Filed under: Analysis / Opinion, iPhone
Computerworld: iPhone to suffer Newton's fate
David Haskin of Computerworld is convinced that the iPhone will be the same disappointing failure that was the Newton:"Apple seems to be repeating the [Newton] cycle again with iPhone, developing what is undoubtedly an advanced product with a remarkable interface and overcharging for it...Besides overcharging for iPhone, Apple faces significant competition, something it didn't face in 1993 when it launched Newton."
Actually, David points out the crucial difference without even trying: People know what a mobile phone is. When the Newton was initially released, the concept of a "PDA" didn't really exist. For a large part of the population, the Newton seemed like some sort of Star Trek device that couldn't possibly have a place in their lives. It was foreign and seemed complicated.
On the contrary, everyone knows what a mobile phone is, those who don't own one have at least used one and I would bet that a great number of people would love to have a phone that does its job simply, beautifully and efficiently.
[Via MacDailyNews]
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
Ned said 1:09PM on 2-27-2007
Not to mention the momentum that the iPhone has from the iPod.. it couldn't possibly be equated to the Newton.
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Christopher L. Williams said 1:22PM on 2-27-2007
I would get used to the naysayers for a while. Even as the iPhone is becoming a resounding success, if it indeed does so, you will have the Paul Thurrots and Enderles of the world who will claim it as a failure (you know like when Bill Gates said that the mac is being taken over daily, despite the FACT that no such thing has ever happened outside of some laboratory), and that it is so because it isn't a "good devce for the business sector" (as if Apple makes its products just to suit the business world).
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Bob said 1:33PM on 2-27-2007
the dealbreaker for the iPhone will be the monthly package price from AT&T. the hardware will rock, but i don't have to pay $100 a month to use a Nano and my RAZR. now, i understand that the iPhone does more than those two things combined, but i think you get my point. make this puppy $60 a month, and BINGO, Apple and AT&T will destroy the competition.
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cs0875 said 1:39PM on 2-27-2007
I don't think the iPhone will go the same way as the Newton. You ask an average person what the iPhone is, and they will know, 14 years ago ask a person what a Newton was and they had no clue. So people will definately buy it. I don't think the price is out of line it is in the same ball park as the 6700 from Sprint or Verizon, or some of the newer HTC phones.
I don't think it will be such a smash as people think. First problem is it is on only Cingular, I personally have no problem with Cingular although I am not a customer, but not everyone can use Cingular, they might not get service. I live in the Washington DC and the Metro(subway) is covered by Verizon, and you can roam on it with Sprint, but Cingular is GSM and Verizon is CDMA so Cingualar will not work on the Metro. Around here many people pass over Cingular for that reason. Now that is a small percentage, but many people will face similar problems with not getting Cingular at home or work. I know people are going to say that every carrier has the same problem, and that is true no one service works everywhere, but the problem comes when only 1 carrier is offered. If you are unlucky enough for it not to work you are out of luck.
Also, the problem is Verizon and Sprint have 100 million customers combined, in 2007 half will have their contracts expire, but that leaves 50 million that have to wait until 2008. So it may get off to a slow start, nobody wants to pay an extra $200 to get out of their contract. Also there are people whose job pays for their phone and their phone may be Nextel or Verizon, most of those customers will choose the same company for their familys so they get the free in network calling even if they don't love the service.
And finally, the last paragraph says, "I would bet that a great number of people would love to have a phone that does its job simply, beautifully and efficiently" I have a $29.99 phone that does that, my little samsung make great phone calls, that is all I need it or want it to do, what incentive to I have to switch? If I want a portable video player $500 is a little steep, even if it is an iPod.
I want one, but for me it is too expensive and I am not out of Contract until October of '08. The other thing that bugs me is, if it is a touch screen won't fingerprints be a problem? I use the touch screen with no stylus to start my video playing and I have fingerprints all over the screen. It bugs me when I am too lazy to take the stylus out of my DS and I have fingerprints on it, it will bug me even more if I have to watch a show.
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Quix said 1:41PM on 2-27-2007
I'm getting tired of all this "overpriced" FUD about the iPhone. Guess how many cell phones have been launched at similar price points? Lots. And please show me some iPhone competitors with 4G or 8G of storage included in the price.
Nice try, Computerworld. You fail at assessing the future.
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ThePete said 1:42PM on 2-27-2007
The same way the Newton gave people something very costly that most of them didn't really need, so goes the iPhone (btw, PDAs are still not used by most people in the western world). I'm all for convergence, but for that much money, when I've already spent all of it on 3 other devices that all work just fine? Why should I spend $600 more and redundify the 3 devices I'm perfectly happy with? I seriously think the iPhone with it's current specs, will not do well. If they increased storage and/or lowered prices I'd feel differently.
Seriously--even for us gadget freaks, what's in it for us?
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IFWebmaster said 1:48PM on 2-27-2007
I really cannot wait until the iPhone is launched and Apple sells a million in the first year. All of these nay-sayers are going to have to eat their words and it will be quite fun to watch. All these things were said about all generations of the iPod too. And we all know how that went.
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sam said 1:54PM on 2-27-2007
The article cites the reasearch that has been going around that claims only 1% of people are willing to buy the iPhone. This does indeed make the iPhone look like a miserable failure.
Until you realize that 1% of the cell phone market is HUGE, and that 1% is the exact number that Jobs said was there target marketshare in his keynote.
Amazing that the independent research designed to take Apple down only confirmed exactly what they've already said.
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required said 2:35PM on 2-27-2007
The way I see it is that most people that would want this product (funny how this may be) want it without the phone. They want the iPod that they see in it and simply don't want the cellphone and its ugly contract. The other deal breaker is its miniscule memory allotment (and no slot for extending it).
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5cents said 3:00PM on 2-27-2007
As mentioned before, the iPhone isn't that expensive. In fact when you compare it with phones available elsewhere (say in Europe, Asia or the Middle East) it is downright cheap for a new, high tech phone. Just because you are used to getting the Razr for 50 (or is it free now) bucks doesn't make the iPhone expensive at 500-600 USD (or less if rumours are to be believed).
The first Sony-Ericcson I got with color screen, PDA capabilities, cam and video, mp3 and so on cost way more than 600 bucks.
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Steve said 3:15PM on 2-27-2007
>>>"Besides overcharging for iPhone, Apple faces significant competition, something it didn't face in 1993 when it launched Newton."
Something else Apple didn't face in 1993...an actual consumer market for the device they are selling.
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franko said 3:58PM on 2-27-2007
just a point here: the newton was well-enough known and understood at the time of its release that the simpsons made a reference to it. if it wasn't that understood or well-known, the most popular animated prime-time show on TV at the time wouldn't have wasted their time on a joke about it.
that being said, i think all the naysayers are in for (yet another) schooling by apple, just like they went through with the ipod when it came out. when i saw the first ipod, my mind blew wide open and i thought, "this thing is gonna revolutionize the way everyone listens to music -- i want one, and i want one NOW, and i don't care about the price."
i had the same experience watching steve demonstrate the iphone at macworld. this is really going to revolutionize the phone industry. "HELLO", indeed! bring it on, steve -- i love living in a time that has your products.
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Rod said 6:37PM on 2-27-2007
The iPod wasn't a bigger seller until the 3rd gen, when Apple opened it up to PCs, and replaced the firewire port with a USB port. While it was Mac only, it was an expensive gadget for mac fan boys. I know, I was on the frontline selling them when they first come out. $1000 AUS was a lot of money to spend on an iPod, especially for a few hundred more and you could buy a 350Mhz slot load iMac!
The thing that worries me about the iPhone is what happens after they are finally sold to the public. Remember how many first edition Nanos were returned with broken screens? How many times do you see people walking around with their phones in their back pockets. There are a lot of naysayers out there just waiting for Apple to slip up. BTW, nothing has been mentioned of syncing with PCs (bar iTunes). Nobody knows how the internet services on the iPhone will work outside of a wireless hotspot. There are a lot of unknowns about this product that keeps me from saying it will be a runaway success.
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Phuc Vu said 8:06PM on 2-27-2007
I really wish that Apple will build a CDMA version of the iPhone so us VW customers can use it. Just because Stregl dropped the ball doesn't mean I should be hurt. The iPhone will fit perfectly within my personal life... a phone, calendar, music player, slim, notepad and task(?)manager in 1. Plus... it's hot.
We should be able to buy any phone we want and use it on any carrier we want. Plain and simple. Come on Jobs! You know you want to break ANOTHER barrier and be controversial.
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ThePete said 8:57PM on 2-27-2007
I love all of the yaysayers who keep insisting that the iPhone is going to be such a huge success. Like you have any better of an idea than anyone else as to how well the iPhone will do. Jobs, himself, said he only wants 1% of the market, so he's not even aiming that high. Yes, 1% of the cell phone market is a huge number, but if that's all you want, your definition of success is pretty easy to hit. Changing the world with a product (as Jobs also seemed to expect) is much harder. Everyone seems to be acting like that's what the iPhone will do and I say that it's not going to happen.
And as for people who say that they paid for phones as expensive as the iPhone? You are likely the exceptions. Most people get huge discounts by signing up with a carrier at the time they purchase the phone or they get a discount for being with the carrier for so long. Hardly anyone I know pays full price for a phone and the $500-$600 price range for the iPhone IS the discounted/with service plan price.
But I don't care if the naysayers are right or wrong, I'm just offering my opinion. I hope the iPhone does change the world. All I know is that I'll be waiting for a cheaper, larger capacity iPhone or the 6g iPod that will come out by Christmas of 2007.
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Kendall Tawes said 11:42PM on 2-27-2007
Didn't everyone call the iPod overpriced when it came out too.
Yeah, what happened to that thing?
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mike said 2:33AM on 2-28-2007
Yeah, what happened to that thing?
--
David Haskin bought one.
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JeffDM said 11:40AM on 2-28-2007
I know several phones were introduced at that price and higher, but I never bought them. I have the sinking feeling that Apple will continue their pattern of being slower at reducing their prices than other phone makers, they already have a pattern of improving a device at the same price rather than allow the price to drop, and they were a little slow in offering lesser models as well.
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Gene Cowan said 12:54PM on 2-28-2007
The Newton was WAY ahead of its time -- there had never been anything like it. Now, of course, everyone knows what a PDA is. This is another example of Apple trying to create a new market (QuickTake anyone?) by bringing a high end device to the market before it is ready for it.
iPhone is an example of Apple's new strategy under Steve Jobs: wait until a market is mature, then build a better mousetrap. The iPhone is NOT ahead of its time... it's what we've been waiting for for years. That's why it will be successful: "Ahead of its time" means that we're not ready for it.
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Gene Cowan said 1:01PM on 2-28-2007
Franko said: "the newton was well-enough known and understood at the time of its release that the simpsons made a reference to it."
The Simpsons didn't make a reference to it when it was released (1993), that episode came more than a year later in 1994 (2F05 “Lisa on Ice”).
Pardon my pedantic nature. :)
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