Filed under: Analysis / Opinion, iPod Family
Bill Gates: iPod Just a Passing Fad
Poor Bill just can't accept the fact that Apple finally kicked his ass at something in the global marketplace.In an article published Thursday by the German daily Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, Gates is quoted as saying "I don't think the success of the iPod can continue in the long term, however good Apple may be. I think you can draw parallels here with the computer — here, too, Apple was once extremely strong with its Macintosh and graphic user interface, like with the iPod today, and then lost its position ." The article cites mobile phones with an ever-growing list of multimedia capabilities as being one of the biggest threats to Apple's portable music player domination.
I'm still not buying it. I am not convinced that 70% of the portable-music-player-buying population wants to use their phone as an MP3 player all the time. Would it be convenient to have that option some of the time? Sure, but I don't think the phone is going to become the center of anyone's digital lifestyle anytime soon. You are, of course, free to disagree.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
Blair Robinson said 4:18PM on 6-16-2005
If the phone is designed from the begining to be an mp3 phone, I think it could have potential. For example take something that has roughly the form factor of the iPod mini, where the click wheel is located on a slider or on flip, and can be moved to reveal a number pad underneath. When the slider is up, its basicly and iPod, when its down it pauses your song, and the display changes to a phone.
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random said 4:18PM on 6-16-2005
Passing fad? Bill Gates should be worried about the fact that the iPod is treading dangerously close to becoming a "generic" term. The same way facial tissues are universally called Kleenex, copier machines are called Xerox, and whirlpool tubs as Jacuzzis. This is why the title of that one recent article was "iPods can make you deaf" instead of "MP3 players can make you deaf".
Besides, this fad has lasted over three years.
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Jerry Zigmont said 4:18PM on 6-16-2005
I think people don't want to see certain technologies merged. That's why the TV and the computer have remained separate.
An iPod would be welcome at a vacation retreat (i.e. Canyon Ranch) where a phone/MP3 player would not.
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Joe Stillwell said 4:18PM on 6-16-2005
I would hate to be at a party where someone is playing tunes off there phone through a sound system and then their phone rings. If MS came out with an MP3 player/HD Video player the size of an iPod that could be docked into a home theater system then I might be worried.
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Joe Stillwell said 4:18PM on 6-16-2005
I would hate to be at a party where someone is playing tunes off there phone through a sound system and then their phone rings. If MS came out with an MP3 player/HD Video player the size of an iPod that could be docked into a home theater system then I might be worried.
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iFelix said 4:18PM on 6-16-2005
I have a phone which can play mp3s, do I use it as a mp3 player (even though it came with headphones) no, it's a phone.
Multi-function devices are jack of all trades and masters of none.
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Daniel Bergey said 4:18PM on 6-16-2005
No, the TV and computer have remained separate because they are used differently. Specifically, the TV is primarily used at long range for relaxation, and the computer is primarily used up close for productivity.
This is the same reason why the iPod will never become a video player. As cool as that idea sounds, movies and music are used too differently. As Steve has said, people listen to music all the time, while they do other things. By and large, people tend to watch movies when they can give their full attention, which isn't most of the time.
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Jack said 4:18PM on 6-16-2005
Bill Gates was promoting the concept 'intelligent devices' within the last 5 years. Wireless devices such as *GASP* kitchen magnet that can flash preprogrammed information. And other doohikey's that are somewhat neat, but begged to ask the simple question "Who asks for it and who cares..."
Apple comes along. Creates a device that expands on the already popular concept of portable music. And makes it so easy to use, the transition from cassette walkman or discman is pretty transparent. The result? A successful product to say the least!
Microsoft has routinely dictated to users how they should deal with the computing world. When in my life have I ever needed a 'smart' kicthen magnet? Apple has looked at what people need and created products to fill that need. iPods make sense; period.
An iPod is as much a passing fad as Windows Security Updates are a 'passing fad'.
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Visual Snack said 4:18PM on 6-16-2005
Computers have been inching toward the entertainment center for years now.
I think we're seeing right now that people, in fact, DO want their TVs and computers squished together. I think technical/economic feasibility has more to do with TV and computers being separate up to this point more than consumer preference.
Personally, my TV watching would be nearly nonexistent if it weren't for the DVR unit attached to it. (Essentially attaching a hard drive to a television) Now, instead of having to be home when the Simpons is on, I can watch it whenever I choose, and without having to deal with clunky video tapes or infuriating VCR programming setups.
I think that the combination of complementary technologies is inevitable, and that people will gravitate to intuitive, graceful implementations of such devices.
Being cost-effective wouldn't hurt either.
- rick
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Pedro said 4:18PM on 6-16-2005
passing fad?! That is like saying that cell phones are a passing fad! Portable music has been popular from its conception, from walkmans to ghetto blasters... portable music is here to stay, and the ipod, being the most popular of the breed right now is going to stay on top as long as apple keeps producing them.
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Brett said 4:18PM on 6-16-2005
I am eagerly awaiting the release of Sony Ericsson's upcoming walkman phone, and the reason being that if I can carry fewer devices and get the same results (phone usage, listening to my tunes), that's a good thing.
That being said, I still don't think a phone could replace the iPod, much like the iPod Shuffle does not replace my 10GB iPod. It's just something more convenient to use in certain situations.
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faentur said 4:18PM on 6-16-2005
Why is it that I am not surprised. Bill Gates thinks Smart Phones will take over the world. Everything that man says has to be taken with a rather large grain of Microsoft flavored salt. He is the head of a company that missed the portable music player (and to some extent portable video player) market. Name one major market pap/pmp that uses a version of windows on it? Archos? Apple? RCA? Anyone? I don't know of one. But they do make software for SmartPhones. So that must be why they are going to take over the portable music player market, because Microsoft makes the software for them! Now I understand...
Let's look at this from the other side for a second. Do any of you out there have a convergence device that you really really like? One that is both as good a phone (easy to dial, voice dial, etc.) as a stand alone cell phone, AND as good a PDA as a stand alone pda? I sure haven't found one. I have owned 3 of them so far, the samsung Palm phone, a treo 600, and I currently use a Sidekick II, and I have to say, they all are disappointing to one degree or another. As far as music players go, I am on my 3rd iPod. And I have no problem saying that I have never seen/heard a convergence device that works nearly as well as any of my iPods. When someone comes out with one, I will be first in line for it. Something tells me that it won't have a start menu though.
Has apple dropped the ball in the past, yes. Sure they have. But like they always say on the TV commercials for stock investments, past performance is no guarantee of future performance.
/still waiting for a newton with a phone and iPod built in...
-Faentur
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faentur said 4:18PM on 6-16-2005
Why is it that I am not surprised. Bill Gates thinks Smart Phones will take over the world. Everything that man says has to be taken with a rather large grain of Microsoft flavored salt. He is the head of a company that missed the portable music player (and to some extent portable video player) market. Name one major market pap/pmp that uses a version of windows on it? Archos? Apple? RCA? Anyone? I don't know of one. But they do make software for SmartPhones. So that must be why they are going to take over the portable music player market, because Microsoft makes the software for them! Now I understand...
Let's look at this from the other side for a second. Do any of you out there have a convergence device that you really really like? One that is both as good a phone (easy to dial, voice dial, etc.) as a stand alone cell phone, AND as good a PDA as a stand alone pda? I sure haven't found one. I have owned 3 of them so far, the samsung Palm phone, a treo 600, and I currently use a Sidekick II, and I have to say, they all are disappointing to one degree or another. As far as music players go, I am on my 3rd iPod. And I have no problem saying that I have never seen/heard a convergence device that works nearly as well as any of my iPods. When someone comes out with one, I will be first in line for it. Something tells me that it won't have a start menu though.
Has apple dropped the ball in the past, yes. Sure they have. But like they always say on the TV commercials for stock investments, past performance is no guarantee of future performance.
/still waiting for a newton with a phone and iPod built in...
-Faentur
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JC said 4:18PM on 6-16-2005
As much as I hate to say this, Gates is right in some respects, and anyone who knows me knows I was just as soon kick Bill in the face than have to use Winblows.
The iPod has become an industry "defacto" for how and what a music player should be. This is without question. If you don't believe me just take a glance at the market percentage of music players. However, users and consumers are fickle people. Trends move very fast and in the life of technology, the iPod has only been on the horizon for less than a minute. That being said, it will be hard for Apple to maintain control of the massive wave it is currently riding in the years to come. But in defense of Apple, they are continually updating the line and trying to stay well ahead of that extremely steep slope the market can take.
Anyway, a lot of todays technologies that we see and hear about coming out, are pieces that have been "shoe-horned" together. Take, for example, the phones we have today and tomorrow; most are a conglomerate of a bunch of seperate technologies not normally used together. Touchscreens usually reserved for Palm pilots, hard drive and flash drives usually reserved for cameras and a ton of "office type" software used for, well, the office, jammed packed into a form factor that is increasingly getting to large for most peoples hands.
Personally, I don't think the market wants to use an all in one device if it looks and feels like a brick because of all the stuff jammed into it. Just look at the Motorola Razr. Not a great phone by any means but the form factor alone pushed it to the top of the must have list overnight. The same is with Apple, they sit at the top and will continue to remain at the top of form factor dominance for just about anything they release.
I believe the devices of the future will be a small form factor, possibly a phone, that will simply allow you to control the rest of your devices whenever and wherever you and it may be. Basically, a small handheld device, that wirelessly and using nationwide broadband will allow you to connect to your music library at home, control your multimedia hub, ie: scheduling tv shows and movies, and connecting to your hard line at home or your cell line when away.
Convergence is the key to all of this and so far we are only in pre-beta in terms of the technologies needed. But I hope that Apple continues to work with Motorola and Palm and others to create that convergence and stay ahead of the game just as they are now.
Bill is right that Apple will be hard pressed to continue to ride the wave, however Apple has been bucking the trends for years and years and doesn't look like stopping anytime soon.
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narco said 4:18PM on 6-16-2005
Don't people learn? Don't they realize that people don't want a single (and costly) gadget to replace all their other gadgets. This is already shown with competing mp3 players that have video and FM tuners -- the two things most people complain about with the iPod, yet they are not selling, even though most are cheaper in price.
People want one thing and they want it to do it well. Companies are too concerned with the "iPod Killer" when they should be worried about the software.
Bill is totally scared, especially with all the Tiger press. These companies say the dumbest things and wait for the media to pass them along to the dumb consumers who will believe anything. Why do you think Michael Dell talks out of his ass all the time? Did you really think he was THAT stupid?
Fishes,
narco.
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amb34 said 4:18PM on 6-16-2005
Interesting analysis from Mr. Gates. On the one hand, I think, man, if only I could just use my iPod for everything, like I do my Treo 650 (which I love, stop staring at her.)
Wait, hang on, my Treo 650 does play music. I have a one gig sd card, so I can put on like my top 200 songs. Why don't I? Don't know. Maybe, I realize, I really do love my iPod and my Treo.
Of course, I just plug my iPod in and all my music is there, with easy play lists. My Treo? Have to move things onto it, adapter for headphones. Yuck, pain in the ass.
Now, if my Treo plugged into iTunes, had at least a 4 gig flash memory, and was as easy to use as the iPod (which never freezes up or resest), maybe there is something there?
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Peter Vidler said 4:18PM on 6-16-2005
I use a Nokia 1100 phone. It's bottom-of-the-line. I use it, not because I can't afford a better phone, but because I get almost 20 days between charges on my normal usage.
Show me a phone that can play music from SD cards (I only listen to music away from my Mac occasionally), without losing the battery life when music isn't played and I'd buy it. In other words, features are good, but I don't want to pay (in battery terms) for what I don't use.
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Peter Vidler said 4:18PM on 6-16-2005
Small addition: I don't mind carrying lots of devices around, so I like the whole one-device-one-purpose thing... but I really hate all the proprietary battery charges forcing me to carry a dozen power bricks around with me.
Once this issue is solved or at least alleviated, gadgets will become a lot more fun. And no, I don't think fuel cells are the answer (what to do with the inevitable waste?).
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Turtle said 4:18PM on 6-16-2005
Hardly a passing fad... yes, iPods have only been around a few years, but I've owned MP3 players back to the original Rio PMP-300 in 1998, and while my wireless phone can play MP3s, so can my car, my iBook, my PSP, and all my various PDAs. And not a single one of these objects made Bill Gates a dime. I submit that Microsoft is just a passing fad.
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bertram said 4:18PM on 6-16-2005
The idea of an mp3 player and a cellphone having a lovechild just doesn't do it for me.
I believe it was Lincoln who said, "Do one thing and do it well."
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