Filed under: Analysis / Opinion, OS
Fuzzy Math = Windows Crashes 30 Billion Times a Year
John C. Dvorak has apparently used some fuzzy statistics and math to conclude that Windows crashes - worldwide - 30 billion times a year. Now usually Dvorak is on my black list for vocalizing such things as his wish for OSX to open up to any hardware, as well as his distaste for the amazing work of Creative Commons (apparently simplified copyrights make his brain think not good), but this is pretty funny. He uses a wide variety of statistics, a quote from Gates and some common sense (if the guy has any) to come up with his numbers, so he isn't just shooting in the dark.Either way, this obviously isn't really Apple news, but I figured the TUAW readers could use a nice chuckle on a lazy Sunday.
[Update: TUAW reader wrecklass pointed out that Dvorak's calculations (fuzzy as they may be) pertain to all iterations of Windows, not just XP. Thanks wrecklass!]
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
Wheels said 1:07PM on 8-28-2005
Could you please give a direct link to the 30 billion crashes column, I can't find it. I did read Dvorak's columns on Vista being the death-nell for Windows and Apple's potential for OSX's for taking over the x86 landscape. He might be a Johnny-come-lately to the Apple way of thinking, but I agree with what he says, mostly.
I think that somebody should come out with a custom XP start up screen that takes a cue from the McDonald's sign - "Billions and Billions crashed."
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David Chartier said 3:15PM on 11-02-2005
Wheels the direct link to the article is on the "Read" link at the bottom of the post. That's how most of the Weblogs Inc blogs work, fyi. Let me know if you're not seeing what I'm talking about.
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mike said 2:13PM on 8-28-2005
The statistic is nice...that means WindowsXP crashes just over 82 million times a day and while I typed this 19,000 crashes occured (20sec*951persecond).
Pitiful. Isn't there a consumer fraud division of the government? I cannot think of any product in the history of the Earth to have such a high failure rate.
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Wheels said 2:32PM on 8-28-2005
DuH! I get the daily "dunce" award, and one palm whack administered stoutly to the forehead!
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Aaron Yates said 2:38PM on 8-28-2005
To say the very least fuzzy math. Dvorak, the genius that he is, fudges the very statistic which is the basis for his entire calculation.
Saying that 1/20 Win XP boxes crashes twice daily does not mean that 2/20 Win XP boxes crash once daily, or even that the 5% encompasses all accounts of crashing.
Dvorak then goes on to say that Windows has a 33% market share, which even for install base is far from believable.
Of course you need to find a guy with an IQ of 61 to support Windows
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David Chartier said 3:15PM on 11-02-2005
Oh sure our government has a division to handle fraud, improper business practices and products. Who do you think lets Microsoft keep pumping out the crap they pass for software? ;)
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wrecklass said 3:32PM on 8-28-2005
Dvorak is definitely over reaching on some of those statistics. We have four Windows XP machines (three Home, and One Professional) here at our house. We haven't had one crash, well, ever. Statistically meaningless, but the point is I doubt anything like 5% crashing twice a day, unless those are simply badly configured machines.
BTW, why would you blacklist Dvorak for wanting to see OS X on Intel machines taking over the market? Isn't the whole goal to grow the Apple Market share? Or do most Mac owners prefer being less than 5% of the market?
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wrecklass said 3:34PM on 8-28-2005
Oh, you completely misread his article, or you were purposely inflamatory in your headline. Dvorak is saying 30 Billion Crashes per day on Windows, not just XP. He is including all versions of Windows.
Shame on your for being so fuzzy in your reporting ;)
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David Chartier said 3:15PM on 11-02-2005
Wrecklass, it's a far more involved conversation, but my belief boils down to: sure I'd like to see OSX get more popular. But I'm also a firm believer in Apple's philosophy of marrying hardware to the software that runs on it; this practice optimizes a Mac and makes sure the OS can run about as well as possible. After growing up building and modding PC's, I've decided that there's just too much hardware out there to streamline a system for. I've seen homegrowns, Dell's and Sony's far too often screw up or mistakenly rewrite hardware drivers, bringing the whole Windows house of cards tumbling down.
I'm all for OSX getting more popular, but imho it has to do it on a Mac.
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David Chartier said 3:15PM on 11-02-2005
Wrecklass I've also updated the article and given you a shout out for noticing my mistake.
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Thelma Jones said 4:46PM on 8-28-2005
We are still running one computer in our shop using Windows 3.1 - it doesn't crash and is used daily to run a slide presentation and has done for the last 5 years. I use windows XP and Windows 98 with no problems but my husband uses Windows ME and his does crash!
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Robert Pritchett said 8:23PM on 8-28-2005
Check the publish date:
http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,4149,1210067,00.asp
Oh, and XP doesn't crash, it reboots!
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Nate MC said 9:51PM on 8-28-2005
I would say that my XP box crashes signifigantly less than my 98 machine ever did. I have to force a reboot maybe once a month and it's usually because I screwed something up.
Now if you get bad drivers, that can really mess things up.
But I would say that XP crashes about 1000% less than 98 ever did. But I'm not joe average windows user either.
Users have no idea how much crappy applications and lousy memory management can affect their computers, there is a reason why a fresh install of XP runs so fast!
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Cyberwhore said 8:40AM on 8-29-2005
I am not chuckling as I have more trouble with my Mac at home than I do with my Windows machine at work running 2000 even though the Mac is about five years newer.
The Windows machine only has about 200Mb of disk space left, bugger all processing power and ram and I can't even get it to lock a program up. The last time it crashed completely ... can't even remember.
I have left it turned on full time for about a year now hoping that it will die a painful death and I will get an upgrade but no cigar yet.
I hope it doesn't start a fire in the office one day.
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