Filed under: Analysis / Opinion, Hardware, Software, iPhone
On doubting the iPhone and making the wrong comparisons
John Gruber already pointed out some flaws of The Register's Lance Davis who doubts the iPhone, but I have an even bigger problem with the line of thinking Davis used in his analysis. He writes: Remember, the mobile industry is one where some of the biggest companies in the world have tried and failed: Siemens, Philips, Fujitsu. None of them have creditable [sic] market shares. Even IBM put a toe in the water in the late nineties and then stayed away.Obviously, no one can truly say one thing or another about the iPhone until we all get our hands on one and the market decides whether the device sinks or swims. Until then, everyone is free to say what they want as long as we all take it with a grain of salt. The qualm I have with Davis' analogy is that the manufacturers he cites - Siemens, Philips and Fujitsu - are using Microsoft's Windows Mobile platform on their smartphones. Setting aside the debate about Microsoft's ability to write software for a moment, the more significant factor here is that these manufacturers are using someone else's software on their products, which means they're susceptible to all the circumstances that come with pairing one's hardware with software they have an inarguable lack of knowledge and experience with.
This problem and the limitations it causes have been exhibited often enough in the recent history of PDAs and smartphones that Davis should really know better. It could be argued that Palm's original PDAs never really took off for any number of unrelated reasons, but look at who smartphones are designed for and how they have generally fared: Windows Mobile has never really caught on with any respectable portion of consumers largely because it's designed for business, and the phones suffer from not being able to reach that true nirvana highly specialized devices require: the melding of software and hardware that is designed all under one figurative roof. Palm, however, knocked one out of the business park with the original Treo series because they used the right approach with perfect timing: they designed a PDA and communication device in house, using their own OS and hardware. Same with the recent and rabid success of the BlackBerry: they're highly specialized devices whose software and hardware are designed by one company on a mission to solve many of today's glaring problems with true communication devices. Are you sensing a pattern yet? These devices are designed for businesses, by businesses, while the iPhone is aimed in an almost entirely different direction: it's build by a company whose bread and butter has obviously become products for the mass consumer.
Again, I think pundits big and small can only say so much one way or the other about the iPhone until we can all sign that two year contract on the dotted line and see how the phone fares in the market. That said, I still believe a call for perspective and an understanding of Apple's approach is warranted, because what Apple is attempting with the iPhone has never been done before. Plenty of mobile phone companies like Motorola, Nokia and SonyEricsson have cobbled together various, convoluted versions of their phone OS both to slap on their own devices and, in some cases, sell to other manufacturers. But a true software and OS developer the size of Apple - a company known for their attention to the software experience - has never approached the mobile phone industry with a phone OS and device combo that were forged from the same fire. The iPhone could easily sink or swim depending on any number of factors, but you really can't make an assessment by comparing Apple's approach to the market because no one has approached the market this way before.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
yatesy said 4:38PM on 6-04-2007
actually, palm bought out handspring, who made the visor and, i think, the original treo, and incorporated it into what they were working on. i had a visor deluxe at one point and it was really cool.
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Eleventeen said 4:41PM on 6-04-2007
Andy Inahtko (on Macbreak Weekly) thinks that the iPhone will be successful for reasons which you kind of mention. They designed both the hardware and the software, and just from the concept of making it do the things a standard smartphone does now, only better, is what will make it shine from the rest of the crowd. Ignore the Mac fans who bill pick this up on day 1, (I unabashedly count myself there,) to go truly mainstream, this is going to have to convince the average smartphone owner now that the way they are doing things now is just overly complicated or broken.
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Neil Christie said 4:50PM on 6-04-2007
Sorry, but please get off the fanboy box for once. Just because it's Apple doesn't mean it's automatically going to be a good product. We've all seen that iPhone is trying to be a consumer device and we've all seen it's doing it badly.
Not enough storage for a video playback device along with a nonstandard aspect ratio makes this one of the WORST video playing devices around.
I don't know why people go all gooey over this, it's only a touchscreen.
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Waldorf said 4:58PM on 6-04-2007
> I don't know why people go all gooey over this, it's only a touchscreen.
Neil Christie: I think that is exactly the reason why ;)
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Waldorf said 5:01PM on 6-04-2007
> I don't know why people go all gooey over this, it's only a touchscreen.
I think thats exactly why ;)
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Bart Lee said 5:04PM on 6-04-2007
Yes, this Apple-related blog is certainly no place for a positive Apple analysis. *Rolls eyes*
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Jeremy W said 5:04PM on 6-04-2007
I have used several WM5 devices with many of the same features (except the good touch screen) of the Iphone. The devices were all uniformly ungainly, clunky and stupidly organized. To turn off a program in WM, you need to drill down through several menues and search it out and then make multiple confirmations.
The skunkworkers at MS produced another stinko set of commands that are far too complicated and too filled with meaningless complications (called within MS: "features"). A feature is anything that is utterly superfluous, that accomplishes almost nothing, that complicates your useage but which the committee of 87 who pass review on software at MS think is cool and can make work for the tech services department so they can justify their jobs.
MS has never produced a single device that is fun, easy and does not require a 24/7/365 tech services department. Everything MS does is vastly too complicated, unreliable and stupidly organized.
If MS designed an airplane, it would have two tails. (The extra one would be an added feature!)
Instead of searching out the 203 most effective ways to accomplish something, MS search out 75 ways to accomplish something of which 71 are plain silly, one assists in virus download and three make some sense. It is the job of the customer to search out those three.
What a heap of tumerous flesh is MS!
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stainboy said 5:21PM on 6-04-2007
yatesy: you are correct, Palm did get the Treo by acquiring Handspring. one of the few good moves they made in their history.
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ukdesi said 5:31PM on 6-04-2007
i was initially excited about the whole iphone thing - but after reading about it almost everywhere - im slowly getting quite tired of it !
and its not even out yet !!
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franko said 5:43PM on 6-04-2007
the one thing that gives me complete faith in a brand-new technology, 1.0 version product is this:
apple has worked on this product for YEARS, and they are completely conscious of the risks they are taking -- how could they not be? they would not release this phone, or would even have *announced* it, if they weren't sure it was going to fly. they would not release something that would give them cause to fall on their face while the whole world is watching.
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Jose said 5:44PM on 6-04-2007
I love the philosophy that continues to be printed in the media... "Company A, B, & C, tried and failed, so why will Apple be any different. Of Course!! Why should anyone try anything!! Obviously if Siemens can't make a "must have" cell phone, then no one can. After all Siemens can make anything from hearing aids to a microwave oven... All praise the mighty Siemens.
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Drew Grgich said 5:43PM on 6-04-2007
I can dig those who say wait and see. I can even buy those who claim that the device will be a flop before examining it in person.
For me, I'm just excited at the scale of the launch and at how cool the device seems to be. I have used tons of other smartphones and none of them work as easily as the iPhone appears to.
I think it is going to come down to:
a. Battery life - if this phone doesn't last all day (10 hours) on standby, it'll sink. If it doesn't last at least 4-5 hours watching a movie or two, it'll sink.
b. Cingula. . . . I mean, AT&T - I was in Dallas recently and rarely lacked five bars of coverage. Trouble is, I live in Phoenix where two-three bars of coverage and lots of "Huh? What was that?" is the norm when using my Samsung D807 or Motorola C139. I've also heard the horror stories of those who needed help and wondered into the Jungle of the Customer Service Queue.
Regardless, I will be in line on whatever day is necessary to purchase or pre-order my phone. I am a true believer and think that this will be done right. I just hope the calendar feature works well and synchs with my iCal. :)
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Dave Chartier said 5:44PM on 6-04-2007
I'd like to point out that I haven't really placed any kind of actual analysis on Apple or the iPhone. I haven't said whether the iPhone will be the kind of all there is to come or if it's going to stink worse than week-old roadkill.
All I'm doing with my post is making a call for the proper perspective when making any kind of analysis about Apple or how well an as-yet unreleased product might perform. I never even mentioned so much as a word on whether I actually want or will buy one.
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PixelMix said 5:45PM on 6-04-2007
What is wrong with 'creditable'? Sure, credible is more common, but 'creditable' is equally correct. No need for the 'sic' in your quote.
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Hawthorne said 5:48PM on 6-04-2007
"We've all seen that iPhone is trying to be a consumer device and we've all seen it's doing it badly."
Ummn, we have? What sales figures are you quoting? Is this based on hands-on experience, or is Edgar Caycee your tech analyst?
Me, I think 1 million+ interested parties on AT+T's mailing list hints that it might not be the disaster you're hoping for.
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d3f3nd3r said 5:50PM on 6-04-2007
It's a phone, the only thing that will matter in the end is how the phone and subsequent service is for the majority of users. As a long time ATT customer who recently switched to Cingular and also a Verizon user as well I can say that the weakest link will be Cingulars wireless network. It is not as good, plain and simple. No uber phone will fix that, however good it may be.
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grover said 5:31AM on 6-05-2007
"Not enough storage for a video playback device along with a nonstandard aspect ratio makes this one of the WORST video playing devices around."
*giggle*
It's so cute when AV geeks think anyone else cares about that kind of thing.
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Jon H said 5:56PM on 6-04-2007
I'll second that there's nothing wrong with 'creditable'.
It basically means 'notable'. Not quite the same as 'credible' but entirely valid.
Come on, aren't you on a Mac? Is it too much work to right click on the word and bring up a definition?
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Hawthorne said 5:57PM on 6-04-2007
Has anyone gone back and compared how big the total volume of MP3 players sold was pre-iPod, and how many have sold post-iPod?
Maybe, just maybe, a market size isn't fixed in stone. And maybe, just maybe, when a product comes out that expands the potential market size, everyone who's selling in that space ends up a winner.
I owned an mp3 player in the pre-iPod days, and I rarely used it because adding new music was slow and cumbersome, storage capacity was small and the software with it just *blew*.
Just as MP3 players didn't sell well before the iPod showed everyone else how it's supposed to be done, the iPhone is poised to shakeup the smartphone market. I've had a smartphone for 3 years now (and a collection of Treos and Palms before that), and the iPhone comes closest to the perfect "all-in-one" device that I've ever seen.
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Buck Jones III said 6:03PM on 6-04-2007
Just release it already, review it - 3 outta 5 and move on to the next BIG gadget. I'm glad I'm not the only one sick of this iphone news everywhere. It's gonna be sick when people crash trying to answer a call...
Good luck with your ipod/phone/internets/arrearage device in one!
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