Filed under: Analysis / Opinion, Apple, iPhone
iPhone shortage hints at imminent refresh
Employee malfeasance and underwear gnome schemes cannot account for the nationwide shortage of retail iPhone availability. As many TUAW readers discovered to their delight, AT&T has been clearing out their refurb iPhone stock and Apple stores are short on the shelves. As Apple's supply chain is almost certainly unimpaired, pundits can only conclude that we're about ready to hit an iPhone refresh.
The question about the refresh isn't whether it will happen or not but rather when. We were guessing June/WWDC for a 3G iPhone announcement and September for a delivery -- after all, new cell equipment has to go through rigorous approval. Stock shortages indicate that at least a memory-based refresh might arrive sooner than later. Right now, Apple customers are experiencing 5-7 day shipment delays on their purchases.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
Thomas said 1:44PM on 4-02-2008
What is the criteria for having to gain new approval for a device? Obviously if you change the tx/rx stuff then it would need to be updated but memory seemingly doesn't. How much can be changed without approval - could they change the physical appearance at all?
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eric said 12:22PM on 4-02-2008
No refresh, guys! The inventories are low due to the recent release of the iphone in multiple countries including the UK and Australia.
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nigel said 12:48PM on 4-02-2008
I agree - no refresh yet. But there is no iphone in Australia yet - it's Austria!
tico24 said 12:50PM on 4-02-2008
What? That UK iPhone that's been out for nearly 6 months now?
mingistech said 2:25PM on 4-02-2008
UK has been out for 6 months and Austria is the size of Michigan... there is no way they are causing a shortage.
Fraser JK said 4:07PM on 4-02-2008
Regardless, I'll buy an iPhone 2nd generation or after.
Mat said 1:01PM on 4-02-2008
Would a September target release mean dwindling stock supplies right now (5 months prior)?
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Galley said 1:10PM on 4-02-2008
Even if the 2G iPhone is released at the end of June, isn't it a bit early for shortages? That's three months away!
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Ratking said 1:11PM on 4-02-2008
Okay, UK iPhone is not a new thing. Austria, yes, but really - you think that's a big market? Did anyone ever hear of a new production run of 1stGen iPhones? Only for the 16GB model.
Roadmap to iPhone software 2.0 is rollout of 2nd gen iPhone - wouldn't they call it software update 1.2 if it was the same thing? Godsakes, Tiger, Leopard, Panther are all part of the same VERSION release.
But don't listen to me, I'm just an old man who thinks he can tell the future...
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andy pullen said 1:55PM on 4-02-2008
I agree with you. It makes the most sense.
And about the FCC, does anyone actually know how long it takes for approval and if it can be done quietly? I hear conflicting reports about this, some who say what Steve Jobs said about it taking up to 6 months and it being a very public process. I don't know if I buy that though, because I would not be surprised if the ONLY reason Apple announced the iPhone early was to feed the hype machine. But my question remains: does anyone actually KNOW the process for FCC approval?
SpinThis! said 1:12PM on 4-02-2008
FCC approval does take a few months to complete but that certainly doesn't mean that Apple hasn't already submitted its required documentation and are just waiting on approval. Companies can opt to have the specifics about the product quiet until an embargo date—which the FCC usually honors.
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Michaelsviews said 1:21PM on 4-02-2008
I am betting on end of May or end June for 3G iPhone, perfect timing for AT&T and the new BB 3G do in June.
My Monies on June for 3G iPhone.
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Abbi Vakil said 1:41PM on 4-02-2008
I doubt a 3G iPhone (in the current form factor) is going to be announced so soon. A better explanation for the delay: Apple is changing internal circuitry/ components to thwart the unlockers. It’s become so trivial now, you’ve gotta think that any carrier that Apple approaches for exclusive contracts is pointing to these hackers and asking what benefit they will accrue when unlocking & using on a different network is so easy. I predict a new firmware for the baseband that stops the unlocking cold & gives Apple the upper hand in their negotiations.
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MacMoreno said 2:56PM on 4-02-2008
You can't really believe that Apple wants the unlockers to stop do you? Wasnt there a stat out there that some 70% of iPhones purchased are on unautherized carriers.
ron green said 1:58PM on 4-02-2008
Who cares? Unless 2nd Gen is going to allow me to do something I can't do now I have no interest.
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PSM said 2:15PM on 4-02-2008
Well it better be 3G. I'm taking no excuses if a 3G iPhone isn't at least announced at WWDC.
mingistech said 2:24PM on 4-02-2008
Re: PSM
You stole my avatar!
Joe said 3:26PM on 4-02-2008
Wait a second here. You're assuming that a new version of the iPhone won't have any new features?
Also, I don't think the rest of us care if you specifically are interested in this.
Techslacker said 2:43PM on 4-02-2008
I'm thinking that with Apple looking at pushing the whole mobile computing concept with iphones and ipods that Apple might want to get rid of the current 8GB iphones as quick as possible before the official 3rd party apps begin showing up not to mention getting the 16GB iphones down in price. I'm guessing 16GB is going to be the minimum demanded by consumers who want room for audio/video and still be able to install software.
Like some others I'm sure there'll be a 2.5G line and a 3G line of iphones.
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David Chartier said 3:24PM on 4-02-2008
Or, considering that the last iPhone refresh to 16GB occurred just a hair under two months ago, this could simply be indicative of strong demand. Apple doesn't refresh products six times a year.
AT&T and Apple may be flushing out their refurbs, but 8GB and 16GB models are both well stocked in AT&T stores. Refurb flushes happen pretty regularly when they start piling up. If anything, a big refurb push is probably an indication that lots of people have been returning iPhones.
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