Filed under: Analysis / Opinion, Hardware, Retail, Features, iPhone
Why you won't be buying an iPhone-like iPod anytime soon
Since the iPhone's introduction in January, the requests and baiting rumors for a touch-screen iPod that looks and acts like an iPhone - sans the actual phone - have sounded from every corner of the web. The world is inarguably intrigued by this new UI Apple developed for their highly anticipated gadget, and many are waiting with bated breath and credit card in hand, believing the iPod will naturally gain these touchy-feely features any day now. The only problem is: there's no way in Cupertino that's going to happen. At least, not anytime soon.
Next: imagine that, after introducing the iPod and giving it that nudge it needed to skyrocket in popularity, you embark on another project, spending at least four and a half years developing a killer mobile phone + DMP + internet device the likes the world has never seen. A gadget so cool and anticipated that it is not only shaking up the mobile phone market, but it single-handedly drowns out the entirety of CES during the week of its introduction. A key factor here, oh reader who is momentarily in Apple's shoes, is that the mobile phone market currently speaks in the mouth-watering language of 'billions,' while Apple's iPod sales - impressive as they may be - are playing in the kiddie pool at 'millions.' Whether you want a mobile phone packed into your iPod or not, you can't ignore the fact that the mobile phone market makes iPod sales look like the Zune's on a good day.
Now, keeping in mind these numbers, a sales pie the likes you've never seen barreling straight for your revenue stream and investors practically wetting themselves while dreaming of iPhone-shaped dollar signs at night, are you really going to cannibalize the profits off your most anticipated device of all time by yanking out a key component (the phone) and selling it for $200 or $300 less? Before you skip what little is left of this post to try and answer that question, let me save you the trouble: the correct answer is no, no you wouldn't - under penalty of death.
Unfortunately, those who are holding their breath for an iPhone-like iPod should probably alert the paramedics sooner rather than later, because you're likely in store for an asphyxia-related concussion (from, say, smacking your head on your desk once you pass out). Unless the iPhone somehow turns out to be a colossal failure, all signs point to the iPod not receiving any of the iPhone's slick UI anytime soon; not for at least a year or two, or possibly longer (and even then we might be subject to the fated Newton Syndrome, where Jobs banishes the design to the Cupertino Dungeon, never to be heard from again). After all that work, Apple is going to want - nay, need - to squeeze the iPhone for every penny they can, especially in the incredibly competitive market of mobile phones where look-alikes are already cropping up.
As sad as it may be, it really doesn't seem like the iPod will become the instrument of the iPhone's destruction. If you want to get fingers-on with your iTunes media, the iPhone will likely be your only shot in the near - or possibly far - future.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 3)
Cory G said 12:16PM on 5-28-2007
I don't know - if your right about the iPod being in the minor leagues compared to cell phones, then why should Apple be scared of a few million in iPod sales? I think Steve knows that if they don't update the iPod with some full screen version - then the Zune or another competitor will and that will cannibalize sales to the competition.
I think you're WRONG and just like the Apple store showed the world, sometimes doing what everyone else thinks is wrong - is RIGHT. I think we'll see a full screen iPod available as early as this summer but more then likely just ahead of the holiday shopping spree.
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matthew m. barnes said 6:33PM on 5-28-2007
i agree with Cory. i think there is room for both. mostly because an 8 GB iPhone can hold only a movie or two. i'd want that 100 GB iPod to take on trips, etc... so i can watch more of my movies and listen to more of my music. the only iPod that might suffer at the hands of the iPhone is the nano.
there is one important thing to remember here: you can't look at Apple the way you look at any other electronics company. Apple has a cool factor that causes each and every product they release (whether they are infringing on their own sales or not) to be a huge success. it doesn't make sense, but it happens. people want what Apple makes because what Apple makes is cool. that's why i know so many people who have a shuffle, a nano and a full sized iPod.
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Frank said 12:31PM on 5-28-2007
Interesting piece, David, and well-argued. I think it's true that Apple wants to keep the iPhone as the sexy beast for a while. Apple's goal is to sell as many iPhones as possible, and one way to do that is to grab all the low-hanging fruit (so to speak): current iPod users who want to upgrade.
The only comment I'll make is that as revolutionary as it was at the time, the iPod's UI is getting long in the tooth. It needs a makeover, and I think Apple knows this. Since it's unlikely that they'll develop a different, new UI for the iPod, I think at some point (perhaps sooner than you think), the iPod will get some of the UI features of the iPhone.
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stephen said 12:31PM on 5-28-2007
i'm going to have to disagree as well. we will see new ipod this fall. they may not have all the bells and whistles of the iphone, but tehy will probably be widescreen and have some of the touch features. what i see happening is apple saying hey look you can get an ipod with phone capabilities for this much $599 or you can get a 120gig ipod without the phone capabilities for around the same price. (oh you also won't have wifi, bluetooth, widgets, os x lite) it'll basically just be an ipod that you can flick through your media collection and watch horizontally. hmm.
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LittleJoe said 12:31PM on 5-28-2007
Apple knows the iPhone isnt going to sell in the billions like a RAZR. Its ludicrous to think that they would put all their efforts into the iPhone and abandon the iPod for a time.
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CHNEPR said 12:39PM on 5-28-2007
Actually, concussion is a hematoma on the brain and could not conceivably be cause my lack of oxygen, let alone be self inflicted as such. (adds more tape to glasses) When will TUAW stop posting such drivel?
Just kidding. Great insightful article. Hell, I live in Africa and even though it wouldn't work as a phone, it's the first thing I'm buying if I get back to the states. That'd work right? I mean, it's not like you need cincular to have the touch screen interface and watch movies full screen, right?
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thejedipunk said 1:57PM on 5-28-2007
Of course it would cannibalize iPhone sales. You also have to consider that some people just don't need or want a convergence device. These are those people that don't mind taking your low end Nokia's, Samsung's, LG's etc etc.
At the same time, I think that alot of people won't like the new user interface of the iPhone. People are quick to say that it will fail or it's the best thing they've ever seen. That's what it comes down to right now. The people have only seen the phone. It might look like the zenith of UI's but you know that only like 20 people in the entire world have actually used the thing. And it's not limited to the UI. People are too quick to say that it will tank because of a lack of 3G. I've already mentioned this before, but what's the point of having a 3G iPhone here in America if there's barely a 3G network? Not to mention battery life and the rates. It's rather obvious that the reason Europe and Asia are being delay is due to the development of 3G iPhone for use in those regions
I'm not so sure about the new UI either. I love my Scroll Wheel. I don't need to look at my screen to change the song, raise the volume or even shuffle my songs. With the iPhone and an iPhone like iPod, I'll have to pull out the thing just to do those things I mentioned.
I think the first thing Apple needs to do is solve some of feature problems the iPod has. Things like a built in AM/FM tuner to voice recording capabilities.
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mikerothfeld said 12:48PM on 5-28-2007
I too disagree with your logic here. Namely because of the capacity of the iPhone. The two available-at-launch sizes are 4GB and 8GB. If anything, this puts it up against the Nano, not the 5.5G iPod. There are plenty of people who want more capacity than the iPhone will deliver. Many would be willing to plunk down large sums of money to own both the iPhone and a much-larger capacity, non-phone, touch screen iPod. Yes, some would choose one over the other, but even so, being the inovator they are, I can not see Apple putting this much R&D into such a cutting-edge interface and then sitting on it with only one product. I'm sure there will be some lag time before we see this in a non-phone iPod, but two years is ridiculous.
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eMAx said 12:54PM on 5-28-2007
This is half right.
Apple & ATT will allow people to buy the iPhone with a prepaid plan...but what happens when the pre paid min run out?
You get an iPhone without the phone, or a wide screen internet browsing iPod with WI-FI.
you get the point....
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Dave Chartier said 12:55PM on 5-28-2007
#7: While we don't have exact numbers, Apple has made it clear that the iPod mini - and its replacement, the nano - are by and large the best selling iPods, hands down. The greater majority of iPod and iPhone customers either don't have that large of a library, or they simply don't need to bring all of their library along with them.
Taking this fact into account, it's clear why Apple is placing so much effort behind the iPhone, and it aids my argument as to why the device is going to be in the spotlight for a while.
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Keith Mancuso said 12:56PM on 5-28-2007
I dont buy your logic, it assumes that the iphone doesnt add any value to what would be a touch screen ipod for the extra 200-300. Me personally I'd still buy an iPhone even if they introduced the touch screen iPod at the same time. Its "killer feature" isn't the touch screen iPod its the integration of all the features together.
We all know that microsoft and or others will be coming out with touch screen music players very soon soo apple has a lot more to worry about other companies cannibalizing their sales then about cannibalizing their own sales.
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Squirrels said 1:19PM on 5-28-2007
here's a comparison argument for you; I really think your perspective is all wrong.
http://mac.blorge.com/2007/05/28/why-apple-will-release-an-updated-ipod-and-soon/
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Quixote said 1:19PM on 5-28-2007
I agree with the article, but I think the thing your missing is the component cost: the wireless equipment to make a cell phone is pretty much off-the-shelf parts right now. It's the iPod part of the iPhone that is pushing it to that $500-$600 price point. You need a pretty hefty cpu to run the OS X, which is responsible for managing the touch interface and the display output.
You could say, "Well, i don't want an internet device, or photo manipulation," but the addition of those features is just because you CAN do it once you have OS X on the device; the hardware for both have been around for cell phones for a long time, even if WiFi hasn't really been State-side, so the costs aren't that high--WiFi is pretty common on European and Asian smartphones, the iPhone camera is standard fair, and EVERYBODY does BlueTooth. Apple has been using that class of hardware in iMacs and lappies for a while now, ditto on solid state motion sensors and ambient light sensors, thus spreading out the engineering costs over previous devices, and becoming familiar with OEM suppliers. So your looking at pretty low component costs, vs. the untried capacitive multitouch screen and the custom silicone they crammed in to make it all talk together (software is cheap, since you can fire the programers if it fails, and copy their work in perpetuity if works). Even if you strip out the WiFi hardware and the camera, you're going to need to replace the flash ram with much more expensive capacity to be a REAL video iPod, or drop in a 1.8" 30GB HDD (which is a nightmare, since then you have to add the HDD controller hardware, and the battery capacity has to increase BIG TIME to keep those little motors going, and you just got a very FAT iPod). Suddenly tomorrow's new iPod costs a heck of a lot more then today's $250 iPod.
I think we'll see a widescreen iPod pretty quickly, probably this holiday, but it won't be iPhone-cum-iPod. iPods sell so well because they fit in people's checkbooks without bleeding people dry. The widescreen standalone iPod can't cost much more then the comparable Zune, work as intuitively as the original iPod, and still net Apple a nice profit, otherwise, what's the point?
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Tim Yates said 1:20PM on 5-28-2007
The iPhone is not just a threat to the cell phone manufactures, but also all MP3 players, old and new.
Apple is not worried about any iPod+iTunes killers. I don't think any company would make the investment in building a better MP3 player knowing that Apple could turn the iPhone into an uber sexy wireless iPod at a moments notice. It's not worth the risk of losing those investment dollars.
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Quixote said 1:24PM on 5-28-2007
Sorry for the long winded rant--I couldn't have been second, too! :)
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Cory G said 1:37PM on 5-28-2007
When has Steve Jobs just sat on his laurels? Why do we think he's going start now? If Apple doesn't update the iPod with a Widescreen then that would be the biggest mistake yet.
For these reason, I can safely predict that if it's possible, and I'm sure it is - Steve will have a fullscreen iPod out by Christmas and that David is 100% WRONG.
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Martin said 1:41PM on 5-28-2007
I comment as a customer, and lover of Apple's products for just under two years.
1: the iPhone in no way appeals to me: I already have a mobile phone that has the capability to do 10 to 20 things I don't use, need or have any interest in. It's smaller than the iPhone and much cheaper. A computer in my pocket, I do not want, as Yoda might say.
2: the thing that got me into Apple stuff in the first place, like so many others, was the iPod. My wife bought my a G4 iPod a few years ago, and I loved it. Still do. I use it to store all my music and to backup my Documents folder. I would buy a full-screen, touchy iPod TOMORROW, just so I could play films and so on.
Imagine, a full-screen iPod with visualiser...
I was in my local Apple store yesterday. The current iPods are beautiful, but I'll wait, thanks.
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Jon said 1:47PM on 5-28-2007
I think there will be a full-screen iPod at some point in the near future but they may change the design to have a clear separation between the two. A full-screen iPod with the current design might look too much like the iPhone (to the masses, at least).
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Sss said 1:52PM on 5-28-2007
Bull-ZUNE!
We won't see a iPhone-without-the-phone iPod BEFORE the iPhone, or even within a few months but it won't be one to two years. Apple no longer functions the way you expect when you said it would work 'to squeeze the iPhone for every penny they can'. Every iPod was replaced when it was at the top of its game ...with an even better iPod. Apple does not wait - if it can make enough.
The big mistake that you, and many other commentators, make is they assume the iPhone, iPod nano and regular sized iPod are marketed, and bought by the same market segment.
Sales of a 6G iPod (the iPhone form factor and software package, without phone but a large hard drive) will not diminish sales of the iPhone as the iPhone is an iPod nano with a cell phone and other stuff. Those who need a full-sized iPod will still need a full-sized iPod even if they get an iPhone.
Assuming Apple can get enough of the screens and they came build it and keep the same margins we will see a "6G" iPod in the fall of this year. The 6G iPod will come, it will be after the iPhone but all of your reasons and arguments a just... Bull-ZUNE.
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Catt said 2:03PM on 5-28-2007
Lets see, the iPhone is an iPod with phone features and the disk is a wee bit smaller than most of us would like. So all Apple has to do is smack a larger disk on subsequent model of said iPhone and we would have an iPod with a larger disk and have a phone too just incase we want to make a phone call. So I'm thinking why would they spend more time making an updated iPod when technically they already have. IMHO the iPone is like a 4GB, 8GB Nano with a wide screen and a phone too... Plus the UI enhancements... I enjoyed this article! Looking at quite a few of these comments it just seems to me that we haven't quite wrapped our minds around what Apple has done here. Hopefully things would be clearer when we've gotten our hands on the device.
I am not about to complain about getting an iPod with phone capabilities NO WAY!
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