Why the iPhone Will Fail

The bias of the site set up for apple fans remains infinite. It is like a political debate where no argument will ever convince the other party. A couple of things:

Waterworld broken even or posted a slight profit: Does that mean Apple would be ok with barely breaking even after a few years? Investors would be ok, maybe with a startup but not with Apple who's stock has more than doubled in the last year on all the hype.

The technology of the iPhone is pretty cool but is it revoluntionary or incremental? All new technology has adoption curves which take time. The cell phone was one of them beginning in 80s. There are 233 million US cell phone users (about 75% penetration) about 85-90% with contracts that typically cost $200 to break. The average cell phone price in the US is $130 (wholesale) and $50 to the consumer. The iphone is going to be around 10x the average price. Even the Motorola Razr which was thought to be cool and marketed as luxury did not get a foothold until its price dropped dramatically from $350-$400 to less than $150 thanks to carrier subsidies. I'm glad Apple set a goal of 1% market share by 2008 but this equals 25 million devices. That is still a high mark.

Keep in mind the average consumer, not everybody who is on this site, and how much they use their phone, ipod, and internet. Broadband access is still growing and not at its peak. The ipod began to sell rapidly but how many average consumers are going to say "i just paid $150 for a nano, $150 for a razr, have a 2 year contract at $55 per month (lots of talking minutes) and i love the iphone so lets throw away all the money i invested on technology that works for me to replace it with another $500-$600 plus 2 year contract (additional cost of breaking my contract if i'm not with att: which is 75% of the country) and fewer minutes for a higher monthly rate."

The hype and status thing is there to push awareness of the device but will it drive sales. I played with the device yesterday and today. I would review it positively but that doesn't mean it survives or becomes the leader like the ipod. There a ton of great products that haven't made it: betamax for sony, tivo barely breathing finally moving up after slashing prices and nearly a decade. Even Apple for all its greatness still owns less than 5% market share in computers in the US and the world.

PRICE MATTERS especially in a world with gas prices increasing leading to higher costs across the board. A luxury phone is cool but is the appetite sufficient in terms of cost? It all depends on what kind of goals you have set for the device. Do people thing it will be like the iPod and lead or will it be more like Macs and be a niche item?

I think iPhone will fail due to the economic factor: Not everybody can afford $600+ price line. It will cost more if adding more services. All Americans will face tough living environment in the next several years: Unaffordable housing/renting price from high RE, expensive energy/healthcare/retirement, reduced purchase power from weak dollar, lower wages from offshore outsourcing, higher tax from wars… All of them cannot be solved easily.

get with the times man tactile feedback is in the past...its all about touchscreens now. if he's too lazy to lift his eyes to behold the beauty that is the iphone interface and too lazy to flick his finger this way and that way to get directions and music and movies and e-mail and voicemail all at the same time then he has bigger issue!

To me, the biggest flaw is the fact that the iPhone will suck in the car.

With my RAZR, I can use voice dial and/or speed dial along with my headset to safely make and receive calls while driving. The voicedial lets me tap a button, say a name, and I'm off. Speed dial just takes a quick glance at the phone. With the iPhone, the only time I'll be able to safely make a call is when I'm at a stop-light, or deadlocked in traffic.

I'm still going to buy the HELL out of that phone, though. I lived without voice dial till 2006, I guess I can live without it again.

I remember when the pundits and naysayers were revealing that very few people would use automatic tellers because they would be so complicated! And no one would use CDs because they didn't have the audio clarity of "wax" phono albums, and who would use DVDs because all DVDs are is minature Laser Disks - and "who in hell needs a phone to travel around with them, I got my phone in my car that's enough". I could go on.

Seriously - we are a technologically oriented planet - now. At least those of us who are reading these blogs! :{ There are people who are struggling to just remain alive BUT we have a tendency to conviently forget about them - most especially when we are mere hours from the launch of a revolutionary device that will change life as we know it.

Will it change the life of the men, women and children in Dufar? Nope. BUT George Clooney and the Oceans 13 gang are!

Sorry for the aside there. Just a perspective break.

Here in Australia - it wil be 6:30 PM Friday while the lines are growing across the pond... no squirt ofr us!!! :(

Waterworld reference...

According to the IMDB, although it is considered to be a bomb, it actually grossed $255 million from a $175 million budget. And that's before DVD sales etc.

It didn't make as much has the increasingly harried producers wanted, but still turned a profit.

I also enjoyed Waterworld, but never saw Ishtar. I had heard Waterworld sucked, but I still enjoyed the movie. It was funny and had decent action in it. However, I didn't pay to see it so I couldn't complain I threw away my money to watch it.

I can only say that if Mr. Platt never used the iPhone then he's an asshat for judging it's failure probability.
Only week plus users should have anything credible to say about how good or bad the iPhone is.

@Billy K
wait... by they are locked to AT&T for 5 years you mean only after 5 years will someone be able to use the iphone on, say, Verizon?????

If Apple had half a brain, they would capitalize on ET. Most of their target demographics are the 18-30 crowd. It’s probably why they’re using YouTube in their advertising. But most young kids don’t have 600 dollars to buy a phone. Now everybody over 35 knows the phase “ET phone home” I couldn’t think of a better way to advertise a new high-tech phone to a generation of consumers with money. Just imagine, a TV commercial, which ends with good old ET calling home on a new Iphone. I tried e-mailing Apple, calling customer service. Marketing etc. etc. Nothing. No answer back. When I do get through to someone, I feel like a real nutcase trying to explain my ideal. Am done trying. But, I do remember when the Mars M&M Company turned down the offer to have ET eat M&M’s. After ET was seen eating Reese’s pieces every kid in America wanted them. So will the iphone fail, not if Apple gets my message and gives ET a new Iphone to “phone home” with

If your entire phone is a screen, where else will you be looking?