Apple distributes 1.5B apps in App Store's first year

Apple announced today in a short press release that it had sold distributed 1.5 billion iPhone and iPod touch applications during the App Store's first year of existence.
Despite the slow economy, App Store sales downloads appear to have accelerated since last year, showing a fairly positive polynomial trend. Apple is selling offering (via a packet-switched network) apps roughly five times faster than it did when the store opened.
The App Store now features 65,000 apps available to users in 77 countries. The iPhone Developer Program includes 100,000 members, too.
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Apple announced today in a short press release that it had sold distributed 1.5 billion iPhone and iPod touch applications during the App...
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RE: VanillaSpice - where did I get the info about re-downloads and updates counting in Apple's 1.5b figure?
First, take Apple's word for it. They did not say they "sold" 1.5b apps, but that 1.5b had been "downloaded". If they truly sold 1.5b, they would be happy to say so. Taking the downloaded number (which is larger) makes better PR, and Apple is all about good PR (I say that in a friendly way).
Second, apply the sniff test. Look around at your friends who are "average users" (not those who are likely to be reading this blog) and see how many apps on average they have added to their devices. Then multiply that by the number of devices out there and you will likely come up well short of 1.5 billion.
Apple says "downloaded" and not "sold" because a lot of apps are free, and they are counting free apps as well as paid. The use of that terminology does not indicate at all whether updates and re-downloads are counted.
It would actually be very bad PR for Apple to put this number out there, and then later admit that it did include updates. They would know that people would be assuming that the figure does not included updates.
In any case, some further searching revealed these quotes, from the time of the billionth download:
Dan Frommer, writing for Silicon Alley Insider - "Apple confirms that this does *not* include updates" (his emphasis). (Apr 23 2009)
http://www.businessinsider.com/apple-passes-1-billion-iphone-apps-downloaded-2009-4
Eliot Van Buskirk writing for Wired's Epicenter - "And itâs impressive that iPhone and iPod Touch users have downloaded a billion apps from the store, since (as we confirmed today with Apple) its download tally does not include updates to previously-downloaded apps." (Apr 24 2009)
http://www.wired.com/epicenter/2009/04/billionth-iphone-app-downloader-scores-freebies-developer-wins-too/
What the hell is the unit for time used in creating that quadratic fit line? I get it to be about 1 unit = 20 minutes, but I'm not convinced I've not deluded myself somewhere.
Anyway, extrapolating based on that line using my creative approach to mathematics gives Apple about 100,000,000,000,000 app sales (one hundred trillion) by this time next year. Not bad at all.
I wonder how many downloads are first-time downloads and how many are
updates/re-downloads after resetting the phone/formatting the
computer.
The 1.5 billion "Downloaded" apps includes three types of application acquistion:
1. apps which are sold the first time - these count as "sales", but Apple does not provide a separate number for this segment of the 1.5 billion
2. apps which are free, downloaded the first time
3. apps which are re-downloaded for one reason or another. Usually due to version upgrades, but sometimes due to apps which are deleted and re-downloaded, and sometimes due to replaced iPhones, and probably a few other reasons as well. This is by far the largest segment of the 1.5 billion, since most apps that I have owned have been upgraded several times since I have owned them.
Each app that is acquired (whether free or sold) originally, will be upgraded x times over it's installed life. Unless we know what the value of x is, then we cannot reliably estimate the sales value of the 1.5 billion downloaded apps.
There are other variables too. I have deleted a few apps that I have purchased because they were disappointing. There are apps that my iTunes downloaded for updates while my iPhone did as well. And there was the time I replaced my iPhone and had to re-download some apps which had not been backed up in my iTunes. These scenarios all would have to be taken into account in order to derive the sales figure from the raw download number provided by Apple.
Where did you find that information - that re-downloads and updates are counted as downloads for these figures? I searched but could not find anything from Apple (or anyone else) that definitively states that it is the case that re-downloads and updates are counted.
Many people say they aren't, and many people say they are, but no-one provides a source.
I'd very much like to know whether they're counted. This will become especially important once we start comparing the App Store's success with the success of other smartphone application marketplaces, because we'll need to know that we are comparing ... well, apples to apples, I suppose.
Yeah, TUAW, please fix "sold" vs. "downloaded" business - it's totally misleading at best and just plain wrong at worst.
July 14 2009 at 12:01 PM Report abuse Permalink rate up rate down ReplyI don't get it. How's app downloads any different than app sales?
July 14 2009 at 11:27 AM Report abuse Permalink rate up rate down ReplyExactly. Apple referred to this number as downloads in the press release, not sales. But TUAW and other media will likely call these sales numbers.
July 14 2009 at 11:11 AM Report abuse Permalink rate up rate down Reply"Apple® today announced that customers have downloaded more than 1.5 billion applications in just one year"
They don't give a number sold.
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