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Apple poised to take over the (tech) world

Our friends at Cult of Mac commented on the possibility, floated on CNBC, that Apple will eventually overthrow Microsoft as the most valuable company in the technological world. If you think about it, Apple's stock was worth an unstable $25 dollars a share at this time 10 years ago -- today, it's worth $202 a share and shows no signs of decline. CNBC reports that Microsoft isn't really growing, but Apple continues to gain value and market share every day. From that, you could logically deduce that Apple will surpass Microsoft... but there are still a few points to make.

Apple has a long way to go before they're really ahead of Microsoft by most metrics. I suppose it's possible that the company's worth could surpass Microsoft within the 2 years that CNBC predicts, but as far as actual market share... I hope not. Here's why:

If Apple grows that quickly, we're going to see the effects of gravity bring them back down a bit. That kind of growth would be great for the brand but not necessarily the customer. We're already seeing record highs at the Genius Bars and not enough experienced staff to handle the demand. Calling AppleCare is usually a chore, not a pleasure.

Then again, any tech support call isn't fun, but long wait times make it even more frustrating. Using the example of Microsoft, getting too big too fast degrades your ability to offer quality service. It doesn't mean that their products are horrible, it means that you have to bring in more people to fill the gap -- people who aren't necessarily the most qualified to help. Will this sort of thing happen with Apple? I hope not. If their growth continues at its current rate, they better have a very good plan to avoid the Microsoft effect.

In my opinion, Apple does well as the underdog: they constantly have to adapt to the changing markets and make themselves more appealing than the competitor. If you look at Apple's top-dog aspects (iPod and iPhone), we begin to see things that aren't so awesome: the lack of a subscription service, the restrictive iPhone platform, not to mention the App Store approval process. In some ways, they get to the top of the mountain and then stop trying. Apple doesn't figure out where to go after they reach the summit, they simply find a different mountain and start climbing. They spent a couple years with the iPod, then a couple years with the iPhone... now we're gonna be seeing a couple years of the iTablet (or iSlate or iPad, you get the point).

If I'm not mistaken, it's really been a while since they've done anything innovative with the computer. Sure, the iTablet could bring innovation, but that's another mountain -- as were the iPod and iPhone. I'd love to see the company get back to the personal computer and do something that would change how we look at Apple. When I mention Apple at the moment, I hear the response, "Oh, they make the iPhone, right?" 4 years ago, that was the iPod. Soon enough, it will be a new piece of sexy hardware that Jonathan Ive designed.

Maybe two mountains will collide with the iTablet. Maybe it will really be the computer innovation that we've been missing. Maybe it will put Apple ahead of Microsoft in value, but let's hope that the Apple brand continues its reputation for great products, service and innovation.

Our friends at Cult of Mac commented on the possibility, floated on CNBC, that Apple will eventually overthrow Microsoft as the most...
 

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iSlate

The Apple tablet is going to make such a splash with the iSlate. The Nook and Kindle 2 are a waste of time. The iSlate is going to change the way we do things. iSlate.org

November 12 2009 at 12:55 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
afb

The concern over when Apple will pay more attention to Macs is misguided. Apple is building their next generation operating system right under our noses, in the iPhone and iPod touch. We'll see more of it in the tablet, I'm sure.
These systems embrace the computing-everywhere paradigm. Multiple, flexible devices, each serving a particular niche but able to perform a variety of tasks.
As Apple market-share grows, they will inevitably become a target for malware authors. This is why all applications are vetted by a trusted party before they can be installed and executed. It sounds terrible, but it's necessary, as the current epidemic among jailbroken iPhones indicates.

The iMac line has achieved perfection as far as Steve and Co are concerned. It can be thinner and lighter with better performance ( and maybe less chin ), but so long as we need a screen and a keyboard, the current iMac is the cleanest implementation possible.

Wanting them to "focus more" on their Mac line is akin to the long held request for a midsize tower. It's not going to happen, because the midsize tower is a freaking relic. So is sitting at a special device to do your "computing".

Mac OS X is a mature product. They are doing some great feature-adds under the hood, but given the assumptions of screen, keyboard, and mouse, the interface is about as good as it's going to get.

The next generation of "amazingly great" will have to go beyond these assumptions, namely in a new OS based on multi-touch and other more "perceptive" interface strategies. The iPhone OS is Apple's proving ground for these techniques.

So don't worry, a replacement for the Mac is in the works. This generational shift will take some time and Apple is being very strategic about only releasing products that are reasonably well-baked. I for one am really excited for a tablet that does not run OS X.

November 11 2009 at 4:39 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
lt_dan

" the lack of a subscription service"

I find it interesting that there are so many pundits writing in blogs, or mentioned in podcasts.

I have no interest in this and would consider it a bad choice to implement this servers. All subscription services work on the basis of you pay and use until you don't or can't pay anymore. Then everything is gone. When you purchase you have it and do not have to pay anymore.

If you pay a subscription you are charged whether you consume or not. In the cases where you do not consume you are losing money.

November 11 2009 at 1:21 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
1 reply to lt_dan's comment
Josh Carr

Just because you don't want it... doesn't mean it shouldn't happen. I obviously see that this isn't ideal for everyone, but I'd be willing to pay 15 bucks a month to have a whole service at my finger tips. That's really just one cd. I buy more than that in a month anyways.

With the subscription, I'd be able to try out full albums and decide if it's worth the money to buy it or just a couple tracks. Doesn't seem like that big of a stretch to me. Maybe you don't like music as much as some people...

November 11 2009 at 2:05 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
iSlate

The iSlate is going to change a lot. islate.org

November 11 2009 at 11:38 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
ben boonen

A minor point about the change in the value of Apple shares over 10 years -- They were $10 and are now $200 or so but there was a stock split in the middle. This means that each original $10 share is now valued at $400.

ben

November 10 2009 at 10:18 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Scott R

I'm not sure what AppleCare number you're calling, but I've had occasion to call them twice in the last 3 months: once to replace my first-gen iPhone (which had developed a balky ringer switch) and once to repair the MacBook Pro I use for work. In each case I talked to a pleasant, efficient, and above all else genuinely helpful rep that quickly identified what I needed and took care of the situation.

November 10 2009 at 5:01 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
JDT

"If I'm not mistaken, it's really been a while since they've done anything innovative with the computer. Sure, the iTablet could bring innovation, but that's another mountain -- as were the iPod and iPhone. I'd love to see the company get back to the personal computer and do something that would change how we look at Apple. When I mention Apple at the moment, I hear the response, "Oh, they make the iPhone, right?" 4 years ago, that was the iPod. Soon enough, it will be a new piece of sexy hardware that Jonathan Ive designed."
This is completely idiotic. Don't you guys have editors there? You are completely mistaken.
MacBook Air wasn't innovative? Unibody design wasn't innovative? Snow Leopard wasn't innovative? Grand Central was not innovative? And, although we have yet how good the Magic Mouse is, that's not innovative? And who the hell are you talking to that does not know about Apple's iPhone, iPod, or Macintosh computers, or iTunes for that matter? You really think people only know Apple because of the iPhone as a dismissive "oh yeah, I think I heard of it" rumor rather than because it was the game changing cell phone that drove customers to sit hours in line, news outlets to cover as much as they could about it, pundits to wrongly predict it's demise, and the entire cell phone industry to look like a deer staring at headlights and then for the next two years try to come up with a better alternative (so called iPhone killer) and fail miserably? What world are you living in?

"If you look at Apple's top-dog aspects (iPod and iPhone), we begin to see things that aren't so awesome: the lack of a subscription service, the restrictive iPhone platform, not to mention the App Store approval process. In some ways, they get to the top of the mountain and then stop trying. Apple doesn't figure out where to go after they reach the summit, they simply find a different mountain and start climbing. They spent a couple years with the iPod, then a couple years with the iPhone... now we're gonna be seeing a couple years of the iTablet (or iSlate or iPad, you get the point)."
No, I don't get the point. What the hell are you talking about? Apple had a winner with the iPod Mini only to discontinue it for the Nano because Apple was innovating. They climbed the mountain and then built a monastery. Then came the iPod Touch. Now what they did was grab another mountain and dump it on top of that one they had already reached summit and climbed this new mountain. Then the SDK came out with the AppStore. Boom, another huge mountain and another huge climb. Do you really think Apple has stood still with the iPods and iPhone? You really think there has been no competition? You really don't think they keep innovating in the iPhone front and iPod front? The only place I can think they stopped climbing was the Apple TV, and that's just because I know nothing about it. The reason Apple is number 1 in any market (be it market share or mind share) is because they keep innovating and innovating. They are a moving target.

You sound completely clueless, Josh, and quite misinformed as well. What are you expecting of Apple (or any company)? Miracles? Was revolutionizing the PC industry, Music industry, and now flipping the entire cell phone industry not enough? You want Apple to remain number 2 so it can compete better? Your post is ridiculous at best. Do some research and think before you write. And tell the person who edited your article to pay attention to content as well.

November 10 2009 at 3:57 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
3 replies to JDT's comment
Swimatm

It'll be intersting to see how Apple handles their growing popularity. As for the stock price: "what goes up must come down."

November 10 2009 at 3:52 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
fabriceh

The computing revolution you are waiting for has already happened: the iPhone.

The iPhone and its 100K applications is a general purpose computer that you carry with you at all time. Ask people who have one what has changed in their PC usage, and you will find a trend of people leaving their laptop on their desk as they can rely on their iPhone on the go.
As a mobile device, it fits in the mobile phone market, which is an order of magnitude larger than the PC market.
The iPhone dominates usage of the web on the go today, again by an order of magnitude.

This is a significant and disruptive technology change, on par with the PC, the consumerization of the internet, etc.

November 10 2009 at 3:40 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Christopher

Wow. Really? You all just lost SO much respect in my book. Does anyone at TUAW have any sort of a business background? So basically a company on the brink of collapse has grown faster that a company that was about as big as it could get... big shocker. Talk about reaching. I am a Mac user and Apple supporter but it kills me the lengths that you all go to grabbing onto anything you can find and scewing however necessary just to give yourselves your daily affirmation that you're so superior. I think some of you would literally kill yourselves if Apple ever went belly-up.

November 10 2009 at 3:23 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
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