On doubting the iPhone and making the wrong comparisons

I think the iPhone will be successful. It may take 2 or 3 iterations, but it will be successful. Why? Because NOBODY loves their phone. NOBODY. Everyone tolerates their phone. They may be happy with the features. But as for hardware+interface, they all pretty much suck. This is the area in which Apple excels and they will produce a better user experience. *

* Caveat: If the virtual keyboard doesn't suck

The biggest potential problem I see with the iPhone is the fact of 5 years exculsivity with at&t. at&t has about 28% of the cell phone market in the US, give or take. There are reasons why this is the case. Some people don't get good service, or had bad customer experience. If you credit is less than stellar I have seen deposits of $750 compared to the same customer with $150 from Sprint or $100 from T-Mobile. Also I live outside Washington DC and most of the government employees including Dept. of Defense, Dept. of Justice, US Military use Verizon. So many people choose Verizon for their family phones to save money (free in network calling). Also GSM is not as popular here in DC since the subway system is only CDMA so many people get Sprint or Verizon so they can talk while on the subway. These potential customers may not choose to switch because as cool as the iPhone is it isn't cost effective or convenient. What good is an iPhone if you can't use it to get your work done on the way to work? What if your work phone is Verizon will you spend an extra 30 bucks a month to get a higher rate plan with at&t so your family can call your work phone so your kid or wife can have an iPhone? That is $360 a year more assuming you don't have an early termination fee.

It all comes down to whether out of necessity, convience or cost some people will not switch because of at&t. Yes somepeople will pay thousands of dollars and stand outside on their roofs to use an iPhone but those aren't the people that will make or break this product. While I completely understand a exclusivity agreement, I think 5 years will keep some people from getting one and if give the rest of the industry time to catch up. Even if the iPhone is head and shoulder above everything else. All it takes is one product or innovation to change all that and 5 years is a long time to wait for that not to happen.

HSPDA = 3G EDGE

Just to stay on the original topic of people who know their software inside and out being able to meld it with their hardware...

Palm did buy Handspring in order to produce the Treo; however, who was Handspring?

Handspring was founded by the founders of Palm who left after they became disillusioned after they were purchased by US Robotics in 1995 which was subsequently consumed by 3Com in 1997. Suffice it to say that neither USR nor 3Com had any idea what to do with Palm. Which is why Handspring was started by the Palm founders in 1998. And which is why 3Com eventually spun Palm back out as an independent company in 2000. Handspring and Palm then remerged in 2003.

Anyway...point being...Handspring and Palm were relentlessly focused on delivering an integrated device (although they sadly lost focus for awhile and went wondering in the wilderness with all those corporate merger shenanigans).

reinharden

For a totally different take on this subject read http://speculational.blogspot.com/2007/06/on-doubting-iphone-and-making-wrong.html

"As a long time ATT customer who recently switched to Cingular and also a Verizon user as well I can say that the weakest link will be Cingulars wireless network"

Around here Cingular's the one to beat. Verizon's tagline should read: "It's the NOTwork"...

Palm and Windows Mobile compete for the business smartphone market while Danger’s Sidekick and the iPhone will compete for the personal smartphone market. Two different demographics with different needs. Though, I think the Sidekick appeals more to the tween, teen and early 20s demographics, while the iPhone will appeal more to the 20- and 30-year olds.

To be honest I think one of the most important developments has been overlooked by most people, and that's something Steve Jobs said right back in his iPhone speech:

"200 million people around the world already know how to synchronise their iTunes with their iPod, so they already know how to sync their iPhone"

Well something along those lines...

I'm sure I'm not the only person who has been the victim of the truly terrible mobile phone sync software that the companies have given us to backup and sync our phones. Even now the brand new Nokia software often has problems recognizing some of the new phones reliably, and the 2 year old Motorola software for my A1000 has now reached the point where just plugging in the cable and synching causes my phone to go into a reboot death spiral!

If Apple are going to have all the phone sync functions within iTunes, as with the iPod, I think this is going to be huge... Apple are great at taking a technology that has never really worked well before, and making it Apple Simple and just work... So there is a very good chance they will sort this area out once and for all, and suddenly people will realise there is another way of writing mobile phone sync software.


-funkyberry-

john; Dual battery is something that was a rumor promoted by the drunken Digg guy, there has been no confirmation that the iPhone has a dual-battery system.

Neil Christie; I don't think your complaints are a problem. That screen is an aspect ratio found on some PDAs, though I don't know why it is that way. I don't think that the screen is anything special, it may be the same screen that's on the Palm T|X, it is exactly the same resolution as my Tapwave as well.

I've seen 1GB & 2GB devices with video playback, 4GB and 8GB is certainly a lot better.