Apple is expected to claim the number one spot in global smartphone sales from 2025 through 2029, according to a new report from Counterpoint Research. The analysis, referenced in a Bloomberg briefing, highlights rising demand for the iPhone 17 lineup, a stronger upgrade cycle, and several major product launches expected between 2026 and 2027.
The company has not held the top position since 2011. For more than a decade, Samsung has led worldwide smartphone shipments. However, analysts now see Apple overtaking Samsung as early as next year and keeping its lead for several years.
iPhone 17 Demand Driving Sales Growth
The findings show iPhone shipments could rise by 10% in 2025, far outpacing Samsung’s expected 4.6% growth. This would give Apple an estimated 19.4% global market share by the end of the year.
Strong demand in the United States and China plays a major role in this projected growth. Many users in these markets purchased phones during the COVID-19 pandemic and are now ready to upgrade. Additionally, more than 358 million secondhand iPhones were sold between 2023 and mid-2025, creating a larger pool of customers who may choose to switch to newer models in the coming years.
Upcoming Models Expected to Boost Momentum
Apple’s product roadmap appears to support this long-term growth. According to the report, the company plans to introduce several significant models through 2027. These include:
- iPhone Fold (2026)
- iPhone 17e, a more budget-friendly option
- A 20th-anniversary iPhone (2027)
These releases are expected to sustain strong demand and help Apple maintain its lead through 2029.
Sales Lead vs. Installed Base
Although Apple may lead annual sales, the report notes that its installed base still trails Android significantly. Android devices hold more than 70% of global market share due to lower-cost options from many manufacturers. In contrast, Apple is the only company selling iOS devices, which limits its overall install base despite high sales numbers.
