Filed under: Analysis / Opinion, Multimedia, Video, Apple TV
Apple TV takes over DVD world, or 30%, at least
I don't give predictions of market analysts too much serious thought, mostly because the statistics don't really mean much other than to hype up a particular product. Or maybe these analysts just like to be able to say 'told ya so' if their predictions become true. Anyway, one Deutsche Bank analyst claims that the Apple TV can potentially capture 20-30% of the CD and DVD market within a few years after its launch this month. Not to be a naysayer or anything, but that is a huge percentage that seems way too optimistic to be taken seriously. There are a ton of factors at play here. (Oh, and let's not forget that only Disney, Paramount, and Lions Gate are on board to sell films through iTunes... and as far as I know, there are a couple more movie studios out there than just these three). What do you think? Will the Apple TV cause that big of a shakeup in the home entertainment market once it lands? Will it appeal only to fervent Apple fans? What about those people that can barely operate the remote control of their DVD player, never mind tackling the prospect of downloading and transferring digital videos? Any thoughts?
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
Alex said 5:53PM on 2-21-2007
I think the model apple is creating here has the potential to take over cd, dvd, HD-DVD, and Blu-ray dvd, as well as cable.
I don't think we'll see that any time soon, and I don't know if apple will be the company to do it. There's a lot of old thinking to get rid of for it to be successful, but the potential is there.
Fast forward a few years and consider. Let's say there's an apple-tv 2.0, or simply a patch that allows you to download full HD quality movies. Let's assume broadband has caught up and is cheap enough that this could be common. Who cares who wins the disc format wars they just became irrelevant! How many people are going to subscribe to a cable provider when they can pick the shows they want and get them when they want them, without commercials?
The Apple TV is one step closer to unified media device/outlet that we've been talking about for years, and suddenly it doesn't seem nearly as far fetched as it used to. I'm hopeful that we'll get there before long, but not holding my breath.
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jonesy said 6:01PM on 2-21-2007
It will take over....my living room at least if they release it in Feb. Lol not many days left now and still no sign of it.
The movie thing mentioned in the article does seem US orientated though, Europ doesn't (at the moment) have any movie downloads bar music vids, and until Apple roll film and TV out over here I can't see the TV making much of an impact. Let alone replace DVDs and such.
Besides, a lot of the specs aren't really public yet, will they (music vids atm) look good in 720p on my 55" Bravia through iTunes or will they look as crap full screen as they do on the 20" iMac for example....
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Matthew said 6:03PM on 2-21-2007
I don't see it taking that much market percentage. I for one prefer having hard copies of my media, plus I like the extras and whatnot. And also, everywhere in the world but America, there're no films or tv shows on iTunes, so it's just not going to sell until that happens. And in the UK at least, I can't really see TV shows going on iTunes. Channel 4 and five both have there own on demand internet services, and the BBC is soon to launch it's own internet download service, which will of course be free, so even if they did put programmes on iTunes, nobody would buy them. So I don't really see it taking off here, unless they put a lot of films that people want on there.
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Bob said 6:15PM on 2-21-2007
If they would go to a monthly subscription model for movies and keep music downloads the same, the Apple TV could at least make cable on demand material a thing of the past.
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CrisisDog said 6:25PM on 2-21-2007
If iTunes gets any HD content, I'd go for it. I'm already investing in HD DVD, and don't want to take the plunge into Blu-Ray. This would be another option for me, plus I would be able to stream my music to my home stereo system.
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Adam said 6:55PM on 2-21-2007
I gotta say though, sure it sucks that only 3 studios are on board, but Lionsgate is one of my favourite - they put out some great stuff.
Get Warner in there and they're set!
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Brandon said 6:28PM on 2-21-2007
I dont think this is close at all, I see this as sort of a test for apple. They still really need some development in bandwith capabilities, as does everyone. Also, I don't really understand why the appletv has hdmi, there is no high def content for users. If I want to stream content at good quality, I have to rip some pretty big files, but it can be done, I just don't see it to the point where it actually makes sense to do that rather than pop it into my upscaler. So here is how I see it:
Hard DVDs will actually become obselete, apple will get a fair amount of this streaming/digital distribution market, which will be based on 2 things: content, and ease of use. When apple integrates the store right into apple tv, and doesnt compress content as much, appletv will kill the dvd industry. But for this to really happen, bandwith improvements need to be made in order to actually have reasonable times when downloading a high def movie
*end analysis*
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Mgkwho said 7:04PM on 2-21-2007
I agree with those above who say it eventually can go there...
But for now, such a change in the way we distrbute content will definitely take more than a few years to capture such a large market share.
Video tapes were still in production alongside DVDs for how many years? And there are still cassette tapes too. Why, a computer lab at my school that was just outfitted with 30 or so new dells (egh) has diskette drives- no CD drives! Wtf?
Anyway, I think this is a way to go in the future. But I still think hard, physical (in the sense of the tangible media that holds the digital content!) media will never become obselete. I will always want hard back ups and physical photos and dvd and cd collections...even if stored away in a basement.
-=|Mgkwho
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trever said 7:37PM on 2-21-2007
Until there's content for Canada, I'll stick with the mac mini running front row and bit torrent. Frontrow can play back divx content if you go get the free divx player codec, and vlc is there when all else fails.
Give me content and I'll gladly switch over to iTunes for delivery, and perhaps eventually an appletv.
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DocRoland said 7:46PM on 2-21-2007
Had I known that this would only work with the Core 2 Duo, I would have waited a couple of months before I bought my first Mac. I love my Mac, don't get me wrong, and I have an HDTV and would have probably thought about the Apple TV, but they're not going to get me, and I'm an early adopter. Now my Xbox 360, that's a place I might find myself downloading digital movies. 30% - that's a little much, but I could be wrong.
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The Jeremy said 8:45PM on 2-21-2007
I can't really say I'm excited about it. While 720p should be supported, I really think 1080i should have been the minimum, with 1080p being at tops. Because of this, the Apple TV won't even match a "side benefit" of the Sony Playstation3. I also don't think it is wise to simply "match" Microsoft since the Xbox Live marketplace is also offering content in basement level HD (720p).
Then there's the whole fact that it isn't a DVR. Apple could have done so much better with simply purchasing TiVo and making a "Series 3.5" based upon the Mac Mini hardware. At the very least, Apple could restle a profit out of a $600 or $700 hardware price - thanks to Apple's economies of scale as compared to TiVo - without resorting to charging subscription fees just for programming guide updates.
Bah, it'll probably still sell well. It just won't be what many of us want from Apple.
Oh yeah, and how about some Divx/Xvid support via a download fee/license?
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James said 9:46PM on 2-21-2007
Well, if any product has a chance of taking such a bite out of DVD, this is the one. Least complicated, least expensive, iTunes connection... the only real thing limiting Apple are wireless standards (which is the reason for only 720p, BTW. 1080p over draft-N would still lag) and internet connection speed (downloading even 720p movies is not exactly convenient for many). A few years down the line and teh 2nd or 3rd gen of this product could be THE content provider.
Techie Notes:
1) the Xbox 360 costs more (don't forget to factor the wireless and media center ties)
2) DivX simply doesn't matter to the mass market iPod crowd Apple is (wisely) shooting for. Apple is pushing legal content, and most legal content is iPod compatible, not DivX.
3) Yes, this is US-centric for now in terms of content provided through iTunes, but you can rip your own DVDs and stream them to your heart's content.
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thirdmoose said 10:03PM on 2-21-2007
For the last time, guys, 720p>1080i. Think about it. 1080i=540 lines at a time
720p=720 lines at a time
1080i = .75*720p
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John Doe said 10:03PM on 2-21-2007
Comment System Test (sorry)
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Peter Kraniak said 12:02AM on 2-22-2007
Yup... in the US at least. And thats when Apple goes bit-torrent with movies and offers a subscription. It can very well do it.
If you could have access to any movie at any time on-demand with a monthly rate of around $15 -20, that would be bigger than the iPod! Especially if you could throw in there all those TV shows and especially with music. I just know that this is where Apple is going. I'm positive that's the purpose for those Apple TV's. They're millions of little servers for Apple to distribute content. Apple just rakes in the monthly fees and distributes royalties to the content owners. Revolution #3 (I'm not counting the iPhone)
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Ben said 1:25AM on 2-22-2007
Apple could start stocking the iTunes store with overpriced movies from every studio out there soon. All his Steveness would need to do is threaten to build DVD ripping capabilities into iTunes (something they should've done a long time ago anyway).
He's been posturing on the whole DRM thing lately and I don't think he was only talking about CD's.
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JT said 3:42AM on 2-22-2007
I think this is a simplistic assumption from an analyst who forgets that before creating a succesful selling platform (iTunes), Apple created a player and a software that enabled to easily copy CDs, and import pirated music. The audiovisual industry is much more educated and will not let a device play downloaded(P2P xvid)/ripped content.
That's the deal breaker. I don't encourage P2P piracy, but if you want to convert pirates (and there are a lot of them outside Apple's fanbase), you have to do it smoothly, and not by ignoring their formats of choice.
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JT said 3:43AM on 2-22-2007
So yes no Divx is a big deal, because if the iPod could only play music purchased through its store, it would not have sold that much.
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Matteo said 7:15AM on 2-28-2007
Here are my two cents on this issue.
I am interested in creating a real multimedia hub in my living room. AppleTV is not such a hub, and therefore I'll look for alternatives.
What AppleTV lacks, to be able to sale the mentioned figures, it the following:
- TV recording features (TiVo like)
- Internet connection
- Expandable memory (external HDD)
Some comments are a little biased since they are from US residends (except one Canadian :-) ).
AppleTV has the potential to be a HUGE source of revenues in Europe.
Think about that:
- No TiVo here!
- Movies always come a lot later than they do in the US
- TV series are available up to one year later than in the US
Many people with high education/revenue understand and speak english very well. I bet they would spend big bucks to be able to watch TV series and movies in advance even in original language (many already do that in theaters as well as by playing DVDs in their original version).
The lacks I mentioned are important in Europe because iTunes store does not allow any video content download.
A transition to an AppleTV based model (you buy what you want to watch, commercial-free) has to be done step by step in Europe.
PLEASE APPLE, let us watch, pause and record live TV (think about local TV series, sports and so on). This would bring your device in many homes in old Europe. That would be a wonderful head start should you decide to sell us video content.
Since AppleTV is not ready for prime time in Europe I will purchase:
- mac mini
- external HDD
- eye TV
So I will have what I am speaking of RIGHT NOW and here.
Unfortunately it will cost me a fortune...
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OWRC said 5:59AM on 2-22-2007
Once the @TV is hacked to play DivX and Xvid then it might be worth a look. As a medium for playing iTunes only content it simply can't compete with Satellite and Cable TV.
Why on earth would I trade in my Sky HD + box with hundreds of normal channels, 15-20 movie channels and a few in HD. It just doesn't make sense.
I do however run a mac mini alongside the skybox to play divx movies and vids from da interweb as well as browsing and the odd game of Wow.
The @TV just seems to have little to no value compared to the above hardware which is not to say that I wouldn't love to be able to download high quality movie content from iTunes. I would but in a device that does not limit me exclusively to content from iTunes.
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