I don't know - if your right about the iPod being in the minor leagues compared to cell phones, then why should Apple be scared of a few million in iPod sales? I think Steve knows that if they don't update the iPod with some full screen version - then the Zune or another competitor will and that will cannibalize sales to the competition.

I think you're WRONG and just like the Apple store showed the world, sometimes doing what everyone else thinks is wrong - is RIGHT. I think we'll see a full screen iPod available as early as this summer but more then likely just ahead of the holiday shopping spree.

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Interesting piece, David, and well-argued. I think it's true that Apple wants to keep the iPhone as the sexy beast for a while. Apple's goal is to sell as many iPhones as possible, and one way to do that is to grab all the low-hanging fruit (so to speak): current iPod users who want to upgrade.

The only comment I'll make is that as revolutionary as it was at the time, the iPod's UI is getting long in the tooth. It needs a makeover, and I think Apple knows this. Since it's unlikely that they'll develop a different, new UI for the iPod, I think at some point (perhaps sooner than you think), the iPod will get some of the UI features of the iPhone.

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i'm going to have to disagree as well. we will see new ipod this fall. they may not have all the bells and whistles of the iphone, but tehy will probably be widescreen and have some of the touch features. what i see happening is apple saying hey look you can get an ipod with phone capabilities for this much $599 or you can get a 120gig ipod without the phone capabilities for around the same price. (oh you also won't have wifi, bluetooth, widgets, os x lite) it'll basically just be an ipod that you can flick through your media collection and watch horizontally. hmm.

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Apple knows the iPhone isnt going to sell in the billions like a RAZR. Its ludicrous to think that they would put all their efforts into the iPhone and abandon the iPod for a time.

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Actually, concussion is a hematoma on the brain and could not conceivably be cause my lack of oxygen, let alone be self inflicted as such. (adds more tape to glasses) When will TUAW stop posting such drivel?

Just kidding. Great insightful article. Hell, I live in Africa and even though it wouldn't work as a phone, it's the first thing I'm buying if I get back to the states. That'd work right? I mean, it's not like you need cincular to have the touch screen interface and watch movies full screen, right?

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I too disagree with your logic here. Namely because of the capacity of the iPhone. The two available-at-launch sizes are 4GB and 8GB. If anything, this puts it up against the Nano, not the 5.5G iPod. There are plenty of people who want more capacity than the iPhone will deliver. Many would be willing to plunk down large sums of money to own both the iPhone and a much-larger capacity, non-phone, touch screen iPod. Yes, some would choose one over the other, but even so, being the inovator they are, I can not see Apple putting this much R&D into such a cutting-edge interface and then sitting on it with only one product. I'm sure there will be some lag time before we see this in a non-phone iPod, but two years is ridiculous.

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This is half right.

Apple & ATT will allow people to buy the iPhone with a prepaid plan...but what happens when the pre paid min run out?

You get an iPhone without the phone, or a wide screen internet browsing iPod with WI-FI.

you get the point....

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I dont buy your logic, it assumes that the iphone doesnt add any value to what would be a touch screen ipod for the extra 200-300. Me personally I'd still buy an iPhone even if they introduced the touch screen iPod at the same time. Its "killer feature" isn't the touch screen iPod its the integration of all the features together.

We all know that microsoft and or others will be coming out with touch screen music players very soon soo apple has a lot more to worry about other companies cannibalizing their sales then about cannibalizing their own sales.

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here's a comparison argument for you; I really think your perspective is all wrong.

http://mac.blorge.com/2007/05/28/why-apple-will-release-an-updated-ipod-and-soon/

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I agree with the article, but I think the thing your missing is the component cost: the wireless equipment to make a cell phone is pretty much off-the-shelf parts right now. It's the iPod part of the iPhone that is pushing it to that $500-$600 price point. You need a pretty hefty cpu to run the OS X, which is responsible for managing the touch interface and the display output.

You could say, "Well, i don't want an internet device, or photo manipulation," but the addition of those features is just because you CAN do it once you have OS X on the device; the hardware for both have been around for cell phones for a long time, even if WiFi hasn't really been State-side, so the costs aren't that high--WiFi is pretty common on European and Asian smartphones, the iPhone camera is standard fair, and EVERYBODY does BlueTooth. Apple has been using that class of hardware in iMacs and lappies for a while now, ditto on solid state motion sensors and ambient light sensors, thus spreading out the engineering costs over previous devices, and becoming familiar with OEM suppliers. So your looking at pretty low component costs, vs. the untried capacitive multitouch screen and the custom silicone they crammed in to make it all talk together (software is cheap, since you can fire the programers if it fails, and copy their work in perpetuity if works). Even if you strip out the WiFi hardware and the camera, you're going to need to replace the flash ram with much more expensive capacity to be a REAL video iPod, or drop in a 1.8" 30GB HDD (which is a nightmare, since then you have to add the HDD controller hardware, and the battery capacity has to increase BIG TIME to keep those little motors going, and you just got a very FAT iPod). Suddenly tomorrow's new iPod costs a heck of a lot more then today's $250 iPod.

I think we'll see a widescreen iPod pretty quickly, probably this holiday, but it won't be iPhone-cum-iPod. iPods sell so well because they fit in people's checkbooks without bleeding people dry. The widescreen standalone iPod can't cost much more then the comparable Zune, work as intuitively as the original iPod, and still net Apple a nice profit, otherwise, what's the point?

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The iPhone is not just a threat to the cell phone manufactures, but also all MP3 players, old and new.

Apple is not worried about any iPod+iTunes killers. I don't think any company would make the investment in building a better MP3 player knowing that Apple could turn the iPhone into an uber sexy wireless iPod at a moments notice. It's not worth the risk of losing those investment dollars.

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Sorry for the long winded rant--I couldn't have been second, too! :)

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When has Steve Jobs just sat on his laurels? Why do we think he's going start now? If Apple doesn't update the iPod with a Widescreen then that would be the biggest mistake yet.

For these reason, I can safely predict that if it's possible, and I'm sure it is - Steve will have a fullscreen iPod out by Christmas and that David is 100% WRONG.

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I comment as a customer, and lover of Apple's products for just under two years.

1: the iPhone in no way appeals to me: I already have a mobile phone that has the capability to do 10 to 20 things I don't use, need or have any interest in. It's smaller than the iPhone and much cheaper. A computer in my pocket, I do not want, as Yoda might say.

2: the thing that got me into Apple stuff in the first place, like so many others, was the iPod. My wife bought my a G4 iPod a few years ago, and I loved it. Still do. I use it to store all my music and to backup my Documents folder. I would buy a full-screen, touchy iPod TOMORROW, just so I could play films and so on.

Imagine, a full-screen iPod with visualiser...

I was in my local Apple store yesterday. The current iPods are beautiful, but I'll wait, thanks.

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I think there will be a full-screen iPod at some point in the near future but they may change the design to have a clear separation between the two. A full-screen iPod with the current design might look too much like the iPhone (to the masses, at least).

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Bull-ZUNE!

We won't see a iPhone-without-the-phone iPod BEFORE the iPhone, or even within a few months but it won't be one to two years. Apple no longer functions the way you expect when you said it would work 'to squeeze the iPhone for every penny they can'. Every iPod was replaced when it was at the top of its game ...with an even better iPod. Apple does not wait - if it can make enough.

The big mistake that you, and many other commentators, make is they assume the iPhone, iPod nano and regular sized iPod are marketed, and bought by the same market segment.

Sales of a 6G iPod (the iPhone form factor and software package, without phone but a large hard drive) will not diminish sales of the iPhone as the iPhone is an iPod nano with a cell phone and other stuff. Those who need a full-sized iPod will still need a full-sized iPod even if they get an iPhone.

Assuming Apple can get enough of the screens and they came build it and keep the same margins we will see a "6G" iPod in the fall of this year. The 6G iPod will come, it will be after the iPhone but all of your reasons and arguments a just... Bull-ZUNE.

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Of course it would cannibalize iPhone sales. You also have to consider that some people just don't need or want a convergence device. These are those people that don't mind taking your low end Nokia's, Samsung's, LG's etc etc.

At the same time, I think that alot of people won't like the new user interface of the iPhone. People are quick to say that it will fail or it's the best thing they've ever seen. That's what it comes down to right now. The people have only seen the phone. It might look like the zenith of UI's but you know that only like 20 people in the entire world have actually used the thing. And it's not limited to the UI. People are too quick to say that it will tank because of a lack of 3G. I've already mentioned this before, but what's the point of having a 3G iPhone here in America if there's barely a 3G network? Not to mention battery life and the rates. It's rather obvious that the reason Europe and Asia are being delay is due to the development of 3G iPhone for use in those regions

I'm not so sure about the new UI either. I love my Scroll Wheel. I don't need to look at my screen to change the song, raise the volume or even shuffle my songs. With the iPhone and an iPhone like iPod, I'll have to pull out the thing just to do those things I mentioned.

I think the first thing Apple needs to do is solve some of feature problems the iPod has. Things like a built in AM/FM tuner to voice recording capabilities.

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Lets see, the iPhone is an iPod with phone features and the disk is a wee bit smaller than most of us would like. So all Apple has to do is smack a larger disk on subsequent model of said iPhone and we would have an iPod with a larger disk and have a phone too just incase we want to make a phone call. So I'm thinking why would they spend more time making an updated iPod when technically they already have. IMHO the iPone is like a 4GB, 8GB Nano with a wide screen and a phone too... Plus the UI enhancements... I enjoyed this article! Looking at quite a few of these comments it just seems to me that we haven't quite wrapped our minds around what Apple has done here. Hopefully things would be clearer when we've gotten our hands on the device.
I am not about to complain about getting an iPod with phone capabilities NO WAY!

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I thought the iPhone IS the new iPod. That was the impression I got anyways.

I like it too.

I'm just going to wait for more room. When the iPod first came out it had a tiny hard drive... now look at it.

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