So I was chatting with Cory and we started talking about what the iPhone will or will not bring. Will it ship on Thursday or not? Will Apple charge for it? Here's a round-up of our outstanding SDK concerns:
Will it ship? Rumors seem to be split between a no-show and a preliminary alpha or beta release. The fact that Apple has promised a "roadmap" rather than a "roll-out" indicates that things aren't as settled for shipping as we might hope.
How much will it cost? Is this going to be freely available like XCode or are we looking at a paid ADC-only release, like the early Leopard seeds? I wouldn't be surprised by ADC-only but I certainly am hoping for a wider release. The iPhone is a perfect hobbyists platform and limiting development to "enterprise" would be a sad move.
What shape will it take? It looks like a given at this point (just watch me be wrong!) that we're going to see an Objective-C 2.0-based XCode development environment with access to "blessed" frameworks and headers. There will likely be a simulator and a way to transfer by cable to the iPhone for testing.
What limits are there going to be? Will devs get access to the cell radio? Or does Apple intend to limit development to Internet-only? The smart money is riding on the latter option. I don't see the jailbreak community, with its full suite of iPhone applications and services going away any time soon--especially if Apple limits access to core iPhone features. That being said, I'm pretty sure that Apple will not interfere with any standard networking calls. So you should be able to use the WiFi and EDGE connections and services like Bonjour to interact with other computers on your LAN.
How will iTunes delivery work? My guess is that certain approved providers (like TuneCore for music) will be able to access store distribution for a fee, possibly a very large fee. I do not think that Apple will be involved in vetting individual software items. I also think that the legal agreements before you can distribute will be extremely complex, particularly when it comes to things like warranties and liability. I'd be stunned if this delivery system was in place any earlier than WWDC -- and possibly later.
What about that whole "enterprise" iPhone thing? It may just be more Exchange-type integration. Hard to say. Layton Duncan thought that it might mean the event might touch on non-iPhone news, with the recent dropping of the Xserve RAID line.
So that's a roundup of things we discussed. What are your takes on these issues? And what issues did Cory & I miss? Let us know in the comments.
Time is running out for Toshiba and friends; the high definition format wars are almost over now officially over. HD DVD hasn't found the footing it needed to earn the support of retailers and studios alike, and it seems that Sony's champion, Blu-Ray, is going to win the day.
So what does that mean for Apple users? Several years ago, Apple latched onto Blu-Ray as a format, but aside from an MCE Blu-Ray drive, we still haven't seen HD media used in any of Apple's products. There have been plenty of rumors (aren't there always?), but whether it's because they want to sell HD content in iTunes or for some other reason, a Blu-Ray drive to replace the SuperDrive hasn't happened yet.
Which leaves us wondering: now that we've seemingly got a winner, will Apple step up with the Blu gear? Of course, the MacBook Air doesn't even have a drive, and we're sure Apple would love to have content distributed only through iTunes and Apple TV. But surely consumers still have a need for physical media -- will Apple now take advantage of its early-advocacy position on Blu-Ray and update the hardware?
Are we going to see new Cinema displays by the end of the month? If so, they might look like this-- it's a nice-looking mockup posted by Ben over on the redrant forums. It is interesting that Cinema displays are almost starting to match up to the Beatles as the one thing we hope to get from Apple but never do. For years now, people have been hoping for an update to these things-- an installed iSight (that one's actually been "a lock" for years) and even a touchscreen display. But Apple hasn't budged-- the last time they updated the Cinemas, it was to drop the prices two years ago.
Yup, it's been since then that a Cinema update has seemed to be just around the corner. You can only think of so many ways to update monitors, but it seems that Apple hasn't, so far, liked any of the ideas enough to put them on sale.
If you're using version 1.1.3 of the iPhone or iPod touch-with-January-Upgrade , you'll probably encountered Web Clips. Web Clips add home screen icons that lead to your favorite sites. It's easy enough to make Web Clips, just tap the "+" button at the bottom of any MobileSafari webpage and choose Add to Home Screen from the pop-up menu (and yes, we're working on one for TUAW).
Battlefield 2142 is already on the Apple Store, along with all the other games EA has released on the Mac, but we haven't heard anything official about Battlefield 3 yet, for any platform. That's why DigitalBattles was so surprised to find a list of Battlefield 3 features in a document meant for investors. And the most interesting "feature" on the list was this: "Windows Vista and OS X." That's right, if the leaked document is true, it appears EA wants to release Battlefield 3 simultaneously on OS X and Vista. And not on XP. That's what I'm talking about!
Of course, EA wasn't real happy with all the speculation, but they didn't actually deny anything. And as DB points out, the investor document didn't say that XP wouldn't be supported, it only specified Vista and OS X.
But still, if you told me earlier this year that Battlefield 3 would be released on OS X and not XP, I would have laughed in your face. If EA really is planning to bring out a top tier, anticipated title like this simultaneously on OS X, they might be able to redeem themselves to Mac gamers yet. Sure, I'm still angry at them for buying out BioWare, but brand new games on the Mac is good for everyone.
Does anyone else think it's a little crazy that we're already 1/4 of the way through October and we still don't have an official release date for Leopard? It'll almost assuredly be at the very end of the month, but in terms of date and time, no one has an official clue.
For a Piper Jaffray analyst, however, all signs point to October 26th (and gwhiz adds 6 p.m. on that Friday afternoon just like the iPhone launch). Makes a lot of sense to me-- Friday is clearly a great day to launch a product, as it gives Apple the weekend to claim sales figures, as well as gives us consumers a chance to break open the box and get it installed right away. Analyst Gene Munster says, also, that it's the end of the first month of a fiscal quarter, which Apple likes for boosting sales-- Tiger released in the same situation.
Plus, you know, the 25th is a full moon, so there's even more fuel for the speculatory fire. I agree that the 26th sounds pretty convincing, but of course we won't know for sure until Steve wants us to.
Perhaps the most interesting and mysterious two words heard yesterday during Apple's big conference call were "product transition." The biggest surprise of the call was that Apple was setting its profit guidance much lower than expected, and the two big causes they gave for doing that were "higher commodity costs" (because they believe they got a good deal on iPhone components this quarter) and these mysterious "product transitions." So what's the deal there?
Almost unanimously, the analysts are predicting a product shakeup, specifically in the iPod family. Ars says multitouch is coming, Forbes suggests that Apple tipped its hand to upcoming product changes, and Apple Insider has Ben Reitzes, who was the first analyst to question the low guidance, suggesting that an iMac redesign or "ultra-portable" may be in the works.
But the majority of analysts say it's the iPod that Apple will focus on. The iPod has been waiting in the wings, watching the iPhone and OS X get all kinds of pretty updates, and call it what you want-- the halo effect or trickle down-- the iPod is ready for a refresh. ThinkSecret comes right out and says it: we'll see a 6G iPod as early as the first half of August.
Whatever this "product transition" might be, odds are we'll hear about it sooner than later. Apple's execs made it clear that by the time they did another call in October, everything would be made much clearer.
Ryan from Cybernet (thanks!) dropped a note about his find of a new Apple patent. These things spring up faster than mushrooms (or rabbits, depending on your preference for down home expressions), but sometimes they are a good indication of what Apple is at least considering producing in the future.
This one's all about the iPod, by the looks of it, and giving it the ability to "wirelessly control and access a media server." Ryan speculates that means iTunes, which would mean that you could listen to streaming music from your iTunes install, through your iPod. But I think he's thinking small on this one-- what if Apple wanted to create an iPod that actually hooked up to AppleTV. You could sit in your bedroom watching the latest Daily Show, streaming from the AppleTV in the other room, while someone else watched the latest episode of Lost on the television. The possibilities there are very interesting-- combine a widescreen iPod with a wireless function like this (and we might as well throw in MobileSafari, right?), and you're looking at a very droolworthy multimedia gadget.
Of course, as with all Apple patents, this is total and complete speculation-- this patent may never actually be built, and even if it is, we might be looking at something planned years from now. But it's always fun to guess at what Apple's doing next.
One of the features I'm most looking forward to on the new iPhone is the new "Type What I Mean" (or TWIM, a la DWIM) auto-correction. With TWIM, the iPhone automatically scans your input looking for common misspellings and letter inversions. Yes, I can certainly see where this can be a problem when the iPhone starts correcting things that weren't wrong but I'm pretty sure that Apple is smart enough to include a "learn" feature so your Saduns don't turn into Sudans.
Now, Elizabeth noted that the release date was supposedly slated for October 31st, but I don't see that anywhere on the page. As far as I can tell, Amazon is just saying "October 2007." That's not real different from what we've heard before, and between you and me, I wouldn't make any major plans based on Amazon release dates alone. Then again, it's just another brick in the wall of evidence-- the odds are better all the time that we'll see this cat by Halloween.
True confession time. I've never really gotten Philip Swann aka "Swanni", the guy over at TVPredictions.com who tries to forecast the TV industry. Today, TUAW reader Josh tipped us off that Swanni was predicting-i the end-i of the AppleTV-i, so I linked-i over to see what Swanni had to say.
Allison Moore writes that Apple TV is dead--but it just doesn't know it yet. Blaming poor retail sales (based on unnamed retail sources), Swanni predicts that Apple will pull the product off the market next year. To date, Apple has not released sales figures on Apple TV.
I think what Swanni misses (besides overlooking the new $399 160 GB Apple TVs now for sale) is the point that Apple TV has never actually fully launched. Until we see High Def content at the iTunes store and a way to link Apple TV to an affordable PVR solution, Apple TV just won't make full sense to the consumer. To date, Jobs has hinted at upcoming announcements for the content and third party vendors are only just now marrying their tuner lines into technology (like the Elgato Turbo.264 and the Miglia TVMax) that connects that content with Apple TV.
Is Apple TV dead? I just don't think so. I think Internet-sourced content is still in its infancy and that Apple is bold for jumping in so early and (at least for the moment) so confidently.
Back during the Cold War there were experts on the Soviet Union called "kremlinologists" who would study, in exhausting detail, any information that leaked out from behind the Iron Curtain for clues about what the Russians might be up to. Well, now I think the guys over at Actioncorp.net have earned the title of "iPhoneologist" for the thoroughly detailed examination of the Keynote for clues about Apple's forthcoming gadget. Interesting tidbits include more information (and reasonable speculation) on the calendar app, Google maps, ringtones and more. This YouTube video is well produced and definitely worth a a viewing.
For the sake of not trampling trademarks, I guess we can no longer refer to the feverishly-anticipated Apple phone as an 'iPhone.' Nevertheless, no matter what you want to call it, Ryan Block has written an interesting analysis of why everyone wants an Applephone so badly. I think it's a great look at the dynamics of the industry and what a phone from Apple could mean for it, in part because Ryan includes a down-to-earth list of realities about the device. The list includes things such as questionable battery life and how Apple's minimalist design philosophies might not yield a perfect phone that will be adored by all - that is, if the phone even exists in the first place.
If you aren't quite tired of hearing about the Applephone just yet and you've been hoping for some more sensible insight into the possibilities of this much-rumored device, check out Ryan's post for a refreshing dose of speculative realism.
Leander Kahney and Pete Mortensen at Wired's Cult of Mac have penned Ten Questions Apple Must Answer in 2007, an article which thankfully delves beyond the typical 'where's my iPhone?' to examine interesting aspects of Apple's future. Leander and Pete briefly discuss that second campus Apple recently bought, what they see as the company's relatively stagnating industrial design, where the iPod can go next and - of course - whether Apple can stay successful once Jobs inevitably steps down. The article is a nice, short summary of many of the key points Apple very well has to wrangle with during the next year, and it will be interesting to see how this all plays out.
Any and every rumor is in the air about the iPhone these days, but this one is probably the first of the recent batch that sounds pretty interesting. The mobile phone market is a pretty tough customer - carriers need to lock their customers down, and there are plenty of handset makers who already have large stakes in their turf. Apple has already stepped up to bat - twice - by trying to partner with one of those handset makers, and I think it'd be difficult to argue that they got anywhere past even first base.
Considering Apple's strengths - making great hardware and software - in light of their past failures in working with Motorola in this space, it seems entirely plausible for the company to aim for the stands on their third time at bat. By both developing and - this is the key - selling the iPhone all on their own, Apple not only gets to design everything their way, but they get to sell it to a much broader audience by offering it as an unlocked device through their own retail stores, rather than as a subsidized tool to force customers to either sign or break contracts, depending on their circumstances. This means Apple gets to flex their engineering muscles and rake 100% of their own profits - not a bad prospect for a company who is used to working solo in the hardware department, and by now is probably feeling the heat from sexy music handsets like Verizon's Chocolate.
For now, however, this is simply my attempt at applying some logic to a rumor. It sounds possible, but only January's Macworld (or 'the first half of next year') can provide anything to bank on.
Time is running out for Toshiba and friends; 
If you're using version 1.1.3 of the iPhone or iPod touch-with-January-Upgrade , you'll probably encountered Web Clips. Web Clips add home screen icons that lead to your favorite sites. It's easy enough to make Web Clips, just tap the "+" button at the bottom of any MobileSafari webpage and choose Add to Home Screen from the pop-up menu (and yes, we're
Battlefield 2142 is already on the Apple Store, along with 
Does anyone else think it's a little crazy that we're already 1/4 of the way through October and we still don't have an official release date for Leopard? It'll almost assuredly be at the very end of the month, but in terms of date and time, no one has an official clue.
Perhaps the most interesting and mysterious two words heard yesterday during Apple's big conference call were "product transition." The biggest surprise of the call was that Apple was setting its profit guidance much lower than expected, and the two big causes they gave for doing that were "higher commodity costs" (because they believe they got a good deal on iPhone components this quarter) and these mysterious "product transitions." So what's the deal there?
True confession time. I've never really gotten Philip Swann aka "Swanni", the guy over at TVPredictions.com who tries to forecast the TV industry. Today, TUAW reader Josh tipped us off that Swanni was 
For the sake of 
Leander Kahney and Pete Mortensen at Wired's Cult of Mac have penned 
Any and every rumor is in the air about the 
