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Why you won't be buying an iPhone-like iPod anytime soon

by David Chartier May 28th 2007 at 12:00PM

Since the iPhone's introduction in January, the requests and baiting rumors for a touch-screen iPod that looks and acts like an iPhone - sans the actual phone - have sounded from every corner of the web. The world is inarguably intrigued by this new UI Apple developed for their highly anticipated gadget, and many are waiting with bated breath and credit card in hand, believing the iPod will naturally gain these touchy-feely features any day now. The only problem is: there's no way in Cupertino that's going to happen. At least, not anytime soon.

Put yourself in Apple's shoes: you've just smashed one out of the park with the iPod. You spent a few years working on it, polishing it, developing generation after generation of updates that instantly make the previous version look old 'n busted. After a slow start, you eventually take the DMP (Digital Media Player) market by storm, beating out a few major companies at their own game. Six years and a ton of 3rd party accessories later, you are the king of this particular domain, with what appears to be nary a formidable challenger in sight.

Next: imagine that, after introducing the iPod and giving it that nudge it needed to skyrocket in popularity, you embark on another project, spending at least four and a half years developing a killer mobile phone + DMP + internet device the likes the world has never seen. A gadget so cool and anticipated that it is not only shaking up the mobile phone market, but it single-handedly drowns out the entirety of CES during the week of its introduction. A key factor here, oh reader who is momentarily in Apple's shoes, is that the mobile phone market currently speaks in the mouth-watering language of 'billions,' while Apple's iPod sales - impressive as they may be - are playing in the kiddie pool at 'millions.' Whether you want a mobile phone packed into your iPod or not, you can't ignore the fact that the mobile phone market makes iPod sales look like the Zune's on a good day.

Now, keeping in mind these numbers, a sales pie the likes you've never seen barreling straight for your revenue stream and investors practically wetting themselves while dreaming of iPhone-shaped dollar signs at night, are you really going to cannibalize the profits off your most anticipated device of all time by yanking out a key component (the phone) and selling it for $200 or $300 less? Before you skip what little is left of this post to try and answer that question, let me save you the trouble: the correct answer is no, no you wouldn't - under penalty of death.

Unfortunately, those who are holding their breath for an iPhone-like iPod should probably alert the paramedics sooner rather than later, because you're likely in store for an asphyxia-related concussion (from, say, smacking your head on your desk once you pass out). Unless the iPhone somehow turns out to be a colossal failure, all signs point to the iPod not receiving any of the iPhone's slick UI anytime soon; not for at least a year or two, or possibly longer (and even then we might be subject to the fated Newton Syndrome, where Jobs banishes the design to the Cupertino Dungeon, never to be heard from again). After all that work, Apple is going to want - nay, need - to squeeze the iPhone for every penny they can, especially in the incredibly competitive market of mobile phones where look-alikes are already cropping up.

As sad as it may be, it really doesn't seem like the iPod will become the instrument of the iPhone's destruction. If you want to get fingers-on with your iTunes media, the iPhone will likely be your only shot in the near - or possibly far - future.

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Since the iPhone's introduction in January, the requests and baiting rumors for a touch-screen iPod that looks and acts like an iPhone -...
 

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59 Comments

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Tom

I STRONGLY disagree with this article, and posted an alternate view:

"...you can't argue what the next iPod won't be without also presenting what it will be. Why? Because that very discussion leads one to specific conclusions about what really makes sense. The [TUAW] article fails in this. So, with that in mind we should consider the following..."

http://www.tuaw.com/2007/05/28/why-you-wont-be-buying-an-iphone-like-ipod-anytime-soon/

June 03 2007 at 12:08 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
freddy

ya this is just a comment on your article buddy! just a bunch of blabbing on, boring and sounds like you dont want apple to be the leader in the cell phone industries. Will see what really happens when the iphone comes out and just like the ipod its going to kick ass!.

June 02 2007 at 7:28 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Will

Interesting; and good thinking.
I believe you're right about the delay period.
However, I also believe that Apple probably has the widescreen video touch iPod mostly done and already on deck to jump into the market at an appropriate me-too iPhone copycat tipping-point.
I'm guessing it will be set up so all SJ has to do is pull the trigger at the right time.
But very good thinking, Apple is the company Most conscientious toward "cannibalism".

May 30 2007 at 1:41 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Jeff Taylor

Apple should NEVER stop improving the ipod. The ipod helped to pave the road for Apple having the success they have today. Until they deliver a video ipod with a bigger screen, I'll stick with my Nano. A repeat sale MISSED that would only help ensure Apple's ipod success keeps rolling along.

May 30 2007 at 4:01 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
tundraboy

Your premise is totally wrong. A dollar's profit, whether it's from an iPod or an iPhone is stil a dollar's profit. It doesn't matter where that profit comes from whether it's from the billion-unit market for cell phones or the million-unit market for digital players.

Furthermore, you are falling into the trap of thinking that it's a bad thing to cannibalize your own product. Wrong again. Especially in high tech, it is a good thing to cannibalize your own product because if you don't do it to yourself, someone else will do it to you.

Apple better hurry up and get that widescreen hard drive iPod into the market before it suffers the embarassment and potential stock price hit of a widescreen Zune beating them to market. My son has been waiting two years for a widescreen iPod. (Not that he'd ever buy a Zune.) He will never buy an iPhone as an iPod substitute. There's a lot of pent up demand out there for the widescreen iPod. Apple would be foolish to ignore this.



May 29 2007 at 12:42 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Martin

i don't buy this, how can an iPod hurt iPhone sales ?

i will call the paramedics while u wait for your iPod to ring.

May 29 2007 at 11:51 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Bill

I don't think the author understands the benefits of standardization in driving down manufacturing costs. If Apple could make one kind of form factor, this could drive down the costs of all the machines (iPod or iPhone) faster.

I also don't think the author understands the importance of user base in operating systems. By using Mac OS X on the iPhone, Apple has created a Trojan Horse that will drive their market share numbers to new highs vs. Windows and Linux. You can already see this happening with the MacBook since the switch Intel CPUs.

Basically I don't think the author of this article was very thoughtful. He's just playing pretend, imagining himself playing strategist at a big company...

May 29 2007 at 8:37 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Jenny

Iphone is revolutionizing the mobile market with it's smart marketing tactics. we can expect a good competition from other vendors in the near future.

regards
Jenny
http://www.spaml.com

May 29 2007 at 6:49 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
SMAC

#48

Your a freggin genius!

They should incoperate the picture flow in the address book in os x!

WTF not? (Why not What)

You gotta get that in some e-mail off to Apple so they will include it in Leopard, there's gotta be some contact for imporvements to OS X.

I'm gunna go find one and spread your idea it is a beauty!!

May 29 2007 at 5:42 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
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