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TUAW bloggers post their Apple predictions for 2010

by Steven Sande Dec 31st 2009 at 9:00PM

It's the end of another calendar year, which can mean only two things. First, every blog is going to be posting lists of 2009 retrospectives, and second, there are going to be a lot of posts filled with completely off-target predictions for 2010.

So that we're not leaving our readership sitting in the dark wondering what the TUAW bloggers are prognosticating for the next year, here are our wild guesses well-researched and intelligent predictions for Apple in 2010. Enjoy 'em, and from all of us at TUAW, have a safe and happy New Year's Eve and Day.

Steve Sande
  1. Big DUH! The Apple Tablet arrives. There are way too many hints flying around the blogosphere for this to be a non-product for another year. It's gotta happen!
  2. The Apple TV disappears from the Apple lineup. I hates it, I does. It just doesn't seem like an Apple product.
  3. iPhone moves to multiple US carriers, but not Verizon. Why? Wrong network for a world (read GSM) phone, and I think Apple is probably irritated with Verizon's Droid and their advertising.
  4. Apple closes some low-producing Apple Stores. The economy is still bad, and there have to be some locations with stores that aren't pulling their weight.
  5. Apple buys Dropbox, BackBlaze, and Evernote, makes MobileMe useful. Dropbox for better and faster folder syncing between devices, BackBlaze for external backups to the cloud, Evernote just because it's cool. Add 'em all together and what do you have? Something that's really worth paying $99 a year for. Apple definitely has the cash to buy these services.
  6. The Apple TV reappears in the Apple lineup as a high-quality autostereoscopic 3DTV with TiVo, Slingbox, and Boxee functionality built in. I can dream, can't I?
Erica Sadun

I'm hoping this will be the year of the tablet. Of course, I've been anticipating the year of the tablet since, oh say, around 1993 or so. Apple's future isn't about the hardware though, and it's not about their OS line: it's about their ability to deliver media. I'm thinking "iTunes gone large". Apple's Lala acquisiition, rumored TV deals, and possible textbook distribution agreements point to a renewed focus on content delivery devices.

Admittedly, Apple TV has never really evolved into its promise, perhaps due to areas into which Apple was not able to expand due to licensing deals with companies with Cable/Broadband interests but the iPhone has gone above and beyond in the media realm. So do I see a tablet (or a line of tablet devices) as a natural extension of the Apple content store? Absolutely. Will we see it this year? Possibly. Will it be early this year? Hard to say. Ask me again in a month.
Michael Rose

The tablet, yes, there will be one, it will be spectacular, and about three months after introduction it will drop in price by $200. People who bought the original version would be annoyed except they're so giddy from having had a piece of the future in their knapsacks for three months.

We'll see Apple get serious about cloud services by buying a company that's doing online storage right (Dropbox guys, don't make your numbers unlisted) and creating a capability that will actually rival some of the more effective platforms out there. Apple needs a Microsoft Mesh-like solution to really unlock the portable power of its devices. Then again, the tablet.

2010 will be the year that hackintoshes become more than a distraction and a legal burden. The Psystar battle shows that Apple knows there's risk, and sooner or later the netbooks-on-OS-X market will collide with the business realities of Apple's day to day operations. Then again, the tablet.

We'll see a secondary carrier for the iPhone in the US (yay!). It will not be Verizon (darn!), it will be T-Mobile. The Verizon iPhone is a 2011 phenomenon, but by then the prevalence of portable Wi-Fi and VoIP solutions for mobile will start to scratch away at the cellphone market's power. Then again, the tablet.

Mac OS X 10.7 will return us to 'new features' land; we'll learn about it at WWDC and see it by 2011.

Mel Martin
  1. There will be a tablet. Even though Steve Jobs said Apple wasn't working on one, remember he also denied the iPhone was coming for a long time too. There seems to be a crescendo of stories about the tablet (i-Slate, i-Pad, whatever) and that's a pretty good indication something is on the way.
  2. Changes to MobileMe. Maybe cheaper, certainly some new features. The system has come a long way, but it can hardly be called reliable, and I think for the money it needs more features and/or a lower price. The notification system could use some improving as well. When things go down it seems to take an awfully long time for Apple support to post something about it.
  3. A new AppleTV. I think something is likely, something beyond the current hardware/software. I like my AppleTV, but it is still feature poor and very limited in sources for video. Apple should get something a bit more interesting out, or hang this product out to dry.
  4. Blu-ray. Originally Apple was a big proponent of this hi-rez video disc. Now, not so much. I expect Apple will have to start adding Blu-ray to desktops and laptops, maybe even to the AppleTV. Sure there have been some licensing cost issues, but others are getting past it and offering it on windows based hardware. Come on Apple, get with it.
  5. Apple will get 'Back to my Mac' working. It was a highly touted feature of MobileMe, but for a large population of Mac users, it simply doesn't work. Hard to get excited about a feature I pay for and can't use. Other applications seem to be able to solve these router and security issues. Back to my Mac should just work.
  6. A new iPhone. The easiest prediction of all to make. They seem to come out like clockwork, and force many of us to ditch our older models and re-up with our favorite carrier.
  7. Speaking of favorite carriers, I think Apple will finally end AT&T exclusivity. Apple's image has taken a beating over AT&T service and support. The world's best smartphone shouldn't be stuck on the world's worst network. I think Apple will change this.
  8. Apple market share will continue to increase. Apple users are generally happy users, and Apple users tend to be evangelical about their experiences. In both the U.S., and around the globe, I expect Apple to increase share of laptops, desktops, iPhones and following on that, OS share.
  9. Apple will move more services to the 'cloud'. MobileMe is certainly there, iWork looks like it is heading that direction as well. Microsoft and Google have ambitious cloud-based designs, so it's an easy prediction, and a likely outcome.
  10. Most predictions will be wrong. There's something about predicting the future. Things take unexpected turns and don't come out exactly as planned. The film '2001' is really dated, and 'Space 1999', well, it looks pretty silly today. My favorite bad prediction? The GM produced film [YouTube Video link] done for the 1939 World's Fair that predicted the sixties. My, what a miss.
Michael Grothaus
  1. The iPod classic will be no more. By September 2010 the iPod touch will have a max capacity of 128GB, making the iPod classic look archaic and redundant. The iPod lineup will solely consist of 'iPod touch' and 'iPod' – the former 'iPod nano' that maxes out at 32GB.
  2. The iSlate is announced in January, followed by a mid-year product launch. The iSlate will make the iPhone look 2005. It will have multi-touch on front and back of the device.
  3. Sometime during the year there will be an interesting anecdote about Steve Jobs showing the iSlate to a famous industrial designer (no, not Johnny Ive) this past December whom Jobs then attempted to call a cab for when the designer was leaving Jobs' "modest" home. The industrial designer will tell how Jobs, the most creative tech genius on the planet, had trouble calling a cab from his home phone.
  4. Apple (AAPL) stock will hit $300 a share and the stock will do a 2-for-1 split.
  5. The iPhone will be the #1 smartphone in the world by a wide margin by December 2010. Blackberry will be #2, and the Google Phone will be a distant third. Palm isn't even a blip on the radar.
  6. 'The iSlate will bomb.' Or so will say numerous tech CEOs who will bemoan its 'limited appeal'. They will all be wrong. And though the iSlate won't kill it until 2011, the Kindle will be handed its hat at the door in 2010.
  7. Apple will partner with Visa and Mastercard for turning your iPhone into a swipe credit card using the 4th gen iPhone's RFID chip.
  8. iLife 2010 will replace iDVD with 'iLP'. iLP will allow users to easily created iTunes LP albums which they can instantly upload to MobileMe for download onto their friends and families new AppleTVs.
  9. The new AppleTV will have the cable companies quaking in their pants. Steve Jobs wants to do for the broadcast industry what he did for the music, movie, mobile, and publishing industries.
  10. 32" LED Cinema Display.
  11. iPhone: Two more US carriers, one of them Verizon. OLED screen and new industrial design that takes lessons from the iSlate. iPhone OS 4.0. Expect to see a multi-touch surface on the iPhone that is not part of the screen.
  12. iTunes Store: another late-year redesign to help facilitate making app search easier. Tabbed browsing. Apps top 200,000.
Mike Schramm

I think we'll finally see the iTablet this year, but it'll be much closer to an iPhone or a Kindle than a traditional tablet computer, with complete App Store integration and a relatively limited UI. The iPhone will finally be released to multiple carriers, T-Mobile first among them. And Apple will focus on cloud services -- they'll host your music and documents online whenever you want them, accessible from all your Apple devices and/or Apple software.

What, those aren't out-on-a-limb enough for you? The Mac Pro will get a major update, possibly even a rebranding. The Apple TV will start running App Store apps. And the iPod touch will finally get a camera.

Victor Agreda, Jr.

Apparently the tablet is a forgone conclusion, so I'll just say that the tablet is just the beginning... I predict that Apple's tablet move will nearly cement its reign in the digital home of tomorrow. Apple will begin partnering with companies such as LG, KitchenAid and others to bring integration into the kitchen, the spare room, etc. The tablet ecosystem and 3rd-party markets will soon resemble the iPod ecosystems from just a few years ago. Remember the iPod dock with built-in toilet paper dispenser? Prepare yourself for a mirror with enough transparency so you can shave AND read your iTablet at the same time.

Apple will also spend 2010 getting into the cloud like never before. iWork, iTunes and iLife will be the first to get online application, further hooks and functionality. But at WWDC Apple will announce 10.7 and some "really amazing" features that leverage the power of the internet with the power of their OS. Online backups? Yes, and probably something new and a little bit innovative to deal with what is now at least a decade for many of us with digital cameras... You didn't think iPhoto's crappy behavior when confronted by huge libraries would go on forever, did you?

Speaking of data management, depending on which winds the wireless ones blow, Apple may tie ever more services from app makers to its own cloudy ambitions. Look for some ad-fueled functionality to be provided free to tablet and iPhone users, and for announcements regarding iPhone on other networks... Plus look for some needed upgrades to the iPhone OS itself. Apple isn't dumb enough to ignore the jailbreak community and many of the awesome, time-saving tweaks found there. PogoPlank is one example and Stacks is another. Why can't I see the weather without unlocking my phone? Fixing things like this will put an end to some of the "Droid Does" nonsense.


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It's the end of another calendar year, which can mean only two things. First, every blog is going to be posting lists of 2009...
 

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34skyline

LED Displays for desktops especially the 30 inch needs to be updated to LED and have special adapters so that users with older GPU's can use the LED Display also

January 09 2010 at 2:18 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
fry

The Apple tablet will not "kill" the Kindle (I wish we could all move on from referring to kill/killing/killer/ in gadgets, btw). The niche that the Kindle fills is not one that will be overrun by a more expensive backlight-based tablet. The Kindle's appeal is entirely in e-ink screen, the Amazon book buying, and its mobility - both in being small and thin and rarely needing a charge. The tablet cannot have those qualities, except for being thin.

So if we consider the Kindle to have any sort of appeal, it will not loose that appeal with the launch of a tablet. I think you'd be hard pressed to find a majority of people who want to give up paper books, and give up on their readability.

Just look at how ingrained the "I love my physical books" idea is. You think a less reading-oriented device can deal with that better than the Kindle?

January 03 2010 at 11:02 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Jason

10.7 mentioned in 2010? No way, maybe announced next year, and maybe released in 2012. /Maybe/. Snow Leopard came out not even 6 months ago. You really think they're ALREADY going to milk another whole OS upgrade nonsense out of their users? No way.
Not even Apple would try to justify TWO NEW OS releases within a rolling 2 year span. Who cares that it was so cheap. Announcing 10.7 this soon would really mean that 10.6 should have been 10.5.9...


If anything changes with the AppleTV other than internal specs, I feel it will go away, because it can't leverage the apps App Store (multi-touch remote in absence of a straight screen? no way). I doubt Apple would concede to the "way things are", and leverage the changes coming to CableCard, the whole point is to get away from the unnecessary nonsense.

I feel it will survive, for the sole point of media and the WebTV crowd.


Apple putting the iPhone on T-Mobile seems like such a joke. You think Verizon is pounding AT&T with their "incapable" 3G commercials? Think about T-Mobile...
I loved the Sidekick, and I HATED T-Mobile. I despised "2.5G" and how much they touted it.

I'm not saying the iPhone won't work on T-Mobile, because more options = better. But there's no way Apple will trump up: "Our exclusivity is dead, hello T-Mobile overlords!". What a joke that'd be. Not even Steve "Spinmaster" Jobs himself could spin out of that joke.

Sure, their prices are lower, and that's fine for people who want it. So turn the iPhone into a /generic/ GSM phone. But don't expect Apple to profile their capability to run on T-Mobile. Absolutely ludicrous idea.


I'm not sold on Blu-Ray, every BR title also giving you a DVD and usually a download voucher as well kinda tells the tale about BR as a whole. We'll see what happens with BR3D. Avatar may just be the killer app to FINALLY push Blu-Ray into adoption.


R.I.P iPod Classic. That NEEDS to happen. The value add of apps alone is well worth it. Agreed though, not until the Touch Capacity exceeds that of the Classic.


GOOG hasn't split their stocks yet, have they? I doubt Apple will anytime soon.


The every June iPhone release will be eclipsed by the tablet this year. The fastest iPhone ever is fast enough given the current state of things. What else could they do? (They could surprise me, I guess.) A continual bump in capacity isn't enough, and 4G is way too far away still.

Then again... higher resolution, better screen, higher megapixel camera... hmm. We'll see. I'd still put my chips in the Tablet pool.

If anything, a new iPhone release will be regarding primarily a lack of exclusivity, and will do CDMA on Sprint, Verizon, anything. (And yes, it could run generally on T-Mobile GSM, just... don't expect T-Mo to be more than a footnote/mention in the hoorah.)


Apple will tout credit card processing like they touted Medical Apps and hardware. It will be capable, and mentioned. But why does it need an RfID chip? RFID != Swipe...
I suppose it would need a chip to process RFID enabled Credit Cards, but the way M.G. worded this prediction was odd.


On the flip side, Michael, iDVD -> iLP is a very, VERY good idea! Well said.


VIctor:
Apple is more than capable of ignoring the Jailbreak community.
PogoPlank is a space killing design, but Stacks looks nice. Apple doesn't have to nod to the jailbreak community to implement that, given that it's their own Desktop OS feature...



My own prediction?
iTunes will finish it's transition to be generally available on the Web as far as browsing is concerned. The store in viewing aspects will not require a desktop app (hello Linux users!). More than likely, /purchases/ will call iTunes to open, though. But the web interface will become a glorified directory for iTunes Store content.

iTunes Desktop will of course still exist for iPhone management, media management/playback, media serving (ala. Home Sharing), and again, as mentioned before, the actual purchasing step.

January 02 2010 at 3:43 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
1 reply to Jason's comment
alex cutter

zzzzzzzzzzzz

January 02 2010 at 11:08 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Broo

Ok, I will be a nay-sayer; the 'iSlate' will probably be announced, but it will not take the world by storm. If the specs are true, it will be insanely expensive and not be in the same market as the kindle. Color magazine subscriptions sounds cool, but who will pay $1000 for a tablet + a yearly magazine subscription (when most of the same content is free online)?

If the tablet is paired with a data plan, who wants another $40/month contract? or, if not- who wants to pay full apple tax for an unsubsidized device?

The iSlate will be cool, but it will be like the 1st gen iPhones; only the uber-rich will be able to afford them. This is also the same reason that MacBook have not 'taken the world by storm'; they are very nice, very decent features, great OS- but they start at $1000- and go up to over $2500 (for a friggin' laptop?).

Also remember that the Tablet is not a new idea; the PC versions of these came out in 2003 and you can still pickup a Toshiba or HP version today.

January 02 2010 at 2:41 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
fresenius

I hope Apple finally put HDMI outputs in their computers. I find it annoying that there's no easy way to play a movie from your $1000 laptop on your HDTV.

January 01 2010 at 4:56 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Daniel

OMG! That YouTube video from the World's Fair is just precious! A reminder that human arrogance and ignorance of history will probably always be with us. Y'all seem to have none of the above, though. Very interesting predictions.

January 01 2010 at 3:28 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
jbrown510

WOW! How incredibly myopic the bloggers here are... Not one mention of MacBooks or MBPs? New processors anyone? New connectivity choices (USB 3, FW 3000, light peak). An unexpected product perhaps (mouse, camera, keyboard, NAS)... New Xserve?

These aren't predictions as much as they are a rumor wrap up from the last 3 months.

Seriously I hope there is MORE to 2010 than just the tablet and maybe a second iPhone carrier for the US.

January 01 2010 at 12:38 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Matt

I don't think I read it in this post, but there has been some traction recently on Apple offering a movie, tv, and music streaming service for a flat monthly fee. I'd pay $35/month for my broadband connection, and another $35/month for the ability to stream any movie, tv show or music I want. Apple will have the same trouble with offering new movies as Netflix does, but we'll definitely see tv shows and music through a streaming model.

Apple should have bought Plaxo a couple years ago for their "MobileMe" syncing that instead went bust. But Apple is content with just sitting on their billions of cash. They won't buy Evernote or Dropbox this year, even though they should.

Mac OS 11 is three years out, but if they are to continue to fight Google and their Chrome and Android operating systems, they better start thinking ahead with cloud based computing. (Microsoft is already doomed.) If Apple gets its act together, OS 11 will include features like Evernote, Dropbox, Yojimbo, Google Docs, and integration of Mail, iCal, and To Do List into the OS.


January 01 2010 at 11:58 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Josh

They should just drop the AppleTV and release the OS interface as the new FrontRow (which is pretty obsolete as well nowadays). This would allow them to market their Mac mini line as an easy HTPC, perhaps throwing a Mini-Display Port-to-HDMI/DVI adapter as a free upgrade if the user so chooses. This would make sense to me, at least.

January 01 2010 at 11:22 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Bernie

Verizon Wireless WILL get the iPhone late 2nd quarter of 2010. Those that don't think they will are being naive. Millions more iPhone customers can be had by having multiple carriers.

January 01 2010 at 10:29 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
1 reply to Bernie's comment
Tom Craft

Apple has been known to hold their ground before. I wouldn't be shocked at all to see them go to Sprint. Its the same technical hurdles as Verizon, but Sprint would probably do anything Apple asked to save their ship, and it would still give all the AT&T haters an alternate. Remember that Verizon was given the chance first, and they declined it. That plus the current Droid ads and I'll be rather surprised if Apple goes to Verizon.

Though Apple could just release it for all US carriers at once.

January 03 2010 at 12:48 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
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