Filed under: Analysis / Opinion, Hardware, Odds and ends, Apple Financial
Apple market share drops slightly in the past year
Don't look now, but Apple's slow market share incline may have just turned into a slow decline. Not only does a new report by research and advisory company Gartner, Inc say that Apple's market share in the US slipped just a little bit over the past year (from 7.5% to 7.4%), but that as you can see above, there's a steep little decline from the 8% it was in the last quarter of 2008. The PC market overall is down as well, a 6.5% decline since the beginning of last year.
Does that mean it's time to sell the AAPL stock? Probably not -- as you can see from the graph, there's still been a nice steady growth in market share since 2006, and the current economy has all ships falling a little bit with the tide as it goes out. But it does mean that Apple might be having more trouble than they want breaking out into more of the market. If that is their goal anyway -- Gartner's report also notes that Apple's relatively higher ASP (Average Selling Price) "created challenges for it in the tough economy," but when have we ever known them to go cheap?
So Apple's not up in the short term, but who is? Well maybe Goldman Sachs is. But we don't entirely trust those guys. And in case you're wondering: none of this is actual financial advice, and none of it should be used to make any decisions that might lose you money. You've been warned.
[via TechMeme]
Does that mean it's time to sell the AAPL stock? Probably not -- as you can see from the graph, there's still been a nice steady growth in market share since 2006, and the current economy has all ships falling a little bit with the tide as it goes out. But it does mean that Apple might be having more trouble than they want breaking out into more of the market. If that is their goal anyway -- Gartner's report also notes that Apple's relatively higher ASP (Average Selling Price) "created challenges for it in the tough economy," but when have we ever known them to go cheap?
So Apple's not up in the short term, but who is? Well maybe Goldman Sachs is. But we don't entirely trust those guys. And in case you're wondering: none of this is actual financial advice, and none of it should be used to make any decisions that might lose you money. You've been warned.
[via TechMeme]
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
david said 9:11PM on 4-16-2009
This just in: The Unofficial Weblog posts news well after every other outlet.
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K said 9:21PM on 4-16-2009
Ugh. More rubbish reporting.
1) Look at profit.
2) -1.1% after quarter-upon-quarter growth rates of 40%+.
3) See point 1 and 2.
Basically, the interesting things to note:
1) Acer has pushed Dell down, probably with cheap netbooks.
2) Apple has kept their units shipped pretty much the same throughout the recession, and considering their profit margins, that is amazing.
Besides, let's actually wait for the REAL figures from Apple, which are invariably ALWAYS better than the incorrect analyst figures...
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SubGenius said 9:01AM on 4-17-2009
3. Consumers in-the-know know that Snow Leopard is going to drop this summer. Many are holding off purchases till then.
4. Consumers in-the-know know that the 3rd gen iPhone is going to drop this summer. Many are holding off purchases till then.
Mr. Fry said 3:45AM on 4-18-2009
Yeah..because consumers in-the-know totally exist in large enough numbers to affect market share...
And why is this rubbish reporting? Published figures are no longer acceptable unless they come from the mouth of the very company who might like the results skewed?
kfoley6 said 6:59PM on 4-17-2009
When Apple has gone cheap, they have failed. The PM 4400 was a terrible machine for Apple.
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scarabic said 10:02PM on 4-16-2009
Apple is missing the netbook phenomenon. I don't blame them. I kind of ignored it myself for a while until I realized all the contenders are under $500. Then I woke up and realized something important was going on.
Apple is a long way away from being able to ship a sub-$500 laptop. They're straining to ship a 2-year old model at $1000 right now, and the Air just shows that they bet on portability being a premium feature and missed the boat.
Scramble, adjust, and surprise us, Apple. You've done it before.
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puhsitch said 12:10AM on 4-17-2009
What are the typical profit margins on netbooks? I have a feeling that they're not really up to Apple's standards. I imagine that the only way they'll do something close to a netbook is by making a super-sized iPhone type of thing.
SubGenius said 9:10AM on 4-17-2009
A 10" MacBook Air will replace the white MacBook for $999.
The redesigned 13" MacBook Air will be lowered to $1499.
These will drop after Snow Leopard ships later this year.
The new MacBook Airs may be available with 3G and possibly subsidized by AT&T.
apple1loop said 10:51PM on 4-16-2009
But in a failing economy even, should marketshare be expected to change? It's more like a ratio, and ratios aren't dependent on how many people are buying computers in general, but rather the relationship between the number of people buying Macs vs. the number of people buying PCs. So in this case, it's safe to say that it's not the economy causing this issue, but perhaps other factors altogether that are convincing people to get PCs more than Macs, or to switch to PC from Mac.
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David Robison said 12:27AM on 4-17-2009
From the ratio perspective right, it shouldn't change. But because this is an economic crisis, people are on tighter budgets and going for the cheaper models (or at least, what appear to be cheaper): PCs. In times like these, people react most to the obvious price they see right now. TCO isn't so obvious.
This is why the new Microsoft ads annoy me so much. Yeah, those folks are getting cheaper machines, but they're getting less value and lots of headaches.
Mr. Fry said 3:39AM on 4-18-2009
Less value? How do you figure? Because they can choose to purchase the exact amount of computer they really need, rather than be forced into distinct price brackets?
And how about you notice the reality that is the netbook? They're way cheaper than Macs, they do way less, they are built to poorer standards, they run XP, and people BUY them. Not everyone needs what a mac can offer. Cheap machines like netbooks, or PC's as a whole, can serve people just well with much less of an impact on their wallets.
Azazello said 12:06AM on 4-17-2009
Interesting but misleading. The numbers are representing traditional computing platforms with the more recent inclusion of netbooks. The problem, you see, is that netbooks can hardly do more that 'certain' smartphones. In fact as the Wall Street Journal was reporting in late Fall the surprising demographic anomaly was that folks in the lower income brackets were buying iPhones -- to roll in DSL/cable charges with their cellphone bills...
The problem with analytics is often the sampling to begin with...
The problem with journalism is often that the article needs to be stirring...
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Patriks7 said 6:18AM on 4-17-2009
"Interesting but misleading."
How is it misleading?
Azazello said 8:51AM on 4-17-2009
Apple's market-share has dropped because of the increasing popularity of netbooks (in a troubled economy) -- that can do _less_ than smartphones -- the stats include only "traditional" computing platforms. The iPhone (and the Blackberry with the other internet accessing gadgets -- XBox anybody?) are not considered. However, with cloud computing on us, we will have to re-think our categories.
I do not see IBM or Sun anywhere in the stats because servers and mainframes are in a different non-consumer category. Believe me, with the explosive growth of server-farms the _number_ of those units sold would dwarf laptop- and netbook sales.
cheers!
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Roger said 11:09AM on 4-17-2009
Bah.
Everywhere I look, people around me (former PC users for the most part) are buying their first Mac. They are buying an iPod touch. They are loving them.
OK, the odd person is buying a cheapo netbook from Acer because of the $300 price point. That's not their primary computer.
Fact: The economy is rebounding. Fact: Apple is a strong company with tremendous growth potential, and not of the flash - in - the - pan RIM variety. It has out-performed the NASDAQ since the credit crisis began and it will continue to do so.
With stock at $120 a share today, I'd call it a buy. Of course, that's not financial advice.
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Rego said 3:40PM on 4-17-2009
Azazello said 12:06AM on 4-17-2009
Interesting but misleading. The numbers are representing traditional computing platforms with the more recent inclusion of netbooks. The problem, you see, is that netbooks can hardly do more that 'certain' smartphones. In fact as the Wall Street Journal was reporting in late Fall the surprising demographic anomaly was that folks in the lower income brackets were buying iPhones -- to roll in DSL/cable charges with their cellphone bills...
Where is their an iphone ATT DSL package?
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fred.stein said 4:21PM on 4-30-2009
Chart shows patterns: 1) healthy long-term increase in Market Share 2) An up-surge at Q3 (back to school?) and then an ebb in Q4.
The pattern shifted in the last quarter reported. Contributing factors for this downturn could be: No Netbook; Recession impact (fewer folks buying the Mac, a premium product); Apple loyalists buying iPhones and/or waiting for next big thing in Apple's notebook category.
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