Considering the iPod's mortality

I'm a little late to the party, but I'll add my 2 cents.

I'm all for anything that takes one more thing out of my pocket. If my phone could hold a decent amount of music and had a decent interface, I'd ditch my iPod in a minute. Who needs another $300 device to carry around?

I'm eager to see what an iPhone looks like, but I have my doubts I would buy the first version. Just too many bugs to work out before it would do any of it's tasks really well (although, maybe that's what is taking so long).

As several people have already said, it all comes down to UI and user experience. So far Apple has been head and shoulders above everyone else, but it's only a matter of time until someone designs a device with a great (or at least good) UI that does better things than an iPod. Does that mean death for the iPod? No, but it will probably mean it won't have the marketshare that it currently enjoys.

Yeah, I'm not going to drop my 50 gigs of music for a cell phone. Get real

I held out waiting for an Apple phone as long as I could, and finally got a G5.5 30GB a few days ago. Its coolness is almost unbearable.

As for cell phones, I buy only Nokia, and that's because of the UI. When I try to use Motorola phones, for example, I end up wanting to strangle the people who designed their UIs.

I think an iPod/phone is the most important thing for Apple to accomplish, more important than a media center. Why would I want to carry around 2 small electronic devices I listen to when I could carry around 1 instead? The iPod will die if it doesn't become a phone.

I dislike iPods personally because Apple uses them to push it's iTunes store. You have to use iTunes to get music on to the iPod and you have to use Apple's own charger and connecting lead. Other mp3 playes at least let you use standard USB cables and power chargers not tying you in to Apple products. They also let you copy music tracks using your normal file manage making them more compatible with other ways of using it.

#6 - you can use "iTunes my walkman" to sync a playlist from iTunes to your SonyEricsson phone - it works well.

I know it's hard for many people here to have much perspective about Apple and ipod as we're in the forest and of course, many people here are not marketers, product managers or deeply involved in the retail channel but without going into great detail - the ipod is here to stay for a long, long time. That's not to say it will be here forever - times change and Apple has to stay on top but basically, they are playing in the big leagues and everyone else is in the minors.

While I'm a mac user and an ipod user, I can still be objective.

Yes, this is a topic where you can gather 50 marketers, product designers, managers, retailers, etc, etc amd have a 30-day discussion but the bottom line is this:

Until someone can create another equvilient of ONE CLICK to view, load, buy, sync & transfer music, movies, TV shows, music videos, trailers, photos, contacts, audiobooks and podcasts ... you are simply NOT competiting.

Everyone else is selling a three-wheel car and apple is selling a four wheel car. You can PR it all you want or add a christmas tree to the top but everyone else is still selling a three wheel car - that's not to say there isn't a market for three wheel cars but 85% of people prefer a 4-wheel car.

Then add in that while others can come close to a nice design, Apple is simply better and has the market power to out-spec anyone at the same or similiar price.

Combined, the mindset is that ipod means the best mp3 player ... anyone else has to overcome that ... Apple is also smart in revising it every 3-9 months so everyone's ipod is either a "classic" or the very latest depending on your personality.

It was not all Apple's doing but in selling well, they accidentially created the accessory market ORGANICALLY and only an organic accessory market works - to continue the car analogy, 3rd party addons always sell better than factory authorized add-on parts - they seem more "real" and less mass produced (the truth doesn't really matter- it's perception).

Plus, with colors and everyone's own playlists, Apple basically hit a 7 for 7 jackpot in creating the world's first affordable MASS MARKET customizable object. Yes, it's an oxymoron in many ways but it's what EVERY company wants - to create something exclusive (like Coach/Gucci) but have it sell in the masses without diluting the brand ... ONLY Apple has managed to pull this off! (You'll pay $500 for a Coach purse because you know there are only 500 - anymore than that, the value actually drops - again, only the ipod has maintained this raried status).

While many people are loathe to give Apple credit - by end of 2006, they will have sold around 70 million+ ipods ... 95% of companies NEVER create something that sells 70 million - let alone something that sells for on average $150-$200.

How safe is the ipod? Well, none of its competitors have come close to the ONE CLICK TO RULE THEM ALL but of course, people & companies will try (Rhapsody & SanDisk) but as with the reviews, there is always something missing (psst, the fourth wheel!) ...

The ipod market is Apple's lock-in for 5 years unless they go out of their way to antgonize users or they all catch on fire in 2008 ...

As for other current competitors? None - people forget the cell phone companies are UTILITIES dressed up as real people - they have NO IDEA how to really sell anything without trying to lock you in ... like their "unlimited" 3G usage is really 5GB. They don't really get it.

MS? Yea, they are brilliant at selling to corporations but to real people - again, no. From Talking Barney's to MSN to watches, they have FAILED in EVERY consumer venture since 1995 (Xbox is $10 billion dollars spent to sell a repackaed Pc without drivers and fewer patches - spending $400 to sell it for $249 is not a real business, it's a shareholder's boondoggle ... along with another $20 billion to prop up Ballmer's stockholdings). MS will be running on fumes in 3 years.

To beat, the ipod - basically you have to create the next paradigm sift as the ipod from the walkman ... you have to create something that can basically "laser" beam your playlist & others wirelessly to you only as you walk around anywhere in the world ... until then, the ipod is here to stay ... unless I said, they all catch fire on December 26, 2008 ...

I love my ipod, but yeah, I think it's time apple comes out with a phone that does everything. Have you looked at those 3G phones they sell in Asia (you can actually get them at a lot of the local Asian cell phone places here in LA). They are insane. Pretty much everyone of them has tons of room for music and photo (most with 2megapixel). Really fast (I think broadband speed) internet access...video conferencing. Even the new Nokia that's about to hit the streets here in the US has a 5megapixel (something like that) camera ontop of a music player and phone stuff. Yeah, ipod is nice to have and it carries a lot of things...and for us who live here who travel in a car that can carry everything for us is nice. We can have our phone to be our phone, and our ipod to be our ipod. But for most of the world who mostly travel on foot....if I lived in one of those places, yeah, I want an all in one that does everything...even if the UI's not the most optimal thing. I certainly don't want to be carrying a phone, a camera, an ipod and a laptop for emailing (though of course if I need it for other purposes...then I'd carry it around). All-in-one is really the future, and I think apple needs to get in there really fast...or they will eventually lose out to the phone companies. I want my iphone....only if it takes pictures too.

the demise of the ipod (as it is now) seems fairly obvious. just look at Japan. the ipod never even took off there because their cell phones already filled that gap. it's only a matter of time till our own market reaches that point. Nokia knows this, and its pushing in the same direction. hopefuly Apple has spent some time learning from the asian markets.

I saw something about Apple and Motorola creating some sort of iPod/Phone hybrid thingy. It has VERY limited capacity, but it was the first step to something big down the track I believe.

I have the new 80gig 5.5g. It's more than half full of videos, with a respectable amount of music. I travel weekly for my job, so it's great to have a video library with me rather than rely on whatever hotel deems fit to have for a channel line up.

As for what others have had to say - the iPhone will be great IF it integrates well with the functions of a cell phone and a portable media player with PDA apps thrown in. If anyone can make it seemless - earbuds with a built in mic, great user interface, ease of use etc - then Apple will continue to dominate the field and others constantly trying to imitate Apples success without bringing anything new to the table.

I will withold judgement on the Zune until I see one in action, but what I have read doesn't seem to promise anything that would leave Apple shaking in its' boots. Microsoft may have benefited from throwing money to oust competitors from the market, but the playing field has changed. I believe Apple will continue to be the main player in the portable media market for some time to come. How long that remains the case depends on their ability to remain relevant and edgy in a market driven by fickle consumer tastes.