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Seeing the future from the past

We'll be seeing a lot of predictions about the immediate future in the coming days. We're not immune here at TUAW and you'll likely get some predictions from your humble bloggers, but it is really interesting to look back and see how our current technology was (or was not) predicted in the past.

Here is a link to a talk by Nicholas Negroponte from 1984. At the time, Negroponte was head of the MIT Media Lab, and company CEOs were always taking their people there to see what the future might have to offer. This video is from the year the Macintosh appeared. Negroponte talked about touch screens, high resolution monitors, and the future of user interfaces. It is a fascinating presentation, and his predictions for the most part are right on target. It's almost 30 minutes long, but give it a try and I think you'll find it pretty eye-opening.

It isn't easy predicting the future. I remember seeing the General Motors film about the future done for the 1939 Worlds Fair in New York. Most of those predictions were wrong, and very 'Buck Rogers.' Robots doing housework, automated cars and a lot of other things that haven't come to pass, at least not yet.

Negroponte, who now is behind the One Laptop Per Child project, has had a very keen eye over time. Many of the things he predicted came to pass in products released by Apple, which have benefited users immensely.

[via Funky Space Monkey]

We'll be seeing a lot of predictions about the immediate future in the coming days. We're not immune here at TUAW and you'll likely get...
 

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Vihung Marathe

> ... Robots doing housework, automated cars ...

Admittedly, we do not see robots doing housework in the way they imagined back then - with anthopomorphised bipedal metal people standing upright with two eyes, ears a nose a mouth and hands and arms, but so much of our housework is automated - mechanically and electronically - and computerised to a fine detail. washing machines, dishwashers, refrigerators, microwave ovens, central heating pumps, air conditioning and thermostats all existed in the 50s, but so much of their function is now so finely controlled by microprocessors

Likewise for automated cars - so many things that used to be mechanical and failure prone are finely controlled by computers - from the timing of the engine, fuel pumps, oil flow to new things like airbags, stability control etc. What about cruise control, distance control, parking assist, lane departure warnings and guidance.

Sounds pretty science fiction to me

December 30 2008 at 11:19 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
1 reply to Vihung Marathe's comment
Zimmie

And don't forget actual household robots like Roombas. They aren't terribly common yet, but they're selling quite well and becoming much more widespread. Home automation systems and computerized appliances are also pushing this in a direction most people 10-15 years ago didn't expect.

December 30 2008 at 4:43 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
sdemo

Speaking of the future... can anybody fore-see when new models or revisions of iPod will be released?

December 30 2008 at 10:01 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Raheem

Either the human race is severely underachieving, or our aspirations always exceed our short term capability. Or both.

December 30 2008 at 7:42 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
3 replies to Raheem's comment
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