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Thoughts on Apple's last Macworld Expo keynote

Late yesterday, Apple surprised pundits, fans and presumably IDG by announcing that Macworld Expo 2009 would be their last as an official exhibitor. Along with that news came the announcement that Phil Schiller will deliver the keynote address in place of Steve Jobs. People will speculate about the reasons for Apple's move for some time. Here are my thoughts.

There must be a financial component. Sure, Apple announced $25 billion in cash reserves and no debt at the end of Q4 in October, but it's very expensive to attend these events, even for Apple. Consider the extent of Apple's presence at Macworld Expo, between machines, people, displays, etc. Even software giant Adobe has dropped out.

Of course, it goes beyond the cost of the show. Nearly every year, Apple's stock dips after the keynote presentation when rumored products or services aren't introduced. It's a silly, unfortunate and routine drop... which brings me to point number two.

The rumors themselves. The current iPod nano model was all but revealed prematurely when photos of a case produced by a 3rd party manufacturer appeared online. When Steve Jobs mentioned it at the official press event a few days later, some attendees laughed. Steve responded by saying, "It's not funny" in a stern tone of voice. He was clearly pissed.

That wasn't the first time Apple had been scooped by the media. In 2002, the Canadian edition of Time Magazine leaked a cover photo of Steve and Jon Ive with the G4 iMac just prior to its introduction at Macworld Expo. You'll also remember that Apple aggressively pursued rumor site Thinksecret last year, and it's currently offline. Not only do rumors hurt the company financially, they take some of the excitement out of product updates, and in turn, the media's enthusiasm. When the media basically knows what's coming, their interest wanes just enough. Apple wants more control.

Control over product schedules outside the constraints of Expo keynotes. Once Apple steps away from the tick-tock of January showcases, it will be able to stage a press event and introduce a product or service when it's actually ready, not when a certain calendar date arrives.

Finally, I've always found the timing to be odd. The first week of January is right after all the major winter holidays. People are tapped out financially and enjoying the loot they picked up the in weeks before from family and friends. Asking them to spend another grand on a computer just then isn't ideal. Alternatively, Apple has consistently released iPod updates in September, just as kids are going back to school.

The inevitable question is one of Steve's health, but I think John Gruber got this one right. If Steve was ill, they'd send in a proxy like Phil but keep the rest of the game intact. The fact that they've abandoned the whole thing says to me that it's a political and financial move more than anything else.

Time Magazine asks the health question right away in their reaction article, quoting an Apple spokesperson as saying, "Phil is giving the keynote because this is Apple's last year in the show, and it doesn't make sense for us to make a major investment in a trade show we will no longer be attending." Even if Steve is as healthy as a horse but still looks thin, his appearance could have an affect on the company's stock. I don't think I've ever seen a company whose financial well being is so closely tied to the health of its CEO.

For now, at least, IDG plans to put on Macworld Expo 2010, with or without Apple. I say more power to them, but as a person who attended two Macworld Expos in Boston without Apple, my faith is waning.

It is a bit sad that Steve won't wrap up the final Macworld Expo; we can hope that he'll make a special appearance as Phil Schiller's One More Thing.

Late yesterday, Apple surprised pundits, fans and presumably IDG by announcing that Macworld Expo 2009 would be their last as an official...
 

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unteins

It is very clear that Apple has begun the long process of succession planning for the future day when Steve decides he can move to a Board seat and let someone else run the day to day show.

Phil Schiller is on the list of internal Apple people who could replace Jobs someday. The normally reclusive Jon Ive was trotted out to do part of the introduction of the Unibody MacBooks a little while back. Guess what, he is also on the list of possible Steve replacements when the time comes.

I expect we'll see more Apple executives giving addresses in the coming years as the company tries to figure out if any of them is right for the public face of Apple.

And succession planning isn't about Steve's health or lack thereof whatever the case may be. It is standard procedure for a company to figure out how they are going to transition from the founder to a hired gun so to speak.

December 17 2008 at 9:03 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
This Is Me

For me, personally, it's clear it's the timing issue coupled with being chained to Expo dates. And for Steve, it's all about control. It's insane to announce your big product *after* the Christmas buying season, *after* most companies have ended their fiscal year, etc. Your consumer stuff (thinking students and shoppers) should come out in the late summer/early fall, and your pro-level stuff, well, it should come out when it's damn well ready.

I can see why some will lament the loss of the Expo, but I think it's time has passed.

December 17 2008 at 6:02 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
badweasel

But doesn't THIS site (and others like it such as gizmodo and engadget) profit off of the propagation of these rumors?

December 17 2008 at 1:54 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
chesama

just as an fyi -

Affect is a verb (99% of the time). Effect is a noun (99% of the time).

steve's appearance would never have an affect, only an effect.

December 17 2008 at 1:49 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Tony

I think the end of the Stevenote is 100% related to Steve Jobs' health. Steve could be the janitor at Apple headquarters and still give the keynote at these events because he has charisma and a knack for persuasion (reality distortion fields, anyone?). The rumors and leaks are red herrings, in my opinion, since they're been a regular occurrence for years.

As for Apple pulling out of MacWorld, in this case the show cost is a red herring. This all has to do with cutting IDG out of the picture. Apple started this several years ago after IDG moved the summer MacWorld back to Boston and Apple refused to follow (by the way, thanks for snubbing my town, Steve). Apple instead moved the keynote to the WWDC. Now it's coming full circle by Apple pulling out of the winter MacWorld.

December 17 2008 at 1:15 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Marcus Krueger

love the "One More Thing" idea. Would be a nice touch. But I doubt that'll happen

December 17 2008 at 12:59 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Mike

I have to disagree with only the point of product release schedules. If Apple wanted more control of product releases, they would say so and do so. An announcement of Apple abbandoning the "traditional" macworld releases and not announcing new products at macworld would resolve the new product expectation timeline quickly. All apple has to do is say the Steve has nothing to announce, apple is moving to a non-scheduled release cycle to be more competitive. They already laid the foundation with the music event where the new Nanos were released.

December 17 2008 at 12:41 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Alex Morach

Even as a PC user, I look forward to Stevenotes a lot. I can easily see why Apple would want to pull out of trade shows like this, but no Stevenote? At the last one? I sure hope Jobs makes at least a special apperance. I also think that they will release new products (almost certainly desktops). I think we all know that the Mac desktops are in real need of a refresh. We'll just have to get used to Schiller introducing them.

December 17 2008 at 11:54 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Coffee Jones

The keynotes in this youtube era are a kind of anachronism. They were a lot of trouble just for a few product unveilings.

If Steve wants to put up a video with a product unveiling, he can do it within a studio.
On the upside it'll give some of those presenters a chance to get their demos running cleanly, though the magic of editing.

December 17 2008 at 11:41 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Cello

This was really a great article, thanks Dave!

December 17 2008 at 11:36 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
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