Analysts project iPad sales

I carry a netbook and, because its battery doesn't last long enough for me to read for long periods, also an eReader. I use an iPhone, too.

I've got more bored with the iPhone as the year has gone on, probably because I can't use it very well for office tasks or reading (I have tried every app but the small screen and multiple OS restrictions spoil the experience). I haven't gone to a different phone because I feel I've invested in a worthwhile series of dictionary and language-learning apps which I am reluctant to lose.

If the iPad allowed me to compose documents properly I could substitute the netbook + eReader for an iPad, and I could transfer all my apps. However, I also need to keep pdfs or webpages open while writing, and the iPad can't do that. It just isn't practical for doing any real work.

Therefore, if I am tempted by the new wave of tablet devices this year, I'm more likely to wait till a PC manufacturer has something new to sell. As I represent the feelings of many computer users (rather than mere media consumers) who initially bought iPhones as a work tool, I don't see sales developing for the iPad along similar lines to the iPhone at all.

And contrary to the views expressed above, this doesn't make me a geek. The iPad is fantastic for people with a lot of leisure time, Windows 7 tablets probably go beyond that.

I think the biggest problem with those projections is that people are assuming that what was announced on Wednesday is exactly what people will get and nothing more. That's fine when evaluating whether or not you want to buy it, but if you're trying to project sales, you have to take into account unannounced upgrades, such as those contained within the imminent iPhone OS 4.0. Since no one knows what those are, making accurate projections at this point is fairly impossible.

When all of the pundits pronounce it a failure,
Blogging endlessly everywhere, "Nothing really to see here,"
"It's missing a webcam, it's missing some ports."
"It can't edit photos and it won't multi-task."
What they're actually saying, loudly and clearly,
"Look at me - I'm a geek - this doesn't speak to me."
Which, of course, is a GOOD thing, which means, in effect,
They'll sell just like hotcakes to everyone else!

I would really like for TUAW to create a @not-ipad tag. Let's all pick this up in 60 days.

@Dave

"He feels that Apple's prediction of 10 million units sold in 2010 won't be realized."

Apple never made any such prediction but the blog post doesn't even dispute or question the assumption.

I don't believe Apple has made any public sales estimate.

Count me in. The two I will be buying, one 64GB Wifi and one 64GB 3G will be among those first 4, 5, or 10 million iPads sold.

Just doing my part!!

I agree that the iPad has great potential in regards to all kinds of media consumption. I think the idea of a iMag store is flawed though. I think a better route would be for each magazine to publish through their own custom developed App. Each magazine could then establish their own way of presenting their content. I think if they all go through one storefront that would implicitly restrict them into the same presentation style and technique.

Though, honestly I could be mistaken.

We believe it would be too short-sighted to just look at the product Apple introduced last week. The iPad, from the name, its functionalities and how it will be used, is the new core of Apple who repositioned themselves from a Computer company to "the largest mobile devices company in the world". See more in our post on Unbound Edition: http://j.mp/cscEye

I think it will sell tons. Yeah, for the most part it is an iPod Touch with a bigger screen (as well as other features the Touch doesn't have), but people keep saying that like it is some sort of huge negative. The larger screen is exactly the point, folks. The iPhone and Touch are great on-the-go devices. Quick access to email, web,music, vids, etc. Dismissing the iPad as a Touch "with bigger screen" is entirely missing the point. But during leisure time, wouldn't people rather watch movies, read books, browse the internet, share photos on a 10" screen rather than a 3.5" and on a device that is more suited to people sitting in a recliner or in a coffee shop than a laptop? I think so.

The iPad identifies the primary tasks that users engage in with computers and packaged it in an appealing easy to use format. Will it sell? Yep.

Yep, the OS will evolve but the iPad is not going to be a "serious geek's tech tool." This is for media consuming and surfing and reading and watching movies.

I am really interested in replacing my acer netbook with the iPad. I don't mind using the Acer too much but I hate having to be careful of every link I click and program I install. I want to be able to grab something to take to meetings and take notes on, I hate taking notes on paper. I have to then re-write them in emails or estimates, etc..

I want to load Evernote on the iPad and use this thing like a netbook.