Filed under: Analysis / Opinion, iPod Family
Is the iPod responsible for national crime wave?
Website MassLive.com is suggesting that there's a positive correlation between the increase in crime that occurred in the US during 2005 and 2006 and the popularity of the iPod (this isn't the first time we've seen such a suggestion).Washington's Urban Institute noted that the 1990's saw a reduction in the incidents of violent crime, while 2005 and 2006 saw a spike. At the same time, iPod sales were soaring. In 2005 Apple sold 42 million iPod, and almost 90 million in 2006.
Now, we all know that iPods are stolen frequently. They're easy to grab, users are frequently "in their own world" while absorbed in their music and they sell well. It's not difficult (unless the thieves are idiots) but that doesn't mean that a single factor - iPod popularity - is responsible for the national violent crime rate.
Use common sense when walking around with your iPod. Pay attention to your surroundings, keep it inside your clothing if possible (a jacket pocket) or even in your hand and, most importantly, ditch the tell-tale white ear buds. Or just encase it in machined aluminum.
Thanks, Edsel!
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
N. Ziarek said 8:27AM on 3-05-2008
Just because their is correlation does not mean there is causation. Starting in 2005, I started running. Now, in 2008, I am running more than I did in 2005.
Therefore, there is a correlation between the amount I run and the crime rate as well.
Hope the cops don't come looking for me with the damning piece of evidence.
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Jesse said 8:37AM on 3-05-2008
The best solution to keep your iPod from being stolen:
http://hideapod.com/
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Garp said 8:38AM on 3-05-2008
Oh my! Sorry TUAW, but you have made a mistake I teach my first years students: "Cum hoc ergo propter hoc", i.e. correlation implies causality. Here is just an example of how crazy you can go by using that argument:
"Pirates are responsible for global warming"
http://www.venganza.org/piratesarecool4.gif
since there is a correlation between number of pirates and earth temperature.
I would advise TUAW to have a first year college student with some knowledge of statistics before publishing such a blatant mistake.
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Scott McNulty said 9:20AM on 3-05-2008
Garp, did you read the whole post? Dave says, "Now, we all know that iPods are stolen frequently. They're easy to grab, users are frequently "in their own world" while absorbed in their music and they sell well. It's not difficult (unless the thieves are idiots) but that doesn't mean that a single factor - iPod popularity - is responsible for the national violent crime rate."
So, he agrees with you (as do the rest of us here at TUAW) in that this 'correlation' is meaningless.
LD said 10:40AM on 3-05-2008
Scotty, Dave is still suggesting that iPod increase is a factor contributing to crime increase, even if not the only factor.
That's just nonsense.
Then he goes on to give readers tips on how to prevent iPod crime, again indicating he thinks there is something to the statistics.
He doesn't get it, and apparently neither do you. Garp has it right.
Garp said 10:55AM on 3-05-2008
Dear Scott
I did read it. I believe you got a headline but not a story (since it is wrong). Pity!
Amidee said 8:43AM on 3-05-2008
This reminds me something related to pirates...
http://montaraventures.com/pix/piratestats.jpg
:D
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mentalsticks said 8:45AM on 3-05-2008
I think it's the other way around: the increase in crime rate has caused the iPod's popularity. People need comforting in an increasingly hostile world so they tend to wrap themselves in familiarity: music they have heard before, songs that give them joy...
My advice would still be to purchase a small, concealable handgun instead of a portable music player.
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AdamY said 9:07AM on 3-05-2008
Maybe I'm just old-fashioned but I always believed that it was criminals that were responsible for crime...
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Chris M said 9:13AM on 3-05-2008
there's correlation between nut kicking and carrot intake. :-)
whoever interpreted these statistics is an ass monkey!
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Nick said 9:19AM on 3-05-2008
5 words: Correlation does not imply causation.
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jonny appleseed said 9:35AM on 3-05-2008
It appears the original idea came out of Washington. Makes total sense. Lots of silly ideas come out of Washington.
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zsteiner said 9:41AM on 3-05-2008
Correlation isn't sufficient to indicate causation, but it is necessary. We need to establish the temporal ordering (i.e., iPod popularity came before the crime rates) and eliminate all other possible causal variables. A good theory (iPods are easy to steal and their owners don't pay attention) is a good start, but other variables would probably come into play. For example, the number of churches is positively correlated to the crime rate in a city. They are both caused by a third variable: population density. So, maybe affluence of particular part of a city's population causes iPod use and increased crime.
Welcome to the one of the problems with social science research! This is why so many psychologists prefer lab experiments, so they can be more sure about the causation.
Zach, Psychology PhD student
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Chris said 9:48AM on 3-05-2008
Our local Police Chief in Lincoln, Nebraska is a bit of a blog-star. His page is the best writing by a governmental official I have ever read. He posted about this fake-news trend today.
"Testing the iCrime theory"
http://lpd304.blogspot.com/2008/03/testing-icrime-theory.html
Good stuff, just like always.
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benjamin said 9:54AM on 3-05-2008
I was mugged for my iphone last saturday.. luckily I got away and they only got the headphones.
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Jonathan said 11:11AM on 3-05-2008
Could we please move on from the "correlation does not imply causality" ? I think it's pretty clear and obvious that no one here believes that (unless you are reading this too, mr. Ballmer)
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ZeroCorpse said 12:29PM on 3-05-2008
Yeah. And this "money" stuff is really popular, and it started a crime wave, too!!! People are always trying to steal money!
If we just stopped producing money, then nobody would try to steal it and nobody would be tempted to become a thief!
::rollseyes::
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Blaktornado said 3:23PM on 3-05-2008
Do what all the cool kids do:
Put your iPod Earbud wire under your garment. Hides a lot of the wire.
Secondly, keep the iPod in a pocket or something. It's harder to steal that way - especially if you're wearing tight jeans.
Next, don't flash it around. Get a controller of some sort that doesn't require you to take your iPod out out to change tracks (something like the Gear4Blueye).
Finally, grow your hair really long so people can't see the iPod wire sticking out from under your shirt ;)
I, personally, find that the Shuffle is the best Anti-Crime iPod.
It has a clip (so you can clip it to a belt strap thingy on your pants) so thieves won't get any luck inside your pockets and it can't be pulled away from you without you noticing, before it's too late. It's small and also navigable from under clothing so need to ever get it out in public (Although with the lack of any manly, non-silver colours, you're probably not going to unless you're a woman :P What I keep wondering is why the RED Shuffle looks more burgundy/deep pink)... but more importantly, it's cheap so if it IS stolen then you're not $200 out of pocket.
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Sun said 3:52PM on 3-05-2008
No. PEOPLE are responsible for the national crime wave.
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required said 7:07PM on 3-05-2008
They must mean the administration when they say crime wave.
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