Bill Gates: iPod Just a Passing Fad

My phone plays MP3s and can store up to 1GB of music on the largest MMC card available right now. A nifty feature in a tiny package (my Nokia isn't bulky at all). Guess how many times I've used it to listen to music? Twice. I have to agree that most people don't want to use their phone as a music device most of the time. Some of the time, sure. But I certainly don't want to carry around a cell phone that is the size of a PDA. Bill is just upset because he hasn't found a way to steal that market yet.

A crossbreed phone and MP3 player could work, especially in a car. Think about this, you jump in your car and plug it into your car stereo by the way of an adaptor and an external mike somewhere. Much like a common handsfree kit nowdays. Your music is played from the device through your car stereo and when the phone rings it cuts the music out and is now working as a phone with a handsfree kit. One less thing to turn on/plug in when you get in your car and one less thing to carry with you when you leave for fear of theft. You would also just sync it every night with your computer to update contacts and playlists etc. The hybrid device wont replace your DAP but it would have a place to help cutdown on the amount of stuff we have to carry with us each day.

Everytime Bill says something about Apple in the media, I wonder whether he really has a vision or whether he's just cursing Apple to show that M$ is better. He apparently does not want to understand that the 'world is changing', people who used to stand an OS that needs to be re-installed every few days/weeks are NO longer willing to stand that, if it doesn't work smoothly and meet their expectations, they're going to throw it away and move on. Similarly, he's not getting the point that Apple is *not* making computer hardware, they're making *electronic appliances*, pretty much like a toaster/microwave, it just works as documented in the manual, who don't have to play with the power supply of the microwave to heat a pizza, you just throw the pizza inside, turn the dial and bam you got your delicious pizza, similary, Apple is building their hardware/software as 'no-brainer' electronic appliances, you want to do something turn on the computer while you pass by to grab a coke from the kitchen, you come back to find the system up and running (not the BSOD or some other weird virus warning or BOOT_DEVICE_UNACCESSIBLE message or something) open the application you want, do your job, turn the computer off and move on with your life (or just sit there and think how lucky you are to have an Apple).

It's the interoperability silly!!! See, the thing is, we're looking at a future of embedded machines. You won't have much of a hard drive (I though it was Jobs who said the thing about not needing more than 128k because of the Mac's original capacity-- whatever). You'll get your media the old-fashioned way: through the airwaves. And the cellphone, you belt buckle, your pinky ring, can control all that. There is no spoon. Most of the comments have said the rest. And yes, Bill does have friends. Most of them are named Benjamin.

I would sure hate to use my phone as a music player only to find that I have no battery left to make/receive a phone call. I don't know about you, but if there was such a device it would need 10 hours battery for music + your typical talk/stand-by times. Just doesn't seem likely.

The only way a phone/mp3 player would catch on as big as the iPod is if it had incredible battery life. Mp3 players don't last more than four or five hours when they're new, and it would be annoying to have your phone out of order that often.

Looked it up, Chris K is right. Shame on me for perpatuating a myth. I think Apple could continue to dominate the portable player market -- not just the high end -- but it won't be easy. A large part of it hinges on how the music subscription / purchasing industry shakes out; as long as iTunes remains dominant, the iPod will have an upper hand on competitors. Of course, the reverse is also true -- as long as the iPod has the upper hand, iTunes will remain dominant. But I agree with Chris K -- the market will adjust and catch up to the low-end Shuffle. Which brings the onus back to innovation, iTunes, and interface design.

While not wealthy, I could go out today and blow a wad of cash on an expensive smartphone but I haven't. Instead I carry around a bottom of the line Nokia that my cellular provider won't consider selling. And I carry a relatively low end PDA. And I carry my iPod. I must be stupid right? No. I only need to charge my phone once a week and on my busiest week ever- the one when I used up all my minutes in five days - I still had plenty of battery on Saturday evening when I plugged it in. And the feature list is short but I can actually use them without breaking out the manual each time. My PDA is inexpensive because I've never gone a full year without breaking one. Plus, its that battery again. The full featured fast monstrosity usually needs to be tethered to the desk. Gee, that's why I have a desktop computer. The PDA can play music and it sounds pretty good too. It could become my music player except for a few small problems. The software sucks. The battery life sucks. And USB 1 is too damn slow to push music across. Even back in the late 70's and early 80's Bill wasn't a visionary - he was just more knowledgeable than the venture capitalists he hung around with. The real computer nerds back then tended to think he was a big joke.

Gates never actually said 640K will be enough for anyone, not in the context that people quote him in today. Look it up. Gates is right. Apple is to the MP3 player market what Sony was to the portable tape player market. They popularized it, and dominate(d) in its growth phase, but at some point in time the market will be mature enough where Apple will have very little advantage over other manufacturers, and they will simply occupy the high end of the market. They can make a comforatble living there, but eventually the bottom of the market (now consumed by iPod shuffles and other cheap MP3 players) will be consumed by players integrated into cell phones.

Mister Gate, I think you should focus on media player that is something to watch movie from HDD than waste the time on battle with Apple. Oh yeah, make sure there is subtitle included.