Filed under: Analysis / Opinion, iTS, iTunes
iPod's victims: first CDs, now DVDs?
Forbes' Brian Caulfield suggests that Blockbuster and Netflix should be very concerned about Apple's rumored move into digital movie rentals. He suggests that history has proven the iPod to be a very disruptive device. Just look at CD sales, says Mr. Cauflied, their decline over the last several years certainly proves that people want their media in a digital form and they are willing to turn to Apple for it.While I agree that Blockbuster and Netflix should be worried, I don't think Apple will be driving physical DVD rental stores out of business anytime soon. The one advantage that Blockbuster has is bandwidth. Movies, if you want them to look good on large screens, take up a lot of space. That means whether you're streaming them or downloading them you need a pretty fat pipe to have an enjoyable experiences. Compare this with the rather small files that most songs, in MP3 format, create and you can see how the music business was greatly impacted by digital distribution whether it be legally via iTunes, or when the floodgates really opened during the freewheeling days of Napster (I was an undergrad during that time, and I can tell you that I saw many a computer running Napster. I, of course, never downloaded anything because I didn't actually own a computer in college). Theoretically it could take less time to drive to a Blockbuster and rent a DVD than it would to download the movie. This will become less of a problem, and digital rentals more popular, when broadband speeds make downloading multi-gigabyte files take a matter of moments (in some areas this is already true).
Clearly digital movie distribution, both rental and for purchasing, is the future, but sadly I think this future is still a few years off from supplanting those shiny disks we all know and love.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
Galley said 11:10PM on 12-28-2007
I have purchased several hundred CDs in the past two years. I don't want low-quality (128Kbps) digital downloads; I want high-quality CDs.
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Simon Arch said 3:32AM on 12-29-2007
Amen! I'm not opposed to purchasing digital media, but until I can buy downloads in lossless (audio) or full HD (video) it'll be physical media for me. That way I can roll my own compressed copies while controlling the quality of the final product.
Still...the rental thing might be interesting. We'll see if it's for real (sure looks like it) and if the terms are favourable.
Andrew said 7:39AM on 12-29-2007
I often wonder why people bother with CDs and FLAC files when most people can't tell the difference even if their stereo is top of the line.
Let's face it, there's a lower limit before MP3s clearly sound inferior, above that it's hard to claim any REAL advantage. Audiophiles are exactly that, audiophiles. It's a collectors fetish. And all stereos that don't cost more than your house pretty much bite when compared to live music.
Simon Arch said 10:43AM on 12-29-2007
"I often wonder why people bother with CDs and FLAC files when most people can't tell the difference even if their stereo is top of the line."
Because I can control the quality of the final MP3? I may not have the best ears in the world but there's a HUGE aural difference between AAC @ 128k and a LAME encoded MP3. The former is full of distracting compression artifacts. The MP3 won't be perfect, but it'll be closer to perfect than the AAC file. Encoding AAC at a similar bitrate to the LAME MP3 sounds about the same as the MP3.
In the end, it boils down to personal preference. I prefer to work from CDs and lossless audio. Someone else might not care. Whatever floats your boat, man.
Leonard Nimrod said 11:28PM on 12-28-2007
"Just look at CD sales, says Mr. Cauflied, their decline over the last several years certainly proves that people want their media in a digital form and they are willing to turn to Apple for it."
FYI, Mr. Caufield, CD data 'IS' digital.
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Taylor said 11:41PM on 12-28-2007
CD has digital audio on a physical medium. You also get the liner notes and CD case
iTunes puts this digital audio on your hard drive, from where you can't really move it. No liner notes, and the case is your hard drive.
I still prefer my music on CD. I like having a physical copy of the music, that when I'm old, I can put into my vintage CD player and listen to, and not listen to the undoubted crap that will come around in the 2020s or so.
Leonard Nimrod said 11:49PM on 12-28-2007
Yo Taylor, what part of the word 'digital' escapes you? Your comment about liner notes and a jewel case have no bearing on my comment. Are you making some point which is better? My comment is pointing out a fact that Mr. Caufield apparently doesn't understand. Apparently you don't understand it either with this comment: "iTunes puts this digital audio on your hard drive, from where you can't really move it." iTunes has options built in to create typical audio CDs, MP3 CDs and data CDs (which maintain the stored file type). These are all digital formats and are easily transfered regardless of where you purchased (or stole) them from or which program you use to organize your music.
Dondi said 11:33PM on 12-28-2007
I think this is a bigger deal than it appears to be. First, the delivery platform is AppleTV and iPod so expect to see some enabling AppleTV upgrades to be announced at MacWorld (streaming anyone?). Additionally, next-gen, video friendly broadband (ala FiOS, Uverse, etc.) are already available to millions of American households (and growing) so the bandwidth issue is not in-surmountable. History has shown that it is unwise to bet against Apple, especially when the technical barriers are low!
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Paul said 11:43PM on 12-28-2007
I don't see them being worried at $2.99 a rental. That's outrageous compared to Netflix. Now.. if they come up with a monthly subscription plan comparable to Netflix with all the major releases... I'm on board :) I'll even pay a small premium just so I can legally watch stuff on my iphone.
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Leonard Nimrod said 6:59PM on 12-30-2007
The slot-based subscription model ala Netflix may happen. But I don't think so.
A $2.99 rental fee may also happen (note that new movies at Blockbuster cost $3.99+tax). Again, I don't think so.
What I think will happen will be a $4.99 rental model that will be available IMMEDIATELY to watch via the AppleTV (with a software update) or a computer with iTunes, a way to watch it on your iPod and iPhone and all without leaving your house, dealing with late fees and the possibility it will be out-of-stock, and not having to wait for it to be packaged and mailed to you. $4.99 may look step but convenience means a lot to the typical Apple customer.
LD said 12:38AM on 12-29-2007
I disagree about $2.99 being outrageous compared to Netflix. That's just nonsense if you look at real-world use of Netflix. A power user wouldn't benefit, but the average user would.
If you rent 3 movies a week on the $16.99 plan you average about $1.45 a movie. Do you think the average Netflix user rents that many per week? I would suspect the average on the 3 at a time plan is more like 6 per month, which puts a per movie fee at just under $3.
The advantage, as I see it, is portability. For me this is huge. I don't benefit in the least from Netflix's Watch It Now. I use Macs at home and it's Windows DRM. Why they chose it I can't say. Windows DRM has consistently failed miserably. It was a bad choice, but it is the choice they made. Also, their selection is crap. I predict iTunes has a better selection within a month than Netflix has.
I travel for work. Often I am without high-speed. I can't download Netflix movies, even if they had selection, even if it worked on my Mac. When I travel for work I am on an XP laptop so that's not an issue. However, I still can't watch their movies since I'm not online.
With iTunes, if I can download, and I would bet money I can, then I can watch on my PC, my Mac, online, or offline.
I do hope they have a subscription plan as Roughly Drafted has outlined. That would be perfect and fit logically in with a Netflix-style rental system. You would have "slots" and could check out X many at a time according to your subscription. I would pay for that in a heartbeat.
Paul said 11:48PM on 12-28-2007
The other issue with the Fortune magazine article is that the iPod killed CD's... I believe a small thing called Napster came along a bit before the iPod. Sure the iPod popularized MP3's, but Napster was the problem, not the iPod.
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thethirdmoose said 12:07AM on 12-29-2007
I don't know if bandwidth is such a problem. You can get a DVD-quality movie down to 700 MB without losing a lot of quality if you use a codec like DivX or h.264. On a 1.5 mb/s dsl connection, that's a little more than an hour to download - comparable to driving down to blockbusters, and definitely faster than netflix. It will, however, need an "all you can eat" plan to compete with netflix.
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Leonard Nimrod said 12:31AM on 12-29-2007
that is for the whole movie to download. Unless you plan to jump right to the closing credits the point is moot. The file is currently playable immediately in iTunes and hope that the AppleTV software will be updated to allow renting from within the menu with immediate playback.
There will certainly be plenty of people who prefer the number of films they can rent a month via Netflx for one price but there will be plenty who will pay for the convenience of an instant, "impulse buy" model. Neither Blockbuster nor Netflix can compete with this. They also can't compete with the ease at which the files can be synced to the iPod and iPhone. Sure there are nice conversion apps that are fairly simple but they are not, by any stretch of the word, instant.
Andrew said 1:29PM on 12-29-2007
I'd be happy to rent movies from iTunes if they were able to provide all the extras I get with DVD rentals from Netflix: deleted scenes, commentary tracks, etc. In fact I've often wondered why the studios aren't offering those kinds of things as standalone inexpensive digital downloads already.
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Rafe H. said 1:52AM on 12-29-2007
When CDs first debuted, companies were not fearful of pirating because of the current bandwidth limitations. This is well-documented.
Netflix, being a bit more forward-thinking than Scott about this issue :), certainly consider Apple and Amazon as competitors. I don't think they're fearful though. Certainly Netflix knows what it needs to do to compete when the bandwidth arrives.
Blockbuster isn't fearful because they haven't even considered this issue.
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BJ Nemeth said 2:34AM on 12-29-2007
Apple has a huge leg up in a battle with Netflix because Apple already has video software in use on millions and millions of computers, both Mac and Windows.
So if Apple and Netflix were to have identical downloadable offerings, with similar terms, which company would you bet on?
It'll take a few years and a lot of big media cooperation before an online rental library (Apple or otherwise) can rival the library of physical DVDs offered by Netflix.
I don't see how a Netflix-style subscription model would work for downloads, at least not with a "one-at-a-time," or "three-at-a-time" system. With downloads being nearly instant, you would only ever need one movie in your "possession" at a time. When you finished watching, just download a movie. You could get through 12 movies in a 24 hour period -- not so with Netflix, because of the time required to mail movies. And that difference in access certainly plays into the cost argument.
The Netflix online download model is genius, where you get a specified number of hours per month, to spend however you'd like. But I don't see a system like that working for iTunes. iTunes is set up for files that can be downloaded to iPods and iPhones -- so those files would need a time limit rather than a bandwidth limit.
I just don't see any possibility of a subscription movie model for Apple's iTunes. If Apple does movie rentals, it will be self-destructing (but portable) individual files that last for 1-3 days, and cost $3-5 each.
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Christina Warren said 2:41AM on 12-29-2007
For me, download services lack something that is absolutely paramount when I choose to buy a DVD (and my DVD collection is very, very, very large): extra content. Lots of people don't care and will buy rental from iTunes or On-Demand or any other download (in essence) service, but I buy DVDs and I use Netflix because of the extra content. I like having deleted scenes, director commentaries, making-of-documentaries, etc.
Nothing against just watching the movie without anything else, but I subscribe to HBO, Showtime, Starz, Encore and get IFC, Sundance and a few other commercial free movie channels as part of my cable line-up. There's too much stuff that I can watch for free (especially via On-Demand, which has tons of HD content), not even including my physical rental options, that make using iTunes for movie rentals absolutely useless. If it's 3 AM and I absolutely MUST watch a film from Fox that I don't have on DVD and that isn't on On-Demand - OK, sure - but barring that...
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james said 3:12AM on 12-29-2007
Brian, You are an idiot! Here are the real reasons to low CD sales:
1 good one in an entire CD is not going to cut it and...
Limewire
Shareaza
Kazaa
iMesh
BearShare
Should I continue?
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Blake said 3:32AM on 12-29-2007
Not to mention, Torrents.