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Analyst: Apple will sell 35m iPhones next year, with or without Verizon

One of the questions that always seems to come up during our TUAW Talkcast and TUAW TV Live sessions is "When do you think Verizon Wireless is going to get the iPhone?" According to recent comments from Merrill Lynch analyst Scott Craig, the answer to that question is irrelevant to Apple.

Craig anticipates that Apple could sell 33 million iPhones in 2010, and that number would rise to 35 million in 2011 even without a second U.S. carrier. However, the upside to Apple in selecting a second U.S. carrier -- possibly Verizon Wireless -- is that the number of 2011 sales could rise to as high as 55 million.

Other Wall Street analysts believe that Apple's decision to stick by AT&T for the iPad indicates a vote of confidence for the carrier, with analysts at Credit Suisse even going so far as to say that there's a 75% chance that AT&T will keep iPhone exclusivity for another year.

While the analysts don't seem to see a real downside risk for Apple, Credit Suisse recently downgraded Verizon from Outperform to Neutral based on the absence of the iPhone from their product line. It would definitely be in Verizon's best interest to make an agreement with Apple to carry the iPhone; however, Apple is unlikely to make agreements with non-GSM carriers such as Verizon Wireless until they are well into a transition to the 4G LTE technology.

[via Cult of Mac]


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Apple iPhone

One of the questions that always seems to come up during our TUAW Talkcast and TUAW TV Live sessions is "When do you think Verizon Wireless...
 

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Darkseider

LOL. 35 Million iPhones? You do realize that that is nearly 3 million iPhones a month? As of Q1/2009 Apple sold nearly 18 million WORLDWIDE. That's 2 years and 18 million sold. This joker is predicting it will sell nearly 2x the amount it did in 2 years in ONE year? LOL! This is rich. Personally the iPhone is a dying product made for people who want to be in the "IN" crowd. Anroid, WebOS and even WinMo (6.5.x NOT WPS7) are much more robust and the devices they sit on much better in terms of quality and features as well.

April 01 2010 at 1:44 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Rudy

why do you think verizon has so many iphone clones, their customers want an iPhone-like device. i think it would perform extremely well on verizon.

March 07 2010 at 4:27 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
1 reply to Rudy's comment
Darkseider

Because they know there is something else other than the iPhone that is worth a damned? Palm Pre / Pre-Plus, Droid, Incredible, Eris are all leaps and bounds beyond an iPhone in terms of quality, features and operating systems. The only thing iPhone has going for it is the "me too" factor and marketing. Nothing else.

April 01 2010 at 1:52 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
W Park

I switched off AT&T and went to Verizon as I am a surgeon and my phone is "mission critical." Verizon offers a microcell extender that gives me a cell tower in the house. I chose the HTC Touch Pro2 over Droid as I didn't want to start collecting Droid apps. Rather, TP2 can run Walking Hotspot, which turns the TP2 into a mobile Wifi router, allowing me to use iPhone and all the wonderful apps including my golf GPS apps. Using my laptop in the car (with someone else driving) is great. HTC does a reasonable job at hiding all the Windows Mobile ugliness, but WinMo does reach out and grab you every once in a while with inexplicable behavior requiring a reboot (by removing the battery). That said, I only need to do it about two or three times a week.

The voice quality is acceptable, but the standout feature is the strong bars all over the place.

Verizon is draconian in keeping control over its phones to the point of making them barely usable. The Verizon GPS app is annoying and nonintuitive. There really is no app store -just a web page. Getting the Walking Hotspot app from Handango took 30 minutes of cajoling. If Apple puts iPhone on Verizon, Verizon will have to be willing to take orders.

I may go back to AT&T when if it gets its act together. It's sin is a broken promise, but it has 21 months to redeem itself.

March 07 2010 at 4:04 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
artifex

Isn't it true that with CDMA phones right now, your serial for your phone gets removed from the database by your provider if you cancel service, and you can't add other phones to your account, so you couldn't have a market for used CDMA iPhones?

This sort of restriction is one of the things that has kept me with GSM providers since my very first cellphone 10 years ago. Yeah, I know, I change my phone every 3 years or so anyway, but it's still a big deal. That, and Verizon used to be known as the big bad company who would lock down just about everything on phones anyway. (AT&T has that rap, now)

March 07 2010 at 12:05 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
1 reply to artifex's comment
Level 5

False. I sold my Touch Pro to another Sprint customer before getting my Nexus One. She had zero issues activating it.

March 07 2010 at 2:35 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Level 5

I've said it before and I'll say it again on TUAW, a CDMA smartphone of any kind wipes out one of the key benefits of said smartphone. And I don't think Apple wants this lack of functionality:

While on a call, your data shuts off.

Now, when I've told people this, they always tell me "oh big deal". But those same people either get CDMA penis envy or talk about how much they love the simultaneous connectivity when they do switch to GSM.

For example, you want a brand new song that just came out. You're pretty pumped to listen to it. You start the download, oh yeah, phone call. Not only does your download pause, it actually ends incomplete. So you'd have to restart said download if you ever get a voice call in the middle of it. On my CDMA smartphones I had the ability for an IM client in the background. This would reset EVERY TIME I had voice come in. That means a shit-ton of AOL System Msg telling me my phone is connected in multiple locations. For that matter, look to Apple's own commercials ("Can Your Phone and Your Network Do That?" for instance).

CDMA iPhone on VZW = meh
LTE iPhone on VZW = ZING!

Might as well just wait.

March 07 2010 at 10:46 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
1 reply to Level 5's comment
junkie

Same was true with the original iPhone. Not a big deal actually. Most people would never know to care.

March 07 2010 at 2:32 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Peter

The day after Verizon aired the ad attacking the iPhone I quit Verizon and went to AT&T. My coverage is much better and I'm happy I switched.

Attacking the iPhone seems like a backwards way to market a phone you plan to sell in the future.

David Griffiths, We also have T-Moblie, Sprint, Pocket, and Nextel. People hope Verizon gets the iPhone for the network and customer service. Verizon and AT&T used to be the same company until the government broke it up as a monopoly.

March 07 2010 at 8:35 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
1 reply to Peter's comment
David Griffiths

Thanks for the clarification Peter.

March 07 2010 at 2:12 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Ender

Let's see, my iPhone worked in every country I went to in the last 3 years that I've had it. Hmm, now why would I want a phone that doesn't do that? That's why I would never go with Verizon (or ).

Can you imagine Apple confusing the market with a phone that carries a warning: Does not work in the rest of the world! ?

March 06 2010 at 11:56 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
pika2000

Why are people still wishing for a CDMA iPhone? Get it over with. The world use GMS/UMTS. Apple likes high profit margin, streamline and efficient production/lineup, and marketshare. Spending $$$ just to make a model for 1 carrier in 1 country is probably not worth it, considering that now they have different things to focus on like the iPad.

March 06 2010 at 11:14 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
1 reply to pika2000's comment
Kleinias

It's not that US customers want a CDMA iPhone, so much as they want an iPhone on Verizon, and Verizon uses CDMA. I would also underscore that your average customer wants the iPhone on whatever network they choose to use, whether or not this is in Apple's best interests.

March 07 2010 at 5:44 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
FightTheFuture

i have a friend that bought a droid eris when it came out - i thought he would give a tech head bashing to the iPhone, but all he said was that he couldn't wait any longer for the iPhone to come to Verizon.

that being said, i think the majority of people who were waiting for the iPhone to come to their network, have probably already bought a Droid or Nexus One. and if the iPhone does come to Verizon, you'll see people leaving at&t in droves. the balance will probably be the same.

as long as the total cost of ownership for a smartphone is high, you'll see the same amount of iPhones sold with slow growth. i feel that that's why the iPod Touch is doing so well.

March 06 2010 at 10:37 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
2 replies to FightTheFuture's comment
Darkseider

Well I was with AT&T for almost 11 years (Cingular before AT&T bought them). Anyway I waited patiently for an Android phone and never wanted an iPhone. Then AT&T releases the Backflip and at that moment I switched to Verizon for a REAL Android phone, the Motorola Droid. Now that I have been using the Droid for almost a month 3 people in my office and 4 friends have dumped their iPhones and purchased new contracts with Verizon and purchased Droids. The OS and device are so far beyond what an iPhone is and can do it isn't even fair to compare them.

April 01 2010 at 1:50 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
FightTheFuture

i'm just a bit curious - do you think your four friends will switch back to the iPhone if the new iPhone OS is far beyond what a Droid phone is capable of?

i think there is a lot of parity between what users consider bleeding edge tech and what they are actually willing to do to 'always have it.'

April 01 2010 at 3:43 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Izzy

LTE will be the answer. There is no motivation to create a phone that only one carrier in the world can use (ok, three (Mexico and Costa Rica)). It's not cost effective from a manufacturing standpoint. This is just an opinion of course, but it seems to be true so far. I believe Verizon will get the iPhone when LTE becomes a reality.

March 06 2010 at 9:27 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
4 replies to Izzy's comment
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