Filed under: Analysis / Opinion, Rumors, Wireless, Odds and ends, iPhone
Gene Munster: iPhone on multiple U.S. carriers in 2010
Gene Munster, the Piper Jaffrey senior research analyst who usually hits the nail on the head when it comes to Apple forecasts, thinks that Apple will move to multiple U.S. carriers within the next year. He believe that this will happen next summer, which has been the time when Apple has introduced new models of the iPhone.Munster noted that having multiple carriers in a market has helped Apple to achieve greater success in terms of market penetration. He pointed to France as an example; originally, Apple inked an exclusive arrangement with Orange. When it moved to a multi-carrier deal, Apple's market share in France jumped to about the 40 percent range. In the U.S., the iPhone's market share is only in the mid-teens.
Many industry pundits expect the next iPhone carrier to be Verizon, since they are beginning a transition to a new, iPhone-compatible 4G network (LTE) in the next year. This would make the transition rather simple for Apple, since they wouldn't have to design an EV-DO iPhone, but instead just use the current hardware design.
Update: Per TUAW reader Ben C., the Verizon 4G transition is not expected to be completed until 2013. In addition, a CDMA-based iPhone would need to be deployed for Verizon. Thanks for the correction and explanation.
[via LoopInsight]
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
Ben Carroll said 2:11PM on 8-31-2009
Uh... that last paragraph was so full of fail. Obviously you have no clue how cell phone networks work...
LTE is a data transmission standard, it is not GSM. If you take a look at AT&T they have a modified CDMA standard for their data transmission, but their phones still use GSM.
Verizion will continue to use CDMA, and will just be throwing LTE on top of that. So if Apple would ever want to bring the iPhone to the big V they would have to design a CDMA radio, which I have no doubt they already have one.
And one more fact the LTE network probably won't be fully deployed till about 2012 -2013
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Chris said 3:01PM on 8-31-2009
ok if you are going to call out the writer than get your facts straight. I will say that yes he is being a little misleading by making it seem as though iPhone is set up to handle the LTE standard, however what are you trying to sell?
AT&T at it's core uses the GSM standard built off of TDMA (time division multiple access) which is a technology that divides each cellular channel into time slots in order to increase the amount of data that can be carried. Built onto this system is GPRS & EDGE which are both considered 2.5G, and UMTS & HSDPA which are considered 3G.
Whereas Verizon (as you pointed out) uses CDMA (code division multiple access) which is a form of multiplexing, which allows numerous signals to occupy a single transmission channel, optimizing the use of the available bandwidth. Built onto this system is 1XRTT which is considered 2.5G, and EVDO and EVDO Rev. A which are considered 3G.
The 4G standard of LTE is built upon UMTS which at its core is a GSM technology that both AT&T and Verizon will sign onto for at least the next 5-10 years. Not that the average cell user gives a crap but you can't call out a writer with false info.
Ben Carroll said 3:22PM on 8-31-2009
I am not selling anything.
You see UMTS, HSDPA, CDMA2000 are all built with CDMA. LTE is an evolution of UMTS, and has the abilatiy to hand off communications with GSM, cdmaONE, UMTS, and CDMA2000. So in other words it is just a data transmission standard, which would not use SIM cards if used with a cdma network, or it would use SIM cards if used with a GSM network.
The writer of the article just made it sound like a GSM iPhone would just work with verizion, I was just trying to correct him.
Anyway sorry if I came across as rude, I wasn't trying to be. Mondays got to hate them.
Izzy said 4:00PM on 8-31-2009
LTE will be using SIM cards. Unless they changed the spec. in the last 6 months.
Chris said 4:36PM on 8-31-2009
haha, no big. I just feel bad for the writers at TUAW sometimes. They seem to get their @$$'s chewed out if they make a minor blunder, but I can see you aren't that type of person! no hard feelings man!! : )
jonathan said 11:08AM on 9-01-2009
THANK YOU BEN!
i have been saying this on the comments for the last 6 months. verizon has specifically stated it will not use gsm for voice on its LTE network. the LTE that verizon is building is for data only.
HOWEVER, they are planning to release this LTE network in Jan10, from latest reports. but that, in my consideration, is NOT a 4G network.
LTE ADVANCED is the 4G network everyone refers to. LTE is a 3.5G network or an "early 4G"
in order to be truly 4G and meet the objectives, you MUST have a 1Gb/sec download speed while remaining still, and a 100Mb/sec download link whilst moving at fast distances relative to the station. the LTE network as its currently being built will not reach those limits.
the LTE ADVANCED network is expected to be completed in 2013-14 and be the successor to GSM.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/4g
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LTE_Advanced
ace said 2:16PM on 8-31-2009
Unlikely. As a voice standard for LTE is still up in the air, handsets on vzw will (at least initially) will need to use CDMA IS95 (voice), same as every CDMA (1x, EVDO, and revA) handset does now. And VZW won't have all markets covered by LTE for a long time, so any handset sold by them will need to support CDMA voice and data.
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oldmanhorton said 2:21PM on 8-31-2009
LTE isnt in any current iPhone. they would have to put a new cell chip in whether its Ev-Do or LTE, or even WiMAX or WiBro
(repeats what the first two commenters said)
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gofargogo said 2:34PM on 8-31-2009
So what does this mean with the amended information? Is Munster predicting that iPhone will have a CDMA chip next year? Or is he also clueless about how cellphones work?
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ryan said 2:36PM on 8-31-2009
I thought for certain I heard Jobs state (during MacWorld, January 2007) that the iPhone/AT&T partnership was exclusive for 5 years.
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J said 2:45PM on 8-31-2009
If they would incorporate the 3G band that T-Mo uses....I'd be willing to pony up the unsubsidized price (again) for a new phone.
I just canceled ALL services I have with AT&T.
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Cheese Rations said 2:53PM on 8-31-2009
It's not going to be Verizon.
Do you really think Apple is going to make a CDMA iPhone for just a couple of years as the details of LTE are worked out, then create an entirely separate phone to then work with that network? That seems really dumb.
Isn't the iPhone's multi-carrier support in other countries limited to providers that all use GSM (most of them anyway)? If so, this makes it even less likely that it would be Verizon.
As cool as it would be to have it on Verizon, why would Apple start manufacturing CDMA phones now just to have to completely redesign them in a couple of years to work with LTE?
T-Mobile seems more likely to me, especially since T-Mobile's already offers support for users with iPhones (http://www.tuaw.com/2009/05/07/t-mobile-supporting-iphone-yep/).
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Ben Carroll said 3:33PM on 8-31-2009
Because they wouldn't have to. Verizon will always be CDMA. Besides ATT is moving to LTE also.
But if they did manufacture a CDMA iPhone it wouldn't be just restricted to the US many other countries have CDMA providers which would just make iPhone market share grow.
Scotty said 5:55PM on 8-31-2009
Ben knows the score.
Also, if Apple released a CDMA model it would better leverage itself in quite a few countries markets. For example: Currently, Apple can only partner with 2 GSM networks in the US.
If it released a CDMA model then it would at least 4 or 5 carriers, to say the least to compete with for business.
The result would be a better contract for Apple and hopefully better rate plan for customer.
We should ALL be praying for a CDMA iPhone.
Nuff said.
JaceFace said 2:55PM on 8-31-2009
I hate it when the forum posters know significantly more tech specs than the post author does.
I don't know shit about how phones work, but I feel significantly more comfortable with the explanations of the first few posters than I do with the vague predictions/reporting of the story.
Thanks knowledgeable posters!!!!!
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Scotty said 4:57PM on 8-31-2009
I agree, most of the comments are usually more helpful than the blog itself. That's why read TUAW.
Apparently, Steven doesn't quite grasp the significance of CDMA.
Though I do think some of the posters here have it a bit wrong. Why wouldn't Apple release a CDMA iPhone to the world's nearly half a Billion subscribers? Given that Apple was able to switch their entire Mac line from PowerPC to Intel should point to the fact that anything is possible.
How hard is it to redesign and implement a new network chip and get FCC approval? It's only one phone, not a myriad of cell phones like Nokia nor even close to the magnitude of switching an entire hardware and software platform.
JaceFace said 5:04PM on 8-31-2009
True true. It seems like Apple is pretty bottom-line savvy, so I'm sure they'll make phones for whomever it makes sense to do so.
But I suppose that's the whole point of providing a speculative post, so that commenters can provide speculative comments. And, obviously, it's working, so jokes on us, I guess.
Scotty said 6:09PM on 8-31-2009
True again.
It not always that Apple makes something just because its cool. Quite often they find something that can be profitable and bring the cool to it. Like the iPhone.
If they determine that CDMA could be profitable, they'll bring the iPhone to it.
Cy Starkman said 11:39PM on 8-31-2009
Perhaps because the other 6 billion people are on GSM variants, not CDMA.
Perhaps because Qualcomm extracts excessive licensing fees for using CDMA.
Perhaps because CDMA/EVDO Rev A is not a "going forwards" technology.
Perhaps because serving a couple of carriers is not good business sense when you can serve most of the carriers with one model.
Perhaps because of issues with multitasking using the CDMA/EVDO Rev A, such that voice/data at once isn't a go (or so I have read).
Perhaps because the only people on earth complaining about the lack of a CDMA/EVDO version of the iPhone are Sprint / Verizon clients in the USA.
Scotty said 4:14PM on 9-03-2009
The US only makes up 40% of the world CDMA market. India and Brazil are the other two major markets, and they are growing.
Perhaps its because you don't know any other languages that you don't hear people complain?