Filed under: Analysis / Opinion, Rumors, Apple TV
Speculation: TVPredictions sez RIP AppleTV
True confession time. I've never really gotten Philip Swann aka "Swanni", the guy over at TVPredictions.com who tries to forecast the TV industry. Today, TUAW reader Josh tipped us off that Swanni was predicting-i the end-i of the AppleTV-i, so I linked-i over to see what Swanni had to say.
Allison Moore writes that Apple TV is dead--but it just doesn't know it yet. Blaming poor retail sales (based on unnamed retail sources), Swanni predicts that Apple will pull the product off the market next year. To date, Apple has not released sales figures on Apple TV.
I think what Swanni misses (besides overlooking the new $399 160 GB Apple TVs now for sale) is the point that Apple TV has never actually fully launched. Until we see High Def content at the iTunes store and a way to link Apple TV to an affordable PVR solution, Apple TV just won't make full sense to the consumer. To date, Jobs has hinted at upcoming announcements for the content and third party vendors are only just now marrying their tuner lines into technology (like the Elgato Turbo.264 and the Miglia TVMax) that connects that content with Apple TV.
Is Apple TV dead? I just don't think so. I think Internet-sourced content is still in its infancy and that Apple is bold for jumping in so early and (at least for the moment) so confidently.
Thanks, Josh.
Get a WordPress.com Blog
![TUAW [Cafepress]](http://www.blogsmithmedia.com/www.tuaw.com/media/tuaw-cafepress-promo.png)
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
Mitch said 8:41PM on 6-04-2007
I would buy one if it worked with older non-HDTV sets. I don't need HD now but I would like to be able to view my iTunes content on my TV without having to jump through hoops to do it.
Reply
Galley said 8:01AM on 6-05-2007
If Apple offered HD content, I would've bought two of them. Instead, I stuck with DirecTV HD. I still may get one to listen to my lossless audio library.
Reply
neil said 8:50PM on 6-04-2007
Apple TV will not be a success because it's just another device in the living room to confuse the wife with. That is, how many setups will only have a TV and the apple TV? Most will probably have cable/sat. and DVD at a minimum. Apple needs to simplify the whole experience, not just the iTunes experience.
Reply
asdavis said 8:57PM on 6-04-2007
A few months ago, they were saying the same things about Aperture. And now, a ton of photographers love it and you could call it a success.
It's important to remember that the Apple TV is still in it's first generation and a lot of developments are probably in the pipeline for a second generation to come out later this year. The YouTube module is a good start, and is a sign that maybe the ability to surf the internet and the iTunes store through the device is coming down the line.
Reply
G said 9:03PM on 6-04-2007
It's a base platform, which Apple can either vastly improve upon or not. I'm not sold yet, but I can see a point where I would be. Of course, I can also see a point where I'd pay for .Mac but that has not materialized for years. Here's to the crazy ones.
Reply
Ozbone said 9:08PM on 6-04-2007
He's nuts. There's no way that Apple will walk away from the Apple TV this soon. They'll make some adjustments, see what happens, and then maybe try something else. But just give up and walk away from their investment? No way.
Reply
andrew harrison said 9:14PM on 6-04-2007
i don't get the "predicting-i the end-i of the AppleTV-i" what's with the "-i"?
Reply
Silverhammer said 9:49PM on 6-04-2007
Out of the box, AppleTV cannot play DVDs, it cannot rip DVDs, it cannot record video, it cannot connect directly the Internet, it cannot play games, it cannot manage torrents, it cannot play unsupported file types, it cannot work with my existing televisions, and it cannot be moved once installed… at least not easily.
So why should I pay $400 for the "convenience" of simply copying files from one side of the room to the other, when I can pay $20 for a video adapter that connects my four year-old iBook — which does all of those things and more — to any television I want?
AppleTV is a solution in search of a problem. Or more accurately, it's a badly disguised attempt to lock us even more tightly into the iTunes Store. Good riddance.
Reply
rmb said 10:12PM on 6-04-2007
swanni is a DIRECTV fanboy, and if it's not dtv related he thinks it will fail. look at his other articles.
Reply
Just a little cash... said 10:10PM on 6-04-2007
I just don't get all of this hand-wringing over Apple TV. Face it, it's only $300, which is a rounding error if you've invested in a home theater setup with an HD TV. I mean come on, you'll spend more than that on just cables if you buy into the whole Monster Cable thing... which many people do. It's not as if you're making a life changing financial investment with Apple TV.
That said, I bought one. Works as advertised and was easy to setup. I display my photos, play my music and watch videos that I've converted using Handbrake (from my private collection). They look every bit as good as the DVD. And what a great, easy to use interface.
Sure, it's a version 1. Please, please give me internet radio... And DVD quality movie rentals. (HD is not required but would be nice.)
But just remember, it's only three hundred bucks.
Reply
KiltBear said 10:23PM on 6-04-2007
Has anyone bothered to notice that YouTube will be hosting local content from Hearst TV outlets? The genre of the content is at the level of Cable Access TV (highschool games, etc) but the quality will local TV outlet levels.
Sounds like a trial balloon to me. If it works well, we might see more strongly copyrighted material makes its way to YouTube and therefor to the ATV.
Then there is this relationship with AT&T and the possibility of downloading on demand content from their cable...
Don't discount it yet.
Reply
arno said 10:42PM on 6-04-2007
what's up with the art for this post? what does eyetv has to do with it? [a]
Reply
Doc said 10:45PM on 6-04-2007
apple tv "is" dead...except for the niche market that uses it..unless apple wakes up and get more HD content! how does a company that is into tech like apple miss the HD train, content wise. I hate MS ,but i have to give it to them in this department every bit of content is at least 480p wide screen or 720p.. this is where the itunes store should be. I hope that there is some real good quality content coming in HD or start getting the wood and nails for the coffin....
Reply
vlady said 11:39PM on 6-04-2007
apple tv is dead. this is why S. Jobs called it a 'hobby'. it just ain't doing well.
Reply
Jaysee said 12:17AM on 6-05-2007
i'm from a place with no iTunes video content (music videos don't count) and no really good and widely used fast internet connection. Apple TV here, is dead. With no content easily available and no really quick way of downloading content, it cannot succeed.
Reply
The Geek said 12:55AM on 6-05-2007
I love the Apple TV. Even my wife loves the Apple TV, she loved it so much that she even has a Mac Mini. She had a Dell Laptop and we did have a media center pc. We got rid of the media center, added a DVR and the Apple TV and she finds it much easier to manage it all. It was that ease of use that gave me the in to get her a Mini. She loves the Mini as well.
Reply
tundraboy said 12:42AM on 6-05-2007
Notice that people who proclaim the AppleTV is dead are basing their conclusion on the device's current feature/capability list. Well la-dee-dah, we have a whole gaggle of Einsteins here! If the iPod never expanded its capabilities beyond its 1G incarnation, that would have been long dead too.
There are two words in the English dictionary that have the power to light a five alarm fire under AppleTV sales: "Now Renting". The day Apple makes that announcement, I'm running out to the Mall of America to get me my AppleTV.
Reply
marcus said 1:02AM on 6-05-2007
Everyone thinks they are a technology expert. Here's the deal with the Apple TV - its a product that had just began in a new market - it will take time to start a new product in this new market - I don't know if all you experts even remember how few iPods were sold the first year - Apple will continue to improve the Apple TV over time - at this point its meant to be a way for an average consumer to easily view their computer media on a TV. For those who complain it locks you into iTunes or their country does not have movies in the Store - I believe they mean locks you into the iTunes Store not iTunes the software that is a great free media organizer. You can use all your own media (music, videos, pictures) - you don't have to buy from the iTunes Store.
Reply
Trevis said 12:53AM on 6-05-2007
So since the appletv currently has no hd content, or many of the other features most of us would love to see as a first generation model it is dead? Remember itunes was not around with the first generation ipods and since there was no way to download music or videos it was doomed to failure. As a first generation product, it needs to be given time to mature and we'll see if it fails or not.
Reply
Matteo said 2:45AM on 6-05-2007
The best way to turn the AppleTV into a success is to release, in Europe, TV shows that never aired... That would get LOADS of people hooked to it. But I doubt it is feasable.
More feasable would be to give the rest of the world, outside the US, some video content. So at least you can see how well it might sell there (I'm not talking about releasing the entire catalogue, but some movies, tv shows, SOMETHING).
Reply