The cracked crystal ball -- how the TUAW blogger predictions fared

Shortly before the Back to the Mac event on Wednesday, TUAW blogger Michael Grothaus compiled a list of predictions from the rest of the blogging staff. I thought it would be fun to go through the predictions and score our ability to foresee the future, giving each correct prediction a +1 score and every wrong prediction a -1 score. I gave the bloggers a zero if they suggested something, and then followed it up with a "not likely."

How well did our predictions match reality? Check out the scoring on the next page -- just click or tap "Read More" to see who the true fortune-tellers were for the Apple event.

Michael Grothaus: +1 for predicting Mac OS X 10.7 "Lion," -1 for saying it would ship in the Spring of 2011. +1 for predicting that there would be a MacBook Pro update (it wasn't announced, but there was a speed bump for CTO MacBook Pros), -1 for guessing there would be thinner MacBook Pros. +1 for current MacBook Air being retired, +1 for new 11.6" version, -1 for thinking it would have 3G wireless. +1 for iLife '11, -1 for thinking iWeb would get a redesign instead of being ignored completely. +1 for FaceTime for Mac, -1 for FaceTime for Windows, and +1 for predicting a client before the holidays. Total score: 2

Chris Rawson: +1 for OS X 10.7 "Lion," +1 for FaceTime on the Mac, +1 for thinking that it won't be out until after WWDC 2011. +1 for predicting the MacBook Pro processor speed bump, -1 for including the MacBook in his prediction. +1 for MacBook Air prediction, +1 for predicting some of the functionality of Mac OS X 10.7 (similarity to iOS), but -1 for thinking it would be a MacBook Air feature. Total Score: 4

Dave Caolo: +1 for predicting "nice demo of Mac OS 10.7," -1 for expecting "hundreds of changes," +1 for thinking that only seven or eight features would be demonstrated. +1 for FaceTime for Mac, +1 for smaller MacBook Air, +1 for predicting SSD as the only storage option. Total Score: 4

Mel Martin: +1 for FaceTime for Mac, +1 for "blending from iOS, perhaps in scrolling behavior." +1 for new MacBook Air, -1 for new MobileMe features. -1 for FaceTime update for 3G networks. Total Score: 1


Kelly Guimont: +1 for the MacBook Air, -1 for thinking it might be called something different. +1 for iLife, -1 for iWork, -1 for an iWeb replacement, +1 for FaceTime, -1 for FaceTime for Windows. +1 for 13" MacBook Air having an SD card slot, -1 for 11" MacBook Air having a SIM slot for 3G service. -1 for MacBook Air coming in iPod-style colors. +1 for "full multi-touch OS-wide" in 10.7, -1 for iApp emulation on Macs. +1 for Mac App Store, -1 for FaceTime integration with Skype. -1 for tiered MobileMe pricing. Total Score: -3 (Welcome to Kelly's House of Crackpot Theories)

Steve Sande: +1 for iLife '11, -1 for iWork '11. -1 for "modest improvements in all of the apps in iLife '11," -1 for $29 price tag. -1 for iLife for iOS, -1 for iWork.com, +1 for "online purchase and download,", +1 for Mac OS X Lion announcement, +1 for release "just after WWDC 2011," -1 for replacing Dashboard with iOS apps, +1 for Mac App Store. +1 for MacBook Air, -1 for availability of HD model, -1 for Xserve upgrade. Total Score: -2 (Ouch)

Michael Jones: +1 for FaceTime, -1 for having it integrated with iChat. +1 for iLife '11, -1 for iWork '11, -1 for release target in January, +1 for "possibly as early as end of November." -1 for "improved OTA syncing of documents with the iPad," +1 for 10.7, +1 for release "more likely near WWDC." +1 for "minor updates to other MacBook models," +1 for MacBook Air, -1 for use of "in-house chipsets that made it possible." FInally, a big -1 for "One more thing: a pony" Total Score: 1

Mike Schramm: +1 for 10.7 Lion, +1 for MacBook Air, -1 for iWork '11. +1 for FaceTime on OS X. -1 for AirPlay-style sharing between iOS and OS X, -1 for "don't think Apple is ready for Mac App Store," +1 for "some sort of exchange between iOS and OS X... connecting the two systems in the future." Total Score: 1

Michael Rose: +1 for MacBook Air, +1 for SSD storage, +1 for new form factor, +1 for two screen sizes, +1 for sub-$1100 price point. -1 for price drop on MacBook to $899. +1 for Mac OS X Lion, -1 for "fully functional iOS emulator," -1 for "New Finder," -1 for Apple acquiring a virtualization company. -1 for Xcode 4. Total Score: 1 (You should have quit while you were ahead, Mike)

Erica Sadun: -1 for iWork '11, -1 for "cloud and mobile device integration" in iWork '11. -1 for consumer tower / iMac appliance, +1 for OS X 10.7, -1 on two-year transition away from OS X. Total Score: -3


Victor Agreda: +1 for iLife '11, -1 for iWork '11, +1 for MacBook Air, +1 for OS X 10.7. -1 for cloud announcement, -1 for "hopeful MobileMe will get a functional upgrade), +1 for FaceTime, -1 for being part of iChat. -1 for "more cohesive mobile streaming strategy with cloud support,", -1 for iChat going cross-platform. Total Score: -2

Richard Gaywood: +1 for new MacBook Air, -1 for "iPad-like data plan," -1 for MobileMe upgrades, -1 for "deep OS X integration of better filesystem sync with tiered pricing," -1 for "iCal and Mail.app UI tweaks," +1 for FaceTime for Mac, -1 for thinking it would be in iChat, -1 for iWorks refresh, +1 for iLife refresh. Total Score: -3

David Winograd: +1 for "won't get a 10.7 release date," +1 for FaceTime, +1 for MacBook Air, +1 for iLife '11, -1 for iWork '11, +1 for "refresh of MacBook, MacBook Pro, or Mac Pro line... come up empty" (he's right for the MacBook and Mac Pro). Total Score: 4

So, congratulations to our top prognosticators, Chris Rawson, Dave Caolo, and David Winograd. Each of them did a better-than-average job of keeping their predictions from getting too wild or too detailed.