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Post-keynote TUAW prediction scorecard: How did we do?

Yesterday we pooled our predictions together to try and predict what would happen at the iPad presentation today. How did we all do?

Sang Tang:


Sang was the closest in terms of the iPad's screen size -- 9.6" prediction vs. 9.7" actual size. However, the iPad has neither wireless HDMI nor a front-facing camera (or, indeed, a camera of any kind). Score: 1/3.

Erica Sadun:

Erica was off on screen size, but was correct in predicting that the iPad would look and function much like an iPod touch. However, by all appearances the iPad doesn't add any new revolutionary gestures, and without a camera of any kind, any augmented reality applications are going to be very limited in scope. She was correct in saying there'd be no "mind-blowing new tech onboard" and optional nationwide wireless with a monthly fee. Score: 3/5.

David Winograd:

David was also off on screen size (though just barely), cameras, and new gestures. He was correct in predicting a keyboard dock and an optional data plan, but wrong about iPhone tethering and iPhone OS 4.0. Score: 2/7.

More scores and the TUAW total after the break!

Steve Sande:

It was a safe bet that no one would be completely happy with the iPad. Jokes are flying all over the internet just on account of its name, after all. Steve also (presumably) nailed the PA Semi-designed chipset, 64 GB capacity, 802.11n, optional 3G, an iTunes bookstore, next-gen iWork, and his prediction that most of our tea-leaf reading would be wrong. He was more than half an inch off on screen size, though, and the iPad doesn't appear to use a Pixel Qi screen. There's also no 128 GB capacity model, no universal remote app, and no iLife 2010. Score: 8/13.

Dave Caolo:

Dave was correct that Apple would intro and demo the tablet, that it would have access to the iTunes store, that the gaming angle would be emphasized, e-reader capabilities, and no mention of the iPhone. He was off in his predictions of the screen size, that the iPad would "work in a way none of us have guessed," a web-based iWork, iLife '10, and streaming $0.99 TV shows. Score: 5/10.

Mike Schramm:

Like most of us, Mike was just barely off on screen size, and he was slightly off on price. On app store compatibility, media partnerships, lack of camera and dynamic touch keyboard, the iPad basically being a bigger iPod touch, and a possible 3G connection, Mike was dead-on, although he was incorrect that you can set up with whatever provider you want; sadly, just like the iPhone, the iPad's 3G is chained to AT&T in the States... for now. There was no Verizon iPhone announced, although Mike did say they might be saving it for next year, so no points either way. Score: 6/9.

Mel Martin:

Mel was correct about the iPad's focus on publishing, and Wi-Fi with optional 3G. He also nailed the scaled-up iPhone games and iTunes integration. He was correct about the iPad being able to pair with a Bluetooth keyboard, but it won't pair with a mouse. Score: 5/6.

Megan Lavey:

Megan's "left-field" prediction that the "tablet" would be more of a software platform than a hardware platform was incorrect. The iPad is also not part of the MacBook line, nor does it replace the white MacBook. It's also nothing like "a cross between a MacBook and a really big Nintendo DS." Score: 0/4.

Aron Trimble:

At the time of this writing, Aron is correct in his prediction that Apple's stock price wouldn't drop post-event, although the stock price did dip during the event, and the price has been on a roller coaster all morning. Score: 1/1.

Lauren Hirsch:

Lauren was correct in predicting a focus on the New York Times, and the majority of her analysis of the e-reader capabilities of the iPad was right on the money. She was off-base in predicting streaming TV and the iPad being positioned as a replacement for the low-end MacBook. Score: 2/4.

Chris Rawson:

A lot of commenters on the predictions post seemed to think that my predictions were very close to the mark. Well, you guys should really stop listening to me, because I was almost completely wrong. Steve didn't talk about Mac sales at all, nor did he announce any updates to the Mac portable lineup. iPhone OS 4.0 wasn't announced or demoed, there was no mention of app multitasking (BOO!), and there was no "one more thing" regarding Verizon wireless being on-board with either the iPad or iPhone. I also got the screen size, thickness, and the name of the product wrong; the iSlate is dead. Long live the iPad. My pricing was close to the mark, but not close enough for me to give myself points on this one, because not only did I fail to account for different GB capacities, I also assumed that the 3G version of the iPad would be subsidised by carriers. There was no musical guest. And my future as a financial analyst has ended in its infancy: I was wrong about all three of the stock prices I predicted, because as of the time of this writing, Apple and AT&T's stocks are up, while Verizon's has lost over 1% of its value.

Did I actually get anything right? The iPad does sort of look like a steamrolled version of the first-gen iPhone, and it will run iPhone apps right out of the box in fullscreen, although there is no "windowed mode" like I predicted. Steve did spend at least 20 minutes just sitting in his chair showing off the iPad's features, and I got the launch date right. My easiest prediction to make was also the most correct: PC World has indeed posted a snark-filled article about the iPad, claiming that it's "just a big iPod touch." Score: 5/22

Aggregated TUAW prediction score: 38/86 (44%)


So who wins the TUAW office pool?

Aron Trimble got 100% of his predictions right, but he only made one. Mel Martin wins percentage-wise, with 83% of his 6 predictions being correct. However, with eight correct predictions, Steve Sande had the most correct predictions. I'd say that between Mel, Mike Schramm, and Steve's predictions, we got closest to what was actually announced today.

On the other end of the pool, the shallow end if you will: although Megan Lavey didn't get any of her four predictions correct, I'm still giving the TUAW Duncecap Award to myself. I made a lot of predictions that sounded perfectly reasonable yesterday, but I was wrong about almost all of them, and with 17 incorrect predictions, I brought our aggregated score down by a lot.

Was your crystal ball any clearer than ours? Let us know in the comments.

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