Ballmer on iPhone

Its crazy to think, despite who is saying it, that the iPhone will grab more than 3-4% of the cell phone market.1) It's tied to a crappy service provider. You have to have cingular(or The New AT&T and they are so fond of calling themselves these days) to even get an iPhone in the US. This fact alone is going to limit their numbers. 2) It's $500. The cheapest I've seen it speculated at is $300 with a 2 year contract. Even at $300 though its still more expensive than any of it's competition in the smartphone market. You can get a new Treo for $200 with the same contract from Cingular. 3) Very few people in the country care about their phone being anything other than a phone. This is a sad statement but it's true. This isn't Europe or Asia where people have been using their cell phones as PDAs and portable music players for years. Its still a big deal for a phone to have a camera in it for most people.

This all being said, as someone else pointed out, 2-3% of the cell phone market in the US is still a lot of phones, and it's nothing to be ashamed of. Unless apple starts giving them away and/or opening the phone up to more than one carrier I can't imagine the numbers getting out of the single digits. Like the iPod was when it debuted, the iPhone is ahead of its time and its going to take a while for the market to catch up. That gives apple time to do things to make the phone more accessible to more people (like lower the price). The iPod wasn't an over night success and the iPhone won't be either. But to all you die hard apple nuts out there that have pre-ordered your first gen iPhones already, enjoy cingular, because they suck. :-D

Apple targeted the iPhone at 1% of the market. I am sure it will outperform this target.
The fact Ballmer looks worried confirms my thought.

Lorenzo
www.myspace.com/hologr4music

This from the same company that brought us the incredibly successful Zune. I wonder what Ballmer will be saying a year from now, when the iPhone has almost a year of sales figures. Why is this idiot head of Microsoft? Can't they find someone with at least a hope of a clue and a smidgen of charisma?

I'm sure Jobs said he would be happy with 1% of the market ...

Apple aren't interested in how many phones they can get their software on, its about how many iPhones they can sell. The actual market that they are selling to here is different. Apple are competing with the phone manufacturers and selling to the consumers. Microsoft are selling to the phone manufacturers, on features that the manufacturers can sell to the consumers.

@ Johnny Thrash

You are so right. It is a quality / quantity issue. Unfortunately, most people in this country are quantity driven (Just take a look at how many people McDonalds serves yearly)
If the howling, dancing monkey was not a poker buddy of Gate's in college he would be selling used cars. He is an out of touch ass through & through. Like the big stupid loudmouth jock types that make it through high school only because they are needed on the football team, but are in actuality dumb as a stump & should still be in the 7th grade.
You know who else has this similar trait? George W. Bush. Had he not been born into a wealthy, powerful family he'd be managing a Wal Mart.
Poorly.
And yet, in reality - two very powerful men who make decisions that affect the world..
Sad, sad place we live in.

When Steve introduced the iPhone at Macworld, he said their goal for 2008 was 1% market share. Steve has also compared Apple's computer market share to BMW and Mercedes in the past, and said, What's wrong with being BMW or Mercedes? Ballmer doesn't get it. Apple is a leader and an innovator. Windows Mobile get your copiers ready.

Hey Mr Bullmer, how's your Zune market share?

Remember we're talking about one single phone here. How many phones are on the market now? A hundred? More? Sony, Samsung, Sanyo, Motorolla, Nokia, V-Tech, Audiofox, LG, etc. each make several phones competing at different price points and feature sets.

Apple will be selling one phone at the high end of both price and feature.

To compare the (currently speculative) market share of that phone to the entire phone market is pointless. Might as well look at Schwinn's share of the wheeled vehicle market.

Balmer is an ass.

ok guys. Let me tell you how this is gonna go... very very simple:

Apple releases the iPhone. Demand is soaring. Apple is having a hard time keeping up... you will eventually have to wait for weeks to get an iphone...
within 3 months apple has sold 10 million iPhones

that's how it's gonna go down....