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iPhone dev program acceptance rate: 16%

As Steve Jobs opened up the keynote on Monday, he threw out a few numbers which, frankly, went by me without really clicking until today. At 10:10, my live blog reads as such:

10:10. 25,000 applied to dev program. 4,000 admitted. 35% of the Fortune 500 has participated in the program. Working with Cisco for secure VPN. Push email, push contacts, push calendar, autodiscovery, global address lookup, remote wipe. iPhone 2.0 software is enterprise support, SDK, and new features

When you're liveblogging, these details tend to fly by -- without enough time to really process what you're typing. So it wasn't until this morning that it really hit me what this meant and it took a post by Rogue Amoeba's Paul Kafasis to make it sink in.

Read more about these numbers and my thoughts after the jump.

25000 applied; 4000 admitted. By any stretch of the calculator, thats only about a 16% acceptance rate. It's one that has left many independent OS X developers behind.

You might argue that the remaining 84% of applicants had access to the SDK and the simulator but that would miss the point. Many iPhone-specific features like core location and onboard sensors cannot be tested in the simulator. They're platform-based only. Without the $99 program, developers cannot deploy to the iPhone itself and test there. So their development possibilities are seriously hampered.

And testing is only part of the problem. AppStore access is contingent on dev program acceptance. Those 99 dollars give you the right to sell your product to millions of iPhone users. With such a low acceptance rate, many companies have been placed at a financial crossroads with respect to the iPhone. Should they continue to develop for a platform where they have no access? Or should they walk away and write it off?

What Paul's company ended up doing is what I know a lot of companies ended up doing. They had their developers apply as individuals as well as a company. Eventually someone got in and they used the individual license to get the corporate effort up and going.

You may argue that my post back in March mischaracterized those mass Apple mailings as rejection letters. But time has now shown that in fact they were.

Paul writes: "Ultimately, the problem here is with communications, or lack thereof, from Apple. When Apple first announced the SDK, thousands of developers rushed to apply for the development program, a flood for which Apple may not have been prepared. However, since then, Apple has bungled the processing these requests. Confusing emails and a lack of useful correspondence have left us waiting to hear the status of our application for a full three months and counting." Rogue Amoeba is a respected long-standing Mac development house with several best-in-class apps on offer.

(Full disclosure: I continue to write for O'Reilly as well as TUAW.)



As Steve Jobs opened up the keynote on Monday, he threw out a few numbers which, frankly, went by me without really clicking until today....
 

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Kai Cherry

As a dev that is in fact in said program, let me say this:

It is more trouble than it is worth at this time, and there is NO GUARANTEE AT ALL that *anything* you write will be sold on the App Store.

None whatsoever.

Tho I cannot get into details, I will say that the hoops you have to jump thru to even *debug* your app on an actual phone once you are actually "in" are un-sane and the whole process is VERY un-Apple.

And as the "beta" has progressed it has gotten *worse*.

Like screaming cursing you-have-got-to-be-kidding-me worse.

"Convoluted" is the word that comes to mind.

You want to get your app on the phone?

Drop me a line....maybe we can work out a publishing deal :)

Be glad there are brave suck- um, I mean, *souls* out there wallowing thru this pig poop for ya...

-K

June 13 2008 at 10:33 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
1 reply to Kai Cherry's comment
byron church

Thanks for that K ! I love Steve's Apple as much as the next Delinquent but man... the wall between the apples and the pie are getting thicker ! There's so much $$$ to be made it just can't be all good . Hey Steve ! Your looking all busy and stuff . Don't forget to say hi to us hoodlums out here in the fields !

June 14 2008 at 12:04 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
LuminousNerd.com

It's BETA, you morons! It's a limited BETA program! It's not out yet! 4000 is a shitload most than more companies allow during the beta process.

June 13 2008 at 10:07 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
1 reply to LuminousNerd.com's comment
LuminousNerd.com

I'm sorry my post came across so rude. I understand you WANTED to get in on the beta process, I really don't blame you. But you need to see this for what it is, it's a beta.

Also, OmniFocus isn't the only GTD app that will be out around the release of the App Store. I believe that Things also plans to.

June 13 2008 at 10:27 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
N. Holzschuch

I think one of these figures is misleading. As the poster said, companies applied, *and* had their developers apply as individual, to make sure at least one developer got through. Other developers applied twice or more, until one of their applications got accepted. So it's probably not 19 000 developers left out in the cold.

June 13 2008 at 9:31 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
chippydip

I wonder how many of the "why do we care?" commenters are developers themselves? Anyone? Didn't think so.

I think most developers (myself included) that haven't gotten into the program yet are just annoyed that Apple hasn't been more open about how the process will work. The original announcements made it sound like much more that 16% of applicants would have been accepted by this point. Make no mistake, being first to market is going to be a big advantage in some areas. How many task management applications do you think will even have a chance after people plunk down money for OmniFocus when its the only app of its kind at launch? Even if a developer writes something better, its a tough sell to get people to pay again for something they already have an application for. (This is just one example).

Now, people may say that developers aren't entitled to write apps for the iPhone. Fine. But its infuriating knowing that the only real qualification being used at this point is a lottery drawing. The individuals that were accepted got lucky with the random number generator and those that didn't get in are left behind for no particular reason. (Commentors above that aren't even serious developers but have gotten into the beta just confirm this).

I still expect that everyone who wants in will be accepted once the App Store officially launches (otherwise they should have been filtering people based on some sort of actual criteria already) but it would be nice if Apple would at least come out and confirm this publicly.

Oh, and for the people that keep thinking limiting the developers will improve the quality of apps in the store: The invites have been mostly random thus far, so there will be just as many junk apps written already. Letting everyone in will certainly increase this number, but it will also increase the number of genuinely useful applications by the same proportion. This gives anyone with the ability to filter their buying habits based on reviews/etc a much better chance at finding quality stuff in the store. For those not so gifted, you're probably in trouble either way.

June 13 2008 at 6:43 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Matt

I was accepted almost immediately into the program... which is curious to me as I had no experience whatsoever in the Mac programming world. A web developer by day, I only tinker with Mac programming by night. I was very surprised to learn not only that I had been accepted, but that so few made it in...

June 13 2008 at 3:39 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Leon

if the acceptance rates stays that low we'll kick the iphone and focus on andorid development. as android will have an app store too and it's a completely open system it's now our favoured platform.

fyi: i wrote something about that on my blog at http://www.androidcode.de/offenes-iphone-sdk-eine-uebertreibung/ (german) - and it's a shame that apple is just about to piss off their developers (the most iphone developers are oldschool mac developers).

June 13 2008 at 3:25 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
beercake

I thinks it's just unfair: Those who got in, have a head-start and can earn money earlier... If they delay participants after the release-date of the App-Store it really hurts on the bottom-line. Also some application ideas might be already on the store, while it might look like, I was a copy-cat by just duplicating an application, where it might be the other way round.

I'm currently blocked for testing (Accelerometer...) and even had to install the jail-brake toolchain, just to do real testing. But as the development (framework + environment) is quite a bit different, I have to do additional, unnecessary efforts.

June 13 2008 at 2:18 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
2 replies to beercake's comment
Cameron

Yeah I've gone done the jailbroke tool chain route too, but I've used so much stuff that is new/different in 2.0 that it is very painful.

As to your other comments, it is unfair. What happens if someone in the beta developed my app too, but is able to release on day 1 and I am not? They have an unfair (from a US law standpoint) advantage. My guess is that Apple will let everyone in that is willing to pay prior to the first iphone apps appearing on the app store. This is a very bizzare environment to develop on. Apple is going to have to learn to be more open with their developers if they truly want to gain more marketshare, their in a great position to eventually take over leadership over Windows if they play their cards right, and step 1 is transitioning Windows developers over to OSX.

June 13 2008 at 4:28 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
SpinThis!

Instead of trying to be first to market with an application, why not be original? There's advantages to being first, true, there's also advantages to be second or third to feel out the "competition" and see what else is out there.

Especially if the competing application is free and has the exact same features as the one you want to charge for, it might not even be worth developing. Then again, price—by its very nature—can be very powerful. It's also been proven people put higher value on higher priced items.

There's interesting studies on this if you google it—for example, store bought cola vs name iirc. When researchers told the participants what the price of each was (but didn't tell them they were actually sampling the same exact item), people gravitated towards the "higher priced item" even though it was identical.

June 13 2008 at 5:38 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Thrasher

Interesting...

I assumed that most applicants got in, since I'm nothing special. Though I suppose I do have a shipping, for-sale Cocoa app, and they did call and confirm I was who I said I was along with requiring proof of my business license, so I guess they really were somewhat picky. Anyway, hopefully they open it up to anyone who applies when iPhone 2.0 is released.

June 13 2008 at 2:12 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Kirk

I have been developing iPhone apps full time since the SDK was announced and I applied for the developer program on day 1. However, it is now less than 1 month until the App Store opens and I wonder if I have wasted all this time developing apps that I won't be able to market. Apple has released no information about when other developers will be accepted into the program. Will I be accepted next week, next month or next year? I am beginning to think I should cut my losses and switch to the Android platform. Very frustrating.

June 13 2008 at 1:18 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
2 replies to Kirk's comment
byron church

Is there a possibility for multiple calendars with colors like in iCal ? I cant tell my To Dos from my To Don'ts ! Not to mention my To Dids and to shoulds

June 13 2008 at 1:53 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Anthony

Turn the light out on your way out will you.

June 13 2008 at 2:00 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Steve

What's ridiculous to me is the sense of entitlement companies like Rogue Amoeba and many others feel. Nobody at Apple ever said that you'd be guaranteed anything, and certainly not access to the devices just by asking.

The floodgates will open once the 2.0 update is out of the door. If you've got a problem with it, quit whining and go write WinMo apps.

June 13 2008 at 1:03 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
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