Analyst: 45M iPhones in 2009
Despite issues with the iPhone 3G -- less-than-stellar battery life, dropped calls, crashes, etc. -- stock market analysts are very bullish on Apple's product.BusinessWeek reported that Piper Jaffray tech analyst Gene Munster is forecasting sales of 13 million iPhone 3Gs in 2008, and a whopping 45 million on 2009. That's considerably higher than what other analysts are proposing, which is in the range of 11 million in 2008 and "only" 26 million in 2009.
The BusinessWeek article also mentioned Apple's new production goals point to 40 to 45 million handsets between now and August of 2009, which fits into Munster's forecast nicely. Of course, supply is only half of the picture. Demand for the 3G depends on Apple and carriers fixing issues quickly, decent rate plans from carriers, and killer apps in the App Store.
As Apple rolls into large and previously untouched markets such as Russia and China, forges deals with other retailers such as Best Buy, and works with developers to bring hot applications to the App Store, we'll see how the forecasts compare with reality.
How accurate do you think the projections are? Share your opinion in a comment.
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Despite issues with the iPhone 3G -- less-than-stellar battery life, dropped calls, crashes, etc. -- stock market analysts are very bullish...
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I have 2 and very pleased. Last qtr sales were down because of roll out of the 3G version, 1st gen was unavailable for 6 weeks or so.
Why do the non-fanboys need to resort to offensive tones in their comments.
PS: The battery issue, I believe, is a direct result of the continuous use the iphone gets and not bad batteries. If other phones had the capability of the iPhone they would also deplete the battery from the higher usage. I get about 4 hours of net surfing and app usage from a charge. 3G does seem to be a power hog, but in most instances I have 3G turned off. I suspect as people learn to manage their power this can get to be a non issue.
13 million *3G* iPhones in what lasts of 2008? I don't see it happening - the device is very expensive to buy outside the US and/or encredibly expensive to own.
Even in The Netherlands, where the device can be had for just one euro with the "right" plan (and relatively cheap entry plans) only around 35.000 units were sold - all to early adopters and fans.
I'm curious to see if they can maintain those figures, since everyone who had one, got one. In my tech savvy but cost conscious circle of friends just two people bought one.
The rest is not interested (nor am I - I'm getting a Sony Ericsson since I like to sync calendar and contacts over Bluetooth and change my own battery).
45 million next year is even more unlikely to me.
For as far as I understood, it were 35,000 units on the first week after launch. But I might be off.
August 24 2008 at 7:21 PM Report abuse Permalink rate up rate down ReplyI'll be picking up 2 this week, and holding on to my AAPL stock...
August 23 2008 at 9:28 AM Report abuse Permalink rate up rate down Replysales are slowing now as iphone's launch outside of the US is kinda "meh" (too expensive for most of the world) so I don't see those numbers getting anywhere near actual sales...
August 23 2008 at 6:28 AM Report abuse Permalink rate up rate down ReplyWhich is probably why there's a 6 week delay on online orders where I live. Nice try, though.
August 24 2008 at 7:19 PM Report abuse Permalink rate up rate down ReplyExpanding the American market to T-Mobile would help (if T-Mo EVER ROLLS OUT THE F'N 3G!!!!!!!!)...
August 23 2008 at 12:32 AM Report abuse Permalink rate up rate down ReplyI think Munster's forecast is very achievable. He has actually been projecting numbers very similar to those for some time now - before the 3G launch and the announcement of the rollout to 75 some odd countries (which is still growing). Factor in the fact that close to 1000 Best Buys will be selling the iPhone beginning the first week of Sept. and I think his prediction just keeps making more sense.
Mr. Munster's forecast will prove to be very prescient indeed.
I only wish shareholders could benefit from the success...
August 22 2008 at 8:07 PM Report abuse Permalink rate up rate down ReplyI thought the "less than stellar battery life" was still very good for 3G cell phones, or did I get that wrong?
And btw.: having worked as cell tester for Vodafone I tested about all cell phones you can get, and iPhone owners can be very happy. Very, very happy.
Good point. It would be fun to do a comparison of 3G battery life between my Nokia N95 and the 3G.
TUAW Steve
I am sure these analysts have a better idea than us (mind you their past suggestions often seem way off!)
How many blackberry's are sold each year? Would be interesting to know...
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