales at all.

There were people in my line that were gonna have to mail the phone to someone and those people didn't get it in the "first few day." What about the people (like 1 friend of mine) who stood in line all night, then passed out when he got home and activated when he woke up.

And to hear the people complain, it seems that a great deal more than 2% had activation problems.

This is totally skewed and doesn't have anything to do with sales. 146,000 is not reliable towards anything to do with iPhone popularity or marketshare.

I swear there is something screwy going on here. How come my reply to crazydave appears before his was even posted now. He WAS post number 21 when I made my reply WTF?

J Davis, it hit Apple's stock price because "the market" probably didn't consider subtle nuances like AT&T's activation woes. Instead they reacted to a potential indicator that sales were what the most optimistic estimates lead them to believe.

icruise, the 500K - 700K numbers were some of the most optimistic. Other analysts were talking more like 200-300K.

BJ Nemeth has it.

>> 21 "The stock market is so damn fickle, what a bunch on idiots, or a smart group of manipulating SOBS"

I'd say you're on the money with the last part. Lots of people (with big money) likely bought in to Apple prior to the iPhone launch at 125 or even lower, now they all sold at 144. The same people want to get back on the AAPL boat at a figure as close to 125 as they can. These are the short term guys (big institutions etc) who can buy and sell massive blocks of Shares, and that as a result have quite an influence on the market.

probably a good reason to (at last) restart writing news about something else than the iphone. it may be that only very few people really care about it... and if you look at the last 100 (or what so ever) posts on tuaw, there isn't really much about something else than the iphone.

are there other people which have enough of all this iphone posts?

"20. This is silly. They either sold 500,000 phones or they didn't. If they didn't, wouldn't a smart company like Apple make sure to correct the sales count?"

No, they wouldn't. This wasn't a press release, it was AT&Ts quarterly earnings report. AT&T isn't responsible for releasing the sales figues since 1) Apple stores sold far more phones that AT&T stores and 2) its not their hardware to report. They reported the number of activations, as was their responsibility. That said, even if the number sold was FAR higher, Apple has no interest in "correcting" their figures; the figures ARE correct.

"10. I think you're all missing the bigger point ... if this was just an AT&T activation snafu, why would it impact Apple's stock price? if they *really* sold 500,000 or more iPhones then the stock price wouldn't have been affected at all."

It impacted the stock price because investors panicked, that's generally all that is necessary for a stock to drop. Apple has their OWN quarterly earnings report tomorrow and one of two things will happen; they will announce lower than expected sales in which case everyone that sold their stock today (causing the price drop) will be quite glad that they did so or they will announce great numbers, in which case anyone that is smart enough to buy early tomorrow while the price is $8 lower than at opening today will be quite stoked.

I worry that the numbers reported will indeed appear low, since Apple's quarter also ended on the 30th, so they will include only 30 hours of sales, tho I am certain that they will be higher than 146,000.

Only time will tell, but I'm holding onto my stock.

edit: sorry for the tripple post

>>20. This is silly. They either sold 500,000 phones or they didn't. If they didn't, wouldn't a smart company like Apple make sure to correct the sales count? >10. I think you're all missing the bigger point ... if this was just an AT&T activation snafu, why would it impact Apple's stock price? if they *really* sold 500,000 or more iPhones then the stock price wouldn't have been affected at all.