Filed under: Macworld, Analysis / Opinion, Cult of Mac, Surveys and Polls, iPhone
WSJ asks: Will the iPhone be a hit or a flop?
I thought online polls where strictly blog territory, but it seems that august publications like the Wall Street Journal are getting in on the poll fun. The WSJ has a poll up right now that asks, 'Will the iPhone be a hit like the iPod or a flop like the Newton?' At the right you see how it stands at 5am EST. 83% of people think Apple has a hit on its hands (my one vote is in that category) whilst 17% said, 'Didn't Steve kill the Newton when he returned to Apple? What's up with Newton 2.0?'What do you think? Will Apple score big with the iPhone or is it destined to become a footnote in Apple, Inc's history?
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
Eric said 6:25AM on 1-10-2007
The iPhone will be a big hit. This is just the 1.0 release, remember how the iPod has improved since it was a 1.0? I have been wanting call answerphone message selection for years! Who wants to listen to (and maybe deal with) 4 personal calls before getting to the work call you need to listen to? The iPhone will be a big hit. Developers will be scrambling to make cool apps for them, like Palm developers do for their platform. And Apple could even adopt the best ones and bundle them in. A whole new market for games, cool apps and very powerful business tools will emerge. It's going to be a gold rush. And the better ones available through iTunes. Nice.
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Cecil Sellers said 6:38AM on 1-10-2007
Yes, a big hit, despite the two huge negatives: Hopefully this will go beyond EDGE and Cingular. Neither of which I'm not ready to embrace. The plus is the phone is upgradeable. Wonder what that means. I will definately be a long wait and see on this one.
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mcarnvid said 7:20AM on 1-10-2007
Cecil, no despair. It is said in the keynote that they are following the GSM roadmap, and they will go beyond EDGE to 3G at the apropriate time. A big problem with cellphones i guess is the worldwide situation with mixed standards and technologies i guess. Apple has a love for simple product lines, so they probably want one machine that works everywhere. Can't comment on the whole cingular thing, since i'm from Europe and from what the comments I read about cellphones in the US of A, it's a really ugly business over there in comparison.
What they mean by upgradeable is probably that they will be developing more and more software to run on it, unlike the ipod which hasn't basically changed a lot since the beginning. And of course that they will be pushing out generation after generation. But in stead af having to buy a new one to have all the new features, some features will just be in software, so they'll be easily activated through software updates, just as with the last ipod update.
And yes, the wait is still long, but that has everything to do with their preference for secrecy, thus not being able to get it through FCC yet, which is an almost guaranteed leak i suppose. think of it: they need two months from now for FCC aproval, and they won't begin manufacturing until they get that approval. So approval in March means three more months for manufacturing and shipping for the thing to be available in July as they announced. It all quite makes sense.
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JT said 7:23AM on 1-10-2007
From an european point of view, I'm going to get a blackberry for 2007 and then wait and see how it goes. I hope they have a good supply plant, because selling 10 million $500 units in a half year won't be easy (or is it for the next 12 months... i don't know).
Another big question is the battery life when idle... major issue for me.
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mcarnvid said 7:35AM on 1-10-2007
If i heard it correctly, the 10 million unit mark (1% marketshare) is a goal set to be reached by the end of 2008. So it may be spread over a period of 18 months. Plenty of time to build these things.
Speaking of the supply plant, what about those rumors of that Asian company claiming to had a contract on 12 million iphones and already building them? If that is true, than it must be something else, because this hasn't been through FCC yet, or they just had the contract but haven't started manufacturing yet.
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Brian Baute said 8:49AM on 1-10-2007
I took the 10 million unit timeline to be end of 2008 as well. And I can't see them hitting that mark with a $499 price on the 4GB model, the questionable battery life, and the lack of 3G. So I'm predicting the 2nd gen iPhone will be announced at next year's MacWorld for immediate shipment with a much lower price point ($299 & $399?), 3G, longer battery life, and possibly another carrier in addition to Cingular. They'll hit 10 million units with that strategy.
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Gaia Live said 9:24AM on 1-10-2007
Just like the technojunkies we are, it's natural that we should feel the low, after the rush. Given Apple's ability to create hype from nothing, it's no surprise that after such a huge buildup, questions will be asked and opinions divided on whether or not the latest Apple product sensation can live up to it's own spin. However, in the context of daily life, it is clear that iPhone represents a major breakthrough, both in terms of it's implementation and it's physical form. It's success, (I believe it will be monstrously popular) will be built on Apple's understanding of the zeitgeist. Our shared vision of the future incorporates beauty, simplicity, genius. Apple embodies these values more and more precisely with each new product, and refines our shared future vision with each iteration. Given the minimum 6 month window of further development on a platform as rich and powerful as OS X, it is clear that the hype surrounding the actual public announcement of the iPhone will no doubt be superseded by subsequent info, mis-info, dis-info and pure secrecy. Slaves as we are to desire, we cannot help but start the inexorable process of incorporating first the idea of the iPhone, and then the reality into our own daily lives. As Lord Alec Broers mentioned in his Reith Lectures for the BBC, when questioned about the next revolution in technology, the flexible screen is the next real milestone. Apple has taken the single largest step toward that milestone by introducing a product which not only reinvents the phone, but also delivers an entirely new metaphor for interaction. Multi-touch is the framework around which our dreams of mobile computing are built, and even though we have had touch screens for some time, it takes a company like Apple to make good on the dreams. Next stop OLED !!!
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shirster said 9:44AM on 1-10-2007
It'll be a hit. I just wish that it arrives Hong Kong sooner and comes unlocked. I'm very willing to pay more for that :)
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Jeff said 10:51AM on 1-10-2007
Biggest problem is no removable battery. There are no phones without user replaceable batteries. Steve - please fix this before the product ships in June.
Having a dead cell phone battery and waiting for it to recharge in unacceptable. One major design flaw in an otherwise well thought out product.
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Pete White said 11:06AM on 1-10-2007
I think they will make their real money once the release a "nano" version to compete with the RAZRS and KRAZRS and all the other "stylish" phones out there.
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Scott H said 12:06PM on 1-10-2007
I think all the technology they've developed for it is great and innovative, but I don't think there are that many people who want all that stuff in one device, at the $500 price point, and it can't even hold much audio or video. I think Apple will release other versions of this technology later this year -- standalone video/audio iPod with more storage, a more basic phone -- that will be the real market successes.
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