Gene Munster: iPhone on multiple U.S. carriers in 2010
Gene Munster, the Piper Jaffrey senior research analyst who usually hits the nail on the head when it comes to Apple forecasts, thinks that Apple will move to multiple U.S. carriers within the next year. He believe that this will happen next summer, which has been the time when Apple has introduced new models of the iPhone.Munster noted that having multiple carriers in a market has helped Apple to achieve greater success in terms of market penetration. He pointed to France as an example; originally, Apple inked an exclusive arrangement with Orange. When it moved to a multi-carrier deal, Apple's market share in France jumped to about the 40 percent range. In the U.S., the iPhone's market share is only in the mid-teens.
Many industry pundits expect the next iPhone carrier to be Verizon, since they are beginning a transition to a new, iPhone-compatible 4G network (LTE) in the next year. This would make the transition rather simple for Apple, since they wouldn't have to design an EV-DO iPhone, but instead just use the current hardware design.
Update: Per TUAW reader Ben C., the Verizon 4G transition is not expected to be completed until 2013. In addition, a CDMA-based iPhone would need to be deployed for Verizon. Thanks for the correction and explanation.
[via LoopInsight]
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Gene Munster, the Piper Jaffrey senior research analyst who usually hits the nail on the head when it comes to Apple forecasts, thinks that...
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Between Verizon and Sprint, there are ~130 million subscribers. If Apple struck deals with both and sold new CDMA iPhones to only 10% of these people in the next 2 years would it be worth it? In fact how many currently disgusted iPhone users on AT&T would switch immediately to Verizon (or even Sprint)? 1-2 million, or maybe more? So, assuming the margin on each iPhone sold is pretty decent, it would pretty dumb for Apple to leave that money on the table much longer wouldn't it? If HTC and RIM can manufacture CDMA and GSM variants of their phones so easily, surely Apple has the operational smarts to do so too? This doesn't even factor in the potential for CDMA customers in China, Japan, and India.....
September 07 2009 at 4:29 PM Report abuse Permalink rate up rate down ReplyRealistic wide LTE deployment is still 2-3 years down the road. What wacky analyst think Apple would jump the gun to put something not used anywhere else in iPhone? Exclusive Verizon Wireless edition? That's not the way Apple does their business. LOL
September 01 2009 at 2:25 PM Report abuse Permalink rate up rate down Replynothing could move me away from the iPhone faster than them going to the WORST cell provider EVER in verizon (unless of course they go with multiple providers as this article purports, then ill stay with AT&T till someone OTHER than verizon comes along)
September 01 2009 at 12:24 PM Report abuse Permalink rate up rate down ReplyAll Apple would need to do is switch up the frequencies they use and they have T-Mobile 3G. Right now, they only offer 850, 1900, 2100MHz frequencies over UMTS, but they can get a quad-band UMTS chip in there (if it's not in there already but just forcibly disabled via firmware) and they're ready to roll with T-Mobile's expanding 3G network, as well as with other carriers like Canada's upcoming Wind Mobile (letting Apple get rid of its other atrocious North American carrier, Rogers).
THAT is the simpler solution, THAT is the easy answer. And you know T-Mobile would market "we got the iPhone, suck it" angle night and day to make sure that their market share grows.
R2Dver2 comes with intrinsic dual-PCP receptors that help maximize LIAF transmissions. Paid this with CDMA and GSM and we'd have s lot more acronyms to use.
September 01 2009 at 1:25 AM Report abuse Permalink rate up rate down ReplyIn Australia the iPhone is now available on every carrier (only one was missing last year with the 3G), so now you can buy it unlocked and outright from the Apple Store online.
The uptake of iPhone in AU has also been massive, with the multiple carriers literally falling over each other to offer the best data deals etc. Well almost all of them are, Telstra doesn't care at all, but then they have the network and the 850Mhz frequency vs the 900Mhz the rest offer, so users on their network can iPhone away nearly anywhere where the rest are generally restricted to the larger population centres.
Verizon? Ugh. Apple, team up with Sprint.
August 31 2009 at 6:22 PM Report abuse Permalink rate up rate down ReplyHow about if Apple had a CDMA phone ready, we'd all know about it because they'd have to get FCC approval first?
August 31 2009 at 4:03 PM Report abuse Permalink rate up rate down Reply@ben
Last time I checked they were still locking down the GPS's in phones from 3rd party apps in devices like the Storm. They are still very much controlling what goes on in the Phone UI (although so is AT&T with the while MMS debacle)
It also may be worth noting that Verizon REALLY likes to control the software that is on their phone, right down to the look of the UI. I'd be surprised if Apple went ahead and revamped the iPhone UI just for Verizon.
It is possible however and it makes sense for Apple to want more business to come their way. Perhaps we will see several different versions of the iPhone for ALL providers.
By next year however the iPhone may have lost some luster. The phone itself essentially hasn't changed, design wise. Sure software and hardware has changed but not the design itself. Perhaps the iPhone Classic will be on all providers and we can expect something new next year.
You are refering to their dumb phones. Unlike dumbphones verizon doesn't like to mess with smartphone UIs to much. They may change the colors here and there but thats about it NOW. They used to lock down their smarphones. So anyway the iPhone will still look the same and function the same wether it be on ATT, Verizon, or Sprint.
August 31 2009 at 3:27 PM Report abuse Permalink rate up rate down ReplySteve Jobs would never allow Apple software to be revamped. Giving iTunes as an app to Motorola early on was not a bad idea, but that even failed fairly quickly.
Apple could license it's technology or hardware to another vendor, but history hasn't shown that to be profitable for Apple.
You could say that the iPhone design is getting stale. But by that token you would be saying that Apples laptop design (which has remained the same since before the Pismo really) is stale also, which isn't true. There is a reason why such things as jeans and 4 door sedans are typically the same since conception, they simply fit a physical environment that rarely changes (except for Americans enter: SUVs. Sedans for fatter people.)
The iPhone design will essentially remain the same. The software, chip speed, RAM, display and connectivity will be the advancements. Just like laptops. Or at least an inclusion of a flip phone, which I guess would be the equivalent of a netbook? Ok, I'll stop now...
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