Filed under: Analysis / Opinion, iPod Family
Flash based iPod minis?
This morning, Appleinsider is reporting on evidence suggesting that Apple will be replacing hard drive-based iPod minis with flash-based models, possibly by October. Earlier this week, iPod chip supplier PortalPlayer announced its quarterly earnings. In his speech, PortalPlayer president and CEO Gary Johnson said that revenues for PortalPlayer's third quarter of 2005 are likely to benefit from new flash-based chip designs. In response to this bit of news, American Technology Research analyst Shaw Wu anticipates a deal between PortalPlayer and Apple that will result in a 2GB, flash-based iPod mini. Could this replace the current hard drive-based models? More after the jump.
To tell you the truth, it all sounds pretty dubious to me. Aside from the fact that it's mostly guesswork, why would Apple move to a flash-based iPod mini? Isn't it the shuffle's role to go after the flash-based music player market? Apple typically keeps very distinct lines between products, and as such I don't see a "merging" of the hard drive players and flash players. Mr. Wu suggests that Apple would be producing a 2GB flash-based mini. Does that mean the 4GB and 6GB models would remain intact as hard drive-based devices? That's only going to confuse consumers. If the shuffle were selling poorly or not making the inroads Apple had hoped, maybe the mini could be moved over to "help out," but I even doubt that.
Perhaps you can bookmark this article now so you can say "I told you so" in October, but I just don't see this happening.
[Via Engadget]
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
michael said 11:22AM on 7-27-2005
I guess it's possible, but I think we'd be more likely to see a shuffle form factor with a screen. I think we'll be seeing 40 gig and 80 gig video iPods before long too. Back in December, Toshiba announced 80 gig 1.8 HDs that would be shipping in the third quarter of 05. Say, September 20-24 is in the third quarter...
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Mark said 11:35AM on 7-27-2005
I think the shuffle will remain the same but with 1GB and 2GB configs and the mini will have an 8GB config with color screen. No more 512MB suffle, no more 4 and 6GB minis.
As for the video ipod, it's not gonna happen. Ipod's with color screens will support short clips / music videos.
Now iPhone on the other hand ........ hummmm ...
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Wheels said 11:52AM on 7-27-2005
I agree, I think introducing a flash based iPod mini, amidst the HD models, would confuse potential buyers. Plus, I don't think that they could replace the current line with a measly 2gig model; that's be way too much of a downgrade. But if Apple came out with a 4 to 6 gig flash mini, that would entice me, even though I love my current mini.
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Greg said 11:51AM on 7-27-2005
A 2GB flash based mini would confuse customers?
The majority of customers have no idea what the difference is between a hard drive and flash memory. They don't care either. Only analysts and pseudo-geeks like myself care or know the difference. Perhaps they can market a flash mini as lighter, safer (no hd damage), etc., but those wouldn't be major selling points.
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michael said 12:05PM on 7-27-2005
As for the video ipod, it's not gonna happen.
Heh. Right.
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Sean Flanagan said 2:44PM on 7-27-2005
Well, this post seems to have been hijacked slightly by the video iPod discussion, so I apologize for continuing the hijacking.
I have a theory about the video iPod. For some reason, I haven't seen this theory posted anywhere, so I'll share:
The so-called "video iPod" will not be an iPod. It will be a wireless remote control device with a video screen for home use. It will preview clips and TV channels on the screen, control iTunes on your computer, control your home theater devices, and do it all through AirPort Express.
Look at the facts: Apple has hinted before that AirPort Express isn't nearly pushing its limits with digital audio; Apple has been wining and dining their current iTMS providers who also produce video material; Apple has been granted a patent for a wireless home remote system with a screen; and larger-capacity 1.5" hard drives will be available from Apple's current suppliers soon. It's also been rumored that Apple has been developing a Windows Media Center-like home appliance. Given all this and Apple's history of the "wow" factor, doesn't it make sense that the rumored home device is the rumored video iPod?
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FreeiPodGuy said 3:52PM on 7-27-2005
Whether it will happen by October is questionable, but it seems inevitable to me that as these technologies get smaller and cheaper, the following will happen:
1. The iPod Shuffle will cease to exist, and a low end mini will take its place.
2. All minis will be flashed-based and smaller (at least thinner)
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Ralph said 5:40PM on 7-27-2005
The Shuffle will not cease to exist. It's a big seller. For a while I was seeing nothing but iPods and iPod minis at the gym; everyone seems to have the Shuffle now.
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michael said 5:51PM on 7-27-2005
Exactly. People like the size and weight (or lack thereof( of the shuffle. It's the standard iPod that will eventually disappear as the iPod mini's drives grow larger. And the video iPods (with their larger drives) will take their place as the largest of the line.
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AJ said 11:24AM on 7-28-2005
In analyzing Apple's current marketing and product introduction strategies, it seems most likely, that they will probably upgrade the Shuffle to 1 and 2GB, the iPod Mini to 6 and 8GB, and add a 40 and 60GB iPod video to their lineup, and eventually phase out the 20GB...look at how they introduced the iPod Photo. They would never get rid of the standard iPod, as it is immediately the most recognizable iPod of them all, as well the reason for Apple's current success
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Munro said 1:48PM on 7-28-2005
I agree with what some people are saying and in October or sometime in fall of 2005 I would guess a flash-based mini simply added to the product line between the Shuffle and the IPod mini. I don't think it will confuse customers because it would get a new name, maybe the IPod micro, and would be smaller than the IPod mini but include a smaller screen that is probably grayscale. The prices for it will probably fall closer to the upgraded minis than the upgraded shuffles, but it will be differentiated from the IPod mini by its even smaller size, excellent battery life, flash storage, grayscale screen, slightly lower price, and possibly feature a very small click wheel or even a DPad more similar to what the shuffle has than the IPod mini has. Other upgrades to the other lines will be made in the fall, with guesses below. And one of these may be simple video support being added to the full-sized IPod, only to the full-sized IPod, and possibly only to play music videos for now. This would give Apple 4 product lines of portable music and media players.
More in the future I see possibilities for three new products from Apple. A widescreen, landscape-oriented portable media player that takes the early support for video on this fall's video IPod to a new level and larger screen. A networked set-top box and DVD player somewhat similar to Tivo or Windows MCE boxes, that would be silver or white and look like an electonic component with audio and video inputs and outputs. It would basically take Airport Express to a much higher feature level and price point and would run on an Intel M processor, come with a remote and tv tuner, have its own operating system which is based on Mac OS, and have a simple onscreen UI easily operated from the remote. And less likely yet is either a wireless PDA or cellphone, with a hard-drive and slideout or clamshell thumb keyboard. I would love if they already had a networked set-top box come out in October to basically replace Airport Express, obviously at a much higher price point though, but I don't think it's very likely. As for the shuffle, instead of completely ceasing to exist already, I think the Shuffle will still hang around for a couple years but I agree it may ultimately stop being produced. But at least for this October, they can bump the Shuffle up to 2GB still, add a couple small features, and sell it at such a low price.
BY FALL 2005 (OCTOBER)
Shuffle = Flash, Upgrade to 1GB/2GB, Price drop on 512MB/1GB to make way for "micro"
IPod "micro" = New Flash mini, 1GB/2GB/4GB, Grayscale screen, Smaller than mini, DPad instead of clickwheel possibly?
IPod mini = Upgrade hard-drives to 6GB/8GB, Upgrade to colour screen
IPod = Upgrade hard drives to 60GB/80GB, Video support, Wifi to Airport Express?
FUTURE
IPod Media = portable widescreen video and media player, 3"-4" screen, Wifi? DPad instead of click wheel?
IHome = Networked set-top box, Special Mac OS, Remote controlled UI, Wifi, ITunes/Media, Web/Email/IM, PIM
ICell or INewton = Wifi, Thumb Keyboard, PDA or cellphone, ITunes/Media, Web/Email/IM, PIM, Games?
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emma said 6:51AM on 6-30-2009
kool
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emma said 2:29AM on 8-02-2005
i like this comp
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emma said 2:31AM on 8-02-2005
i want to win this competition
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emma said 2:32AM on 8-02-2005
i think that as time goes on that they will make the ipods even smaller
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