Filed under: Analysis / Opinion, Developer, App Store
Rank and sales data could help figure out App Store popularity algorithm
Joel Comm, publisher of the highly-useful app iFart Mobile, has published some data about how sales related to popularity in the App Store.
While I have only a high-school understanding of statistics, it would appear from Comm's data that as sales rise in a linear fashion, App Store ranking increases (or I should say decreases, because lower numbers are better) logarithmically.
Comm admits that his data isn't carefully tabulated: he hand-counted the sales, as they're broken down by country, and says he didn't include countries "where one or two units were sold." Comm's data was collected between December 12th and 17th.
On Sunday's talkcast, the Iconfactory's Craig Hockenberry and Gedeon Maheux lamented the lack of analysis tools for sales, and said they'd appreciate more transparency about how rankings are mathematically determined.
Comm anticipates more data will be forthcoming from other developers. With more data, a more detailed statistical analysis can be performed, and preferably from someone other than a TUAW blogger who majored in art.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
Chris Haynes said 12:21PM on 12-20-2008
I'm a little annoyed at the way the App Store runs (and how it is run).
I've got three games on there: Colony, Squares, and Linx, a new one I uploaded the other day.
I've seen very poor sales from them (though Squares is free...) mainly because my games don't get placement on the front page of the App Store.
What's annoying is that I released Linx to Apple for them to review on 14th Dec but it didn't show up until the 18th. Fair enough, it takes some time to review an app, but mine shows up with a release date of 14th. There were other apps released on the 18th that have a release date of the 18th. Thus, my app falls into the list 4 days after all the others. It's not on the front page's "NEW" section, even though it's new, and it's not on the first page of its category because there were other apps released within those 4 days.
Until Apple plays fair and lets EVERY app have a chance at getting onto the front page, the App Store is going to see sales for apps that are written by companies like Sega or Facebook, and nothing for independent developers like me. Yes, there are success stories like Trism and Ocarina, but that's because they're on the front page. People see them and click on them. If you can't see your app on the front page or first couple of pages of a listing, your app is effectively dead.
Another point is that Linx also has a free version, submitted to Apple at the same time as the full version. The free version is still in review. It's the same game but with a limit on the number of levels you can play. The only reason Linx Free hasn't been reviewed quicker is that it doesn't get Apple any revenue, but if people don't get to try my game before they buy it, few people will buy it.
If I don't see a reasonable number of sales for Linx, I'll have to give up writing for the iPhone. Oh, it's a great experience, learning Objective-C and a new SDK in a few weeks, and seeing my games on other peoples' iPhones, but I don't do it purely for the fun of it.
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Kai Cherry said 7:35PM on 12-20-2008
Well, if the whole process was a bit more transparent, and made *any* sense at all, I'd be pleased.
My scenario:
I submit an app on the 19th..of November. Apple kicks it back because they wish me to make a quite frankly, bizarre change.
Fine, we make the change, send it back.
App is still "in review" and 2 requests (so far) for follow up have been summarily ignored.
I see apps being submitted and released with a 3-5 day turnaround.
The whole process seems to be a bit...obtuse and random, really.
-K
darkpaw said 1:31PM on 12-20-2008
I've done that, thanks.
It's still a little unfair though, on Apple's part, to not list new apps in the "NEW" section. It seems to me that "NEW" to Apple actually means "Things that will make us a ton of cash".
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Kai Cherry said 7:39PM on 12-20-2008
Yeah, I noticed this not too long ago too...the store doesn't *actually list all of the new apps released* in the "NEW" section.
I'm not sure how it differs from being Featured in this regard.
-K
Dan said 3:30PM on 12-20-2008
I think it's time for iPhone developers to realize that the iTunes app store is not the only way to publicize your application. What about Google Ads, or ads on Apple specific blogs, or trying to build buzz and getting written up or reviewed.
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Joel Comm said 4:34PM on 12-20-2008
Thanks for discussing this here.
And absolutely... We promoted iFart Mobile a number of ways. Press releases, direct contact with publications like TechCrunch, networking with associates to get Twitter action, etc.
You can't just make an app and expect it to go viral. There is too much competition now.
I am glad to have a top app heading into Christmas, though. Should make for a very merry one!
Joel
Kai Cherry said 7:42PM on 12-20-2008
It certainly isn't the only way, no, but since you really have no control over, you know, when your app even goes on sale...or if, for that matter, it becomes even more costly and risky to pursue other promotional avenues...especially since it seems that the one that overwhelmingly has the greatest impact is App Store placement.
Lesson said 9:19PM on 12-20-2008
Thanks for information ;)
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Steven said 7:48AM on 12-21-2008
WhatI I find quite interesting in the statistics shown, is that around 7000 units were sold in a mater of 5 days. I wouldn't complain much if I would make $7000,- within a week.
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Joel Comm said 12:29PM on 12-21-2008
I've just updated the stats. Check it out...
http://www.joelcomm.com/updated_app_store_data_122008.html
Joel
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Graham Dawson said 6:10PM on 12-21-2008
I have posted a similar analysis for my app in the Australian app store, covering 7 weeks of sales over rankings from 20th to 2nd. Combining this with Joel's and other's data starts to give a pretty good picture of sales vs rank - both for Australia and worldwide. http://ajnaware.wordpress.com/2008/12/21/how-to-estimate-app-sales/
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