When it comes to Ballmer, it's usually best just lay his quotes right out there. So here it goes. "There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance. It's a $500 subsidized item. They may make a lot of money. But if you actually take a look at the 1.3 billion phones that get sold, I'd prefer to have our software in 60 percent or 70 percent or 80 percent of them, than I would to have 2 percent or 3 percent, which is what Apple might get."
Of course, it's tempting to compare the iPhone to the iPod--also considered a boutique item when introduced--but the cell phone market is large and far better established than the digital media player was when the iPod debuted. Even if that market is crying out for innovation and new direction. I think the iPhone will easily outperform Ballmer's 2-3 percent over the next few years, but my crystal ball is hazy as to just how well it will do. What are your thoughts?
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 3)
4-30-2007 @ 4:09PM
joseph said...
Ballmer was wrong on one point. It's $500 and it's not subsidized. IIRC that leaked AT&T report last week said there were no subsidies on it. Ballmer's right though, they won't break even close to 10% of the market. I love the features of the iPhone, but the first model at least will get nowhere near 5-6%
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4-30-2007 @ 4:09PM
Joshua said...
Face it, he make a good point. The iPhone isn't going to play nice with Outlook so the business class isn't going to bite. At $500 that is a segment that is going to hurt to not have available...
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4-30-2007 @ 4:12PM
Johnny Thrash said...
Ballmer knocks everything that isn't put out by Microsoft. He has no credibility... nobody listens to him.
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4-30-2007 @ 4:13PM
Bear said...
this guy is too old to know what people 18-30 really want.. another article where he's sticking his foot in his mouth.. its hard to guage its performance when its not out in the real world.. its time for you to retire mr. ballmer.. bitter microsoft bashing at its finest..
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4-30-2007 @ 4:21PM
Mitch said...
I think it will do great despite what Microsoft says, it's not always about having the most products out there, its the quality and care you put into the products and support of them that makes people come back to Apple time and time again.
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4-30-2007 @ 4:26PM
Jonathan said...
Since when do they have 60-70% of the phones with Microsoft software? And 2-3% is actually a huge number of phones. That would be quite an achievement. I think that the iPhone might know a slow start, with a limited niche, but once they start introducing lower-cost phones, more like the iPod mini did, they could hit that sweet spot and take serious market share.
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4-30-2007 @ 4:27PM
Sparks said...
The iPhone is not a business device. Heck, it's not even a small-business device.
My PDA-phone lets me, among other things, connect to Google Talk and other networks to check in with people, and to use SSH to connect to a server to fix anything that's wrong, etc. I can install other software to further expand it.
The iPhone's interface is stunning -- I might even say 'revolutionary' in terms of usability, especially given the laughable 'usability' of other PDA-phones -- but as much as I really want one, from all that I've seen, it's not going to give me SSH access and instant messaging. For big business folks, it doesn't seem to have Blackberry style 'push' and Outlook integration, which is the main one they need.
And Apple's closed it off so that third party folks can't add those.
I think writing off the iPhone is dumb. The first generation iPod didn't conquer the portable music field, but they worked with it and now it's pretty much the undisputed champ in that particular market.
No, I don't think the first generation iPhone is going to conquer the world; Ballmer's probably right and it'll be a niche, fad thing for now. But do you want to make any bets against, say, the fourth-generation iPhone? I sure as heck don't.
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4-30-2007 @ 4:27PM
fraserdrew said...
The Phone market ISN'T well developed in my opinion.
Well, the smartphone market. Apple is kind of entering new unchartered teritory again. iPod entered the same thing; it had to beat of CD players and everyhting else.
Ok, point taken at this moment not everyone wants such an advanced mobile, but give it time. Tech prices always tumble, so just watch the iPhone grow as more and more people can afford it.
Just watch, iPhones will be all about
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4-30-2007 @ 4:28PM
Fred said...
Good point Steve! I mean let's not forget all that market share the Zune gathered (remember the Zune?). But more to the point, Microsoft is all about getting their crap out on every possible appliance in every possible setting, don't worry if it doesn't quite work. Apple is all about the "niche" market of people who like things that work right, and are easy to use. The iPod has become the Kleenex of the music player market, and it drives MS wild with envy.
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4-30-2007 @ 4:30PM
Anonymous said...
Anybody notice the resemblance to Dick Cheney, our beloved vice president? Both are such warm, cuddly characters.
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4-30-2007 @ 4:31PM
Haakon said...
At least he's right about something. Everyone would, when looking at their earnings, like to have a market share of 60, 70 or 80%. But neither Apple or MS will get there any time soon. It will take more than iPhone (1. gen.) and Wondows Mobile 6. But hopefully they'll keep trying, cause that's where good products come from.
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4-30-2007 @ 4:33PM
Enda Crowley said...
Who cares?
I'm buying one anyways :P
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4-30-2007 @ 4:33PM
Thayne Miller said...
The point I find the most funny is that even though Ballmer is bashing apple, he is actually giving the iPhone a higher percentage of prospective sales (about 2-3 times higher) than Steve Jobs did when the iPhone was announced!! Recall Steve Jobs claimed their goal was 1% market share? Looks like Ballmer has more faith in the iPhone than Apple as he estimates a 2-3% market share. hehehe.
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4-30-2007 @ 4:37PM
Michael said...
That could be true if you look at the iPhone as a device and not as a franchise. This is just the first of many. And I can't recall almost any device that has had the hype the iPhone has MONTHS before it came out.
1 percent here... 2 percent there...eventually it adds up to an 80+% marketshare.
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4-30-2007 @ 4:37PM
Sparks said...
Jonathan, I think he means 70-80% of business PDA/phone hybrids. And, he's right; Symbian and Palm are both distant seconds in the PDA-phone or Smartphone market these days. The various rebranded HTC devices, HP iPaq phones, and so on are the dominant PDA-phone hybrids and they all run Windows Mobile. Even Palm themselves have started releasing devices running Windows Mobile -- look up the Palm Treo 700w, or the Treo 750.
Windows Mobile is a really painful system to use in many ways, but it is the dominant platform for mobile devices.
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4-30-2007 @ 4:39PM
Richard said...
I have a Windows Mobile device and if Mr. Ballmmmaer is proud of their achievements in this area it's probably because he doesn't use one himself. I don't know how anyone can use a WM device for business (ever tried to get a three-way-call going? or ever had calls going to the voicemail because your pressed the Answer key?).
For now the only viable solution is the Blackberry OS. Even Symbian is a waste of time.
I, for one, cannot wait to smash my WM crap phone against the wall. Windows is done for.
For the ones saying it doesn't play nice with Outlook, wake up... Windows and its suite of apps are on the exit. I haven't used Outlook in 3 years. Why would I?
None of this is surprising- what is he going to say? We suck. Go buy an iPhone.
Fucking retards.
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4-30-2007 @ 4:39PM
ap said...
According to this, wm os only has 5.6% market share of all smart phones...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smartphone#Operating_systems
Yeah, Steve would "prefer 60 percent or 70 percent or 80 percent of them" too, but I guess he will settle with the 2-3% you predicted. Not bad just a few percentage point below your software
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4-30-2007 @ 4:39PM
clifyt said...
Why does everyone say this isn't going to play nice with Outlook???
I know I can get my dates and address book automatically sync'd with my iPod and phone. I have to use Microsoft's software to do so, but it does. Apple's mail app will even download the messages from any Exchange server that isn't completely locked down (and even then, I can get this stuff through OWA). It is a two step process (not that I see it as a user other than two apps go bouncing int the dock), but it isn't using any software except Mail.App, Entourage, and Sync.
Will it download new messages straight from Outlook? Probably not...but cripes, its not like its that hard to set up a forwarding rule if you need to be alerted (i.e., either send it to a SMS gateway for texting, or an account that the iPhone will be able to read while mobile).
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4-30-2007 @ 4:43PM
Marc Mitchell said...
ive sat here for ten minz writing out abuse & keep deleting it coz its just not harsh enough. but there are no words i can ultimately use to describe how much i cant stand this dude.. if Gates is the asshole then Ballmer is the brown turtle head popping out his ring. Hes the gimps gimp.. the flying monkey from wizard of oz.... he is just wrong .. every word , every move, every magic dance.
id put my foot in a blender b4 i bought a microsoft ( "spit") product... so go play with vista ( looks like osx from 3 years ago ) & play with your xbox (lets try for the ps2 market) & think up something original for once in your life.. shiiiit i bet he even phoned bill to see what jumper to wear today.. get Ballmer of this wonderful site or for god sake turn the picture in to a "Dart game".
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4-30-2007 @ 4:55PM
Johnny Thrash said...
If it weren't for Bill Gates, Steve Ballmer would be a user car salesman in Detroit.
Microsoft is all about "Quantity over Quality" while Apple believe in "Quality over Quantity."
I don't know how the iPhone will do, but I'm buying mine as soon as they come out. It HAS to be better than this stupid RAZR.
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