4g posts

Plenty of discussions about the next revision of the iPhone have referred to the as-yet hypothetical device as the "iPhone 4G." As many of our readers have correctly pointed out, not only is this nickname completely unofficial, it's also highly unlikely to be the name of the next iPhone.

It made sense to call the second-generation iPhone the iPhone 3G, as the addition of a faster 3G wireless chipset and antenna was in many ways the defining feature of the device. The next iPhone, the iPhone 3GS, once again has its distinctive feature spelled out right in the name: "S" for speed, since the 3GS is a faster version of its predecessor.

So why won't the next iPhone be called the iPhone 4G? For a pretty good reason, actually: as of right now, worldwide deployment of faster, ultra-broadband 4G wireless networks isn't even in its infancy -- it's barely past the fetal stage. In the US, Verizon and Sprint are testing 4G coverage in some major cities, but they're still a long way off from nationwide deployment. AT&T won't begin deployment of 4G networks until 2011, and T-Mobile is even farther behind in the 4G race.

As for the rest of the world, only Japan, South Korea, Norway, Russia, Sweden, and Taiwan have even begun the first steps toward a 4G rollout. We will probably see a handset called the iPhone 4G as soon as there's enough 4G wireless coverage to warrant putting a 4G antenna and chipset in it. Based on the current rate of 4G network deployments in the States, to say nothing of the rest of the world, that's at least a year or more in the future.

Given that the next iPhone is almost certainly not going to be called the iPhone 4G, why is everybody under the sun calling it that anyway? Read on to find out.

Do you know what word Dave Caolo is hearing in his sleep? Tablet. What phrase is trending mightily on Google Search? Tablet. What is every Apple fanboy and fangirl dreaming of for...um...some new gift-giving holiday in the March/April timeframe? Tablet. It's what good little geeks hope to find on their doorstep if their credit cards are not maxed out and Apple ships on the rumored schedule.

In addition to bringing world peace, universal vaccination, and rainbow puppy unicorns, the tablet carries its own compliment of mobile issues: specifically, how and how well will it connect? This is a question we were kicking around this morning in the TUAW chatroom, after encountering a number of speculative reports in our morning RSS feed. Rather than predict which way Apple is going to go, we thought we'd run down the most likely possibilities.

We all agree that a tablet would be, at a minimum, no less connected than an iPod touch. That is, none of us think that Apple will ship a tablet sans Wi-Fi connectivity. And with McDonalds now offering free Wi-Fi at over 11,000 restaurants world wide, let alone sponsored municipal Wi-Fi, new Wi-Fi for pay services on airplanes, and other commuter-based Wi-Fi services, you can easily imagine an urban tablet that works in most major cities around the globe.

A Wi-Fi-only approach, though, cuts out a lot of possibilities for tablet use on the go, when users move away from cities. 3G/4G access, similar to the kinds of deals currently offered on Dell netbooks and laptops, might be a way for Apple to go as well. Of course, that would involve signing up for 2-year contracts at outrageous prices (it doesn't matter who does the service, the prices are outrageous across vendors). That could seriously put off existing iPhone contract holders, who might not be willing to expand their obligations to another multi-year commitment.

Gene Munster, the Piper Jaffrey senior research analyst who usually hits the nail on the head when it comes to Apple forecasts, thinks that Apple will move to multiple U.S. carriers within the next year. He believe that this will happen next summer, which has been the time when Apple has introduced new models of the iPhone.

Munster noted that having multiple carriers in a market has helped Apple to achieve greater success in terms of market penetration. He pointed to France as an example; originally, Apple inked an exclusive arrangement with Orange. When it moved to a multi-carrier deal, Apple's market share in France jumped to about the 40 percent range. In the U.S., the iPhone's market share is only in the mid-teens.

Many industry pundits expect the next iPhone carrier to be Verizon, since they are beginning a transition to a new, iPhone-compatible 4G network (LTE) in the next year. This would make the transition rather simple for Apple, since they wouldn't have to design an EV-DO iPhone, but instead just use the current hardware design.

Update: Per TUAW reader Ben C., the Verizon 4G transition is not expected to be completed until 2013. In addition, a CDMA-based iPhone would need to be deployed for Verizon. Thanks for the correction and explanation.

[via LoopInsight]

Apparently yesterday's poll about the release date of Mac OS X 10.5.8's made some waves in the Apple swimming pool, since we've seen over 6,400 responses in about 15 hours. That poll also made TUAW reader Clinton hungry for a new poll. He wrote:

"Could you do a poll? There is so much speculation about Verizon and a 4G network and the possibility of iPhone going to that platform once it is up and running in 2010. I would like to see a poll to substantiate all the speculation that AT&T customer will leave for Verizon's network if iPhone is available on Verizon's new 4G."

Along with that explanation, Clinton also provided a question and several multiple choice answers. Since he had done most of the hard work, we couldn't help but run this poll. If none of the answers meet your needs, or if you have additional comments to make, please use the comments link below.

AT&T today announced that it will begin upgrading its network to the faster High Speed Packet Access (HSPA) 7.2 technology later this year. The 3G network upgrade will not be completed until 2011, at which time AT&T plans to start deploying the 4G Long Term Evolution (LTE) network. This is contrary to previous roadmaps, which showed HSPA+ (20+ Mbps) deployment occurring prior to the move to LTE.

Devices compatible with HSPA 7.2 3G networks are capable of a theoretical peak download speed of 7.2 Mbps (megabits per second), or almost a megabyte per second. While the current iPhone 3G does not support HSPA 7.2, many of the rumors circulating about a next-generation device include HSPA 7.2 compatibility. AT&T's press release also noted that "multiple HSPA 7.2-compatible laptop cards and smartphones" will be available later this year.

The AT&T network is currently undergoing other upgrades, to the tune of over $17 billion of capital investment. AT&T is still deploying more 850 MHz spectrum for better coverage and in-building 3G reception. The 'Death Star' is adding fiber-optic connectivity and more capacity to many cell sites in anticipation of the higher bandwidth required by HSPA 7.2 and LTE, and the plan is to add almost 2,100 new cell sites in 2009.

AT&T also noted that they're working on customer trials of AT&T 3G MicroCell, using femtocells to improve in-building wireless coverage.

If USA Today says it, it must be truthy -- hence the enthusiasm for today's report that sources close to the discussions are confirming an ongoing confab between Apple and Verizon on the topic of bringing everyone's favorite smartphone to America's most popular cell carrier. The future prospect of a Verizon iPhone, originally rumored and countermanded for this year, has perked up the ears of AT&T naysayers around the USA.

Although the paper cites Verizon's CDMA network as the target for the iPhone deployment option, most other observers (including Verizon executives) have noted the upcoming LTE/4G network, built atop the GSM standard that the iPhone already knows and loves, as the likely deployment environment. Robert swooned over the possibility of an LTE-enabled iPhone back in February; of course, way back in 2007, Verizon's attitude towards Apple's phone was far less conciliatory.

Even though AT&T is eager to hold onto its exclusive deal for iPhone in the US as long as it can -- and there's plenty of financial motivation already -- there's enough meat to this report to make me believe that Verizon-Apple negotiations are more than a stick to push the incumbent carrier toward a better deal. Getting earlier access to LTE (AT&T's buildout is at least a year behind VZW's) and more domestic options for the phone would be a win for Apple, as would a more generous revenue sharing plan with AT&T.

What's not clear to me is the percentage of would-be iPhone buyers who have so far avoided the phone because of carrier exclusivity and the two-year contract requirement. If having Verizon as a choice would flip you from the 'no' to the 'heck yeah' column, pipe up.

Update: Just discussed the Verizon rumors with Randall on TechVi.