Filed under: Analysis / Opinion, Apple, iPhone
Good news for Apple: Android delays expected
The Wall Street Journal is reporting that Google's mobile phone platform, Android, is experiencing delays that may move the launch of Android-based phones into early 2009. In a Monday article about the delays, the WSJ noted that at the launch of Android last November it was expected that the new breed of smartphones would appear in the second quarter of 2008. Due to developmental difficulties, the first carrier to have an Android-based phone -- T-Mobile -- may not see one until the fourth quarter. Google is focused on the T-Mobile launch, which is causing further delays for other partners such as Sprint Nextel and China Mobile.
What does this mean for Apple? A lot of good things. By the fourth quarter of 2008 or early 2009, the iPhone 3G, App Store, and development for iPhone will be well established, with tens of millions of the inexpensive handsets sold. It also points out the intelligence of Apple in owning all pieces of the puzzle -- hardware, software, development, and software distribution -- instead of relying on various open source development teams and numerous hardware partners.
Apple's won this battle, and things are looking good for winning the handset war.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
sscott said 3:38PM on 6-23-2008
I expected this, although I never thought it was be a real problem for the iPhone.
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prajna said 3:41PM on 6-23-2008
Interesting take on this development. Most commentary I've seen has lauded Apple for taking its time in developing new products and platforms, rather than jumping in with something half-baked. I could have sworn I'd read commentary to this effect on this very site. Now Apple is going to be at a significant advantage because its a little bit ahead chronologically. Well, we'll see about all that. While I applaud the significant technological and user-oriented advances of the iPhone, I am very much looking forward to a more open platform which Android represents. More competition, more choices, more options--this is what I really like to see. I am not an early adopter by a long-shot, I'm the wait-and-see type, and I'm looking forward to the fruits of both of these initiatives.
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Dan Woods said 4:35PM on 6-23-2008
They did try something Half-Baked.
Remember the Motorola ROKR?
wako said 3:49PM on 6-23-2008
Im all for Apple too, but if you honestly declaring a victor before the battle even begins you honestly have no idea how the mobile market works; or even the slightest idea how the electronic market works.
Good job TUAW, another incompetent editor
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Steven Sande said 4:13PM on 6-23-2008
And thank you for your insightful comment, Wako.
Considering I've been covering the mobile market online since 1993, and have been a developer for NewtonOS, PalmOS, WindowsCE/Windows Mobile, I think I know what the heck I'm talking about. I've been a judge for Smartphone & Pocket PC Magazine's Best Software Awards for five years, and I've also attended three of Microsoft's invitation-only Mobius conferences.
In the mobile market, it's all about two things - speed to market with hot devices and software, and maintaining innovation. With Apple's pricing on iPhone 3G, the huge distribution channel that is in place, and the amount of free and inexpensive software that will soon be available, Apple has a good six month lead on any Android device. As to whether or not Apple can maintain the momentum is another matter.
Most of my contacts in the WinMo, PalmOS and Symbian software world tell me that their companies are quickly moving to support iPhone. Not one of them has even mentioned Android at this point.
Anyway, you'll notice that this article is marked "Analysis / Opinion". This is my opinion. You don't have to agree with it. But saying that I don't know what I'm talking about without knowing my background in the mobile market is just plain ignorant.
TUAW Steve
Patrick said 5:59PM on 6-23-2008
@Steven
Wonderful. That and $3.49 will buy you a coffee. What it -won't- do is tell you how an open source phone will compete against a relatively closed handset. And the iPhone 3G's price is only slightly less than the first generation if you consider the outrageous contract you have to sign. Keywords: have to.
The iPhone's software, on the other hand, is great. The amount of apps written for it grow every day and are always innovative. But I wouldn't put out the cash for a phone just based on the applications I can get for it.
Your article came off a tad (re: extremely) arrogant and conclusive for a "battle" that hasn't even begun. Keep in mind that a lot of Mac users and TUAW readers are big fans of Google, too.
John said 3:50PM on 6-23-2008
Per the larger blog that also posted a few hours earlier:
yet the article fails to mention that this is right inline
with what Google has been saying for quite awhile now.
Google for a very long time has said not to expect one until the beginning of '09.
Apple is still going to do very well despite the launch of WM 7, Android, and any new feature packs to S60, but with the lackluster updates to the iPhone, they are going to experience some serious competition
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Greg said 3:53PM on 6-23-2008
Damnit!
I didn't realize that the comments field doesn't support block quotes.
Oh well
Will said 3:57PM on 6-23-2008
Or as Engadget puts it:
There's a lot of hoopla today over a Wall Street Journal piece stating that Google's first Android device has been pushed back to late 2008 for release -- yet the article fails to mention that this is right inline with what Google has been saying for quite awhile now. Admittedly, the fresh-faced mobile competitor probably is finding itself somewhat mired in carrier demands, which doesn't seem unexpected given the broad swath of partners it's collaborating with and the open source nature of the project, but as phone release schedules go, it hasn't veered off the path much. The breakdown is something like this: from what we've been told, you can expect an Android-powered handset before the new year (i.e., HTC's Dream driven by Google's OS), followed by a crop of higher profile phones showing up in early 2009 (as previously stated by companies like LG and Samsung). So... feel free to switch off the alarms anytime you like.
Oops?
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Lars said 4:00PM on 6-23-2008
First, how did Apple win a battle by doing nothing? Also:
"...with tens of millions of the inexpensive handsets sold."
This remains to be seen. There is no guarantee that it will sell that many units in such a short period. Official plans for the Netherlands aren't yet out - but from preliminary reports by T-Mobile the cheapest plan will be pretty expensive (30 euros or 46 bucks), with no word about the final euro price of the iPhone itself or whether or not that price includes internet (which would be another 10 euros or 15 dollars *minimum*).
I'm surrounded by a lot of techsavy persons and interest in the iPhone is limited. It's out in less than a month over here and I have friends that do not wait until then, when they can renew their subscriptions.
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steve said 4:03PM on 6-23-2008
Over at last last100, I wonder if Google’s Open Handset Alliance strategy may have inherited the worse aspects of both an open and closed platform. By releasing Android to developers, carriers and handset manufacturers as a ‘work in progress’, Google has raised expectations (since anything “broken” can still, in theory, be fixed), with each partner seemingly able to make their own demands on what the finished platform will look like. Worse still, if they don’t like the outcome, Android’s open-source license means that partners are at liberty to make any changes they see fit, not just cosmetic, including re-designing the UI and closing off access to parts of the operating system. It’s in this context that Apple’s more closed strategy and the Steve Jobs dictatorship doesn’t look so bad after all.
http://www.last100.com/2008/06/23/no-surprise-gphone-reportedly-delayed/
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kleinias said 4:04PM on 6-23-2008
An alternate headline might have been: Bad news for Apple consumers: Android delays expected.
Along with coverage of how this affects Apple, it would be nice to read a little bit about how this may affect those of us that buy Apple's (relatively expensive) products. Elsewhere I've read about Apple's iPhone being good for everyone because it pushes other handset makers to improve their products. Perhaps the same thing will occur when Android handsets hit the market.
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Josh said 4:15PM on 6-23-2008
The mobile phone market is very finicky. While the iPhone strong right who's to say that the bottom won't drop out. I for one am looking forward to Android since I think it will be good competition to help keep pushing the envelope of what can be done in mobile devices.
Also don't be quick to dismiss the Balckberry and WM platforms both have done very well and will continue to be thorns in the side of the iPhone and since in the US AT&T can't piss off their other suppliers since not everyone wants an iPhone they have to play a well balanced game by not over selling the iPhone, to ensure that they continue to get new products from their other suppliers.
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koreyel said 4:40PM on 6-23-2008
"....with tens of millions of the inexpensive handsets sold."
What's cheap about the contract you have to sign? It's just another page from the Gillette Big Book of marketing: Give 'em the razors and sell 'em the blades. That game is rigged. Always has been. Always will be. Dummies only need apply...
If the iPhone was open then you might brag about a head start and Apple being well-positioned. Hell, they could swallow up and use Android in the process. Apple would be selling a gazillion iPhones, and truly they would be kicking ass. As it is, Jobs has positioned the iPhone as just another niche gadget for nicheboys.
No thanks: Proprietary. Locked. Technology.
It's boring as hell. That is old-man-yesterday thinking...
Sort of like the way Jobs has been looking these days. Flu? A bug? Nah. OLD. YESTERDAY. WASHED-UP.
Yep: I am waiting for the youngblood: the truly open phone...
http://www.openmoko.com/
It will be worth the wait.
In the meanwhile, the Nokia works just fine.
Quix said 8:36PM on 6-23-2008
@ koreyel:
OpenMoko? Seriously?
Yeah, that's going to transform the handheld world like Ubuntu has transformed the desktop world.
In other words: NOT.
Thanks for the laugh though.
Bassir said 4:58PM on 6-23-2008
Potential Android buyers don't care about the iPhone, and the typical consumer doesn't even know Google has a mobile phone platform.
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Jaioxung said 5:07PM on 6-23-2008
I don't know much about programing and such but it seems that an open source mobile platform could end up being rife with malicious wares and in combination with a device that is always connected this seems pretty dangerous and potentially infuriating. Am I understanding this right?
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HandyMac said 5:25PM on 6-23-2008
Uh, why does it have to be a "war" that Apple has to "win"? iPhone is doing fine, and will continue to do fine, just like the Mac, with a portion of the market. Having less than 100% of a market is not "losing" -- as Steve pointed out years ago in his comparison of Apple and BMW. I don't want Apple to become another Micro$oft, in any field -- if it did, it'd be ... another Micro$oft.
I'm happy to see Apple being successful, but I'd rather not see anyone occupying more than 10% (20% at most) of *any* technology market. A healthy ecosystem is a complex ecosystem.
I've never had a cellphone, and have no interest in in getting one; but if I did, it wouldn't be an iPhone, despite that I've been an exclusive Mac user for over 20 years, precisely because of the closed, locked-in, expen$ive contractual nature of the iPhone environment. I'm not interested in being anyone's slave, not even Apple's. Power corrupts, and the master-slave relationship degrades both parties.
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Jaioxung said 5:49PM on 6-23-2008
I don't understand everyone's hatred of the 2-year contract period. Its not exclusive to the iPhone and I'm pretty sure its not exclusive to AT&T either. Besides do people really change their cell phone carrier that often? In my experience the answer is no.
Jaioxung said 5:51PM on 6-23-2008
I don't understand everyone's hatred of the 2-year contract period. Its not exclusive to the iPhone and I'm pretty sure its not exclusive to AT&T either. Besides do people really change their cell phone carrier that often? In my experience the answer is no.
It is expensive, I do agree with that, but most people look at things in terms of monthly cost, not overall cost.