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Filed under: Hardware, Wireless, Apple Financial, Apple, iPhone

Munster: Apple to sell 500,000 units of iPhone 3G S this weekend

Everyone's favorite Apple analyst, Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray, is positively bullish on Apple and the iPhone.

In a forecast released today and reported in AppleInsider, Munster says he expects Apple to sell a half-million units of the iPhone 3G S this weekend. This is much more than the 270,000 first-generation iPhones sold in the first weekend in 2007, but pales in comparison to the 1 million mark set last year with the release of the iPhone 3G.

The difference this year? When the iPhone 3G was released in 2008, the new equipment was also accompanied by a drop in price and availability in 21 countries. For new users, the 3G S is the same price as the 3G, and the release of the 3G S tomorrow will only happen in 8 key market countries.

Munster's other prognostications include a total of 3 million iPhones sold in June for a quarterly total of 5 million, and an estimate of 7 million sold in the upcoming September quarter. He continues to rate AAPL as a buy, and has a $180 target share price for Apple.

Filed under: Analysis / Opinion, Rumors

Munster: Apple suppliers negotiating parts deals for sub-$700 tablet

In a research note to clients, Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster suggested that Apple is developing a 7-to-10-inch tablet priced at $500 to $700, perhaps ready for the public in 2010.

According to AppleInsider, Munster's contacts in the supply chain haven't seen a prototype of the device, but are in discussions with Apple to supply components for something at that size and price point.

Munster believes that Apple could adjust the iPhone SDK to allow for multiple display resolutions. Apps like Safari and Mail, he says, would benefit from the additional screen real estate. He also mentions that with the larger screen, more than one traditional iPhone app could be run at once.

As for timing, Munster suggests that the device could be ready next year, and possibly be subsidized by a wireless carrier.

As with most analysis of this kind, this is two parts hearsay, one part "interpretation of conference call statements," and seven parts wishful thinking. In providing technical details about a product that may not exist, Munster is writing checks that Apple might not be able to cash.

Is this something you'd buy? Is it even going to happen? Sound off in comments.

Filed under: Apple Financial

Analyst Roundup: Morgan Stanley pooh-poohs, iPhone sales looking bright

Morgan Stanley analysts yesterday cut AAPL's price target to $95, mostly citing the weak economy. They said that despite price cuts, extreme interest in the iPhone, Mac users' high satisfaction, and marketshare momentum for Mac sales, the quarter will be slow for Apple.

Blog Notable Calls said it wouldn't have been surprised if AAPL slipped by five points yesterday, but instead the stock gained 34 cents a share before the closing bell.

On a brighter note, Kaufman Bros. analyst Shaw Wu sees promise in iPhone gift cards, according to Fortune's Apple 2.0 blog. As with any gift card, Apple collects revenue from the customer up front. However, Apple can't report the revenue until the phone is activated, which will likely be during the first quarter of next year.

Wu anticipates Apple will sell 6 million iPhone handsets during the company's fiscal Q1 2009, which includes October, November and December 2008. Morgan Stanley analyst Kathryn Huberty thinks Apple will sell only 4 million that same quarter.

In the same Apple 2.0 story, Philip Elmer-DeWitt notes that Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster looked at how many units Walmart might sell, after pricing details leaked on Monday. He conjectures that each Walmart store could sell 1,284 iPhones in 2009, accounting for nearly 10 percent of Apple's worldwide iPhone sales.

AAPL was up by $2.50 or so in midday trading.

Filed under: Analysis / Opinion, Apple Financial

Munster: Apple overestimated Q3 margin impacts

Gene Munster is skeptical that Apple's guidance of lower margins for the rest of the year in its Q3 conference call back in July, and expects the company to continue to outperform expectations.

The Piper Jaffray analyst said that lower prices for NAND flash memory will offset any reductions in price for new iPods introduced last month.

Munster speculates that even with an introduction of a sub-$1,000 MacBook before the end of the year, Apple's margins will remain healthy. Yes, it will have an impact, but not to the degree that Apple execs hinted in their phone call: Munster thinks margins would only fall to around 30 percent.

In fact, Munster says "investors would see the lack of redesigned, lower-priced Macs as a more significant negative than they would a 30 percent GM guide in the December quarter." (Emphasis mine.)

He reiterated his "buy" rating. Munster's price target for AAPL is still higher than many others (at least recently), at $250 per share.

[Via Ars and AppleInsider.]

Filed under: Analysis / Opinion, Apple Financial

Apple expected to beat the Street in September quarter

Another Munster Prediction!We recently reported on Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster's expectations of phenomenal iPhone sales over the next year, and now he's back with more happy Apple news!

As reported on Macsimum News, Munster looked at preliminary July sales results from NPD Group, did some extrapolation, and came up with numbers showing that both iPod and Mac sales could beat Wall Street's expectations for the quarter ending September 30, 2008.

Munster's prognostications show Apple selling 2.7 - 2.9 million Macs, which is up 28% year-over-year from the same period in 2007 and beating Wall Street's expectations of 2.65 million units. He also expects iPod sales to hit 10.7 - 11.2 million units, which is slightly above Wall Street's 10.8 million unit guesstimate on the high end.

If Apple happens to hit the high end of these estimates (2.9 million Macs, 11.2 million iPods, 4.1 million iPhones, and a 32% gross margin), Munster calculates that Apple could post earnings per share in the range of $1.19, much better than the Street estimate of $1.11.

TUAW will definitely be following this monster news during the earnings call in October.

[via Macsimum News]

Filed under: Analysis / Opinion, Apple Financial, iPhone

Analyst: 45M iPhones in 2009

Despite issues with the iPhone 3G -- less-than-stellar battery life, dropped calls, crashes, etc. -- stock market analysts are very bullish on Apple's product.

BusinessWeek reported that Piper Jaffray tech analyst Gene Munster is forecasting sales of 13 million iPhone 3Gs in 2008, and a whopping 45 million on 2009. That's considerably higher than what other analysts are proposing, which is in the range of 11 million in 2008 and "only" 26 million in 2009.

The BusinessWeek article also mentioned Apple's new production goals point to 40 to 45 million handsets between now and August of 2009, which fits into Munster's forecast nicely. Of course, supply is only half of the picture. Demand for the 3G depends on Apple and carriers fixing issues quickly, decent rate plans from carriers, and killer apps in the App Store.

As Apple rolls into large and previously untouched markets such as Russia and China, forges deals with other retailers such as Best Buy, and works with developers to bring hot applications to the App Store, we'll see how the forecasts compare with reality.

How accurate do you think the projections are? Share your opinion in a comment.

Filed under: Analysis / Opinion, Rumors

Piper Jaffray analyst predicts Sept. MacBook updates

Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster is speculating that Apple will hold a special event in early September to announce new iPods and MacBooks, according to a research note he released.

Munster is bullish on seeing Apple enter the sub-$1,000 market for its MacBook line, and has been saying so since last month. He also anticipates a new form factor for the MacBook Pro line, noting that its exterior design (and that of its predecessor, the PowerBook G4) has only slightly changed over the last five-and-a-half years.

In the same note, he suggested that larger-capacity iPod shuffles and nanos are on the way, but with no change in pricing. He said that the iPod touch could even be redesigned and priced at $199.

Looking into the future, Munster said he thinks a touchscreen Mac portable isn't ready now, but could be available closer to 2010, while a redesigned (even smaller) MacBook Air could hit store shelves next year.

[Via Barron's.]

Filed under: Apple Corporate, Apple Financial, iPhone

How much are you worth to Apple?

Think you're worth 3 bucks a month? Or even 11 bucks a month? Those are the figures being bandied around today over at Seeking Alpha regarding the secret details of AT&T's revenue sharing with Apple. The post suggests that AT&T may be paying Apple $3/month for AT&T customers who switch to the iPhone and $11/month for iPhone customers who have switched carriers to AT&T. They cite a recent Piper Jaffray research note authored by analyst Gene Munster.

That sounds like a lot of money to me (especially for the switching customers) heading off to Apple along with the revenues on the physical iPhone sales.

Filed under: Analysis / Opinion, Apple TV

Apple TV analysis from Piper Jaffray

While you're waiting for the Apple TV to ship any day now, MacNN has some interesting snippets of analysis on the device from Piper Jaffray's senior analyst, Gene Munster. Of note, there are a surprising estimate of 118 million 'active' iTunes users compared to Windows Media Center's 12 million users. That's one heck of a lead Apple has, especially for technically being later to the 'media center' game. Still, while some may view the Apple TV as an expensive piece of the Apple entertainment pie, Munster's analysis brings an interesting perspective to the table that's certainly worth a read if you're still on the fence.

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