Rising iSun: Thoughts on the iPad's prospects in Japan
Today's guest post is by Peter Payne, a longtime watcher of Apple's prospects in the Japanese markets. Peter is the proprietor of the Japanese pop-culture web shop jlist.com (some content NSFW). Apple's new iPad has gotten off to a great start and managed to impress a lot of reviewers, which is quite an achievement if you think back to the negative press that was being written about it immediately after Steve Jobs announced it in January. By all accounts, it seems to be a wonderful invention; perhaps it's the perfect "throw this in your bag for a weekend in Vegas" computer. Still, how the device will be received outside of the U.S. remains to be seen.
Take Japan, a country that I've lived in for nearly two decades. When the iPhone 3G was introduced two years ago, it got off to an extremely slow start. The shape and functionality were just too different for the Japanese, who prefer clamshell phones with physical numeric keypads. Due to an odd linguistic quirk of the Japanese language, it's actually faster to enter Japanese hiragana-based text using a numeric keypad than with a QWERTY keyboard, and -- I am not kidding here -- many best-selling novels are actually written using keitai denwa (mobile phones) with numeric keypads.
However, as time went by, a core of dedicated Japanese iPhone fans emerged and helped evangelize the device, mainly by showing their friends all of the newest apps that they'd downloaded, and the iPhone started to catch on in a big way. Even the popular boy band SMAP quit their contract sponsoring NTT Docomo's phones and signed on with Softbank, presumably so that they could help promote the iPhone. These days, though, iPhone's share of the smartphone market tops 46 percent, and attending one of Danny Choo's media events for hipster blogger types is like a miniature iPhone convention.
How about the revolutionary iPad, though? Will Japanese fans go for this new device? I have some experience with Apple and the Japan iTunes store -- on my site, we sell the prepaid cards that let people around the world access iTMS Japan's content -- so I'll look into my crystal ball and see what's in store for iPad.
Frankly, I'm not sure that the future is going to be all that rosy. First of all, if you thought the iPad name was an embarrassment, imagine how Japanese fans might feel about using a product with the same name (phonetically) as the Ai-Pad: a pad made by Awajitec with an electronic sensor that lets others know when old people have wet themselves. However, a bigger issue is the hostility that Apple has encountered when trying to "change the world" in a conservative place like Japan.
Despite the resounding success of the iTunes Music Store as a way to distribute music in the age of the Internet, it took years for Japan's major music companies to put their content into the system. Several still hold back, only posting new releases after they've sold in traditional outlets for a while. Sony still does its best to ignore the iPod and iTunes entirely, and won't let its artists' music be distributed through iTunes Japan except in a few cases. Clearly, Sony is still miffed about losing its Walkman crown. This harms no one but Sony's customers, who can find the music they want for free if they're so inclined.
This issue of not being able to get compelling content from Japanese publishers is likely to be more of a problem in the case of iPad, which some see as nothing more than a device for media consumption. Take a look at the iPad "features" page on Apple's Japanese website. In place of advertising the cool Hollywood movies that you can watch on the device you have, you'll find...video podcasts? There's no mention of iBooks, or of using iTunes as a platform for viewing manga comics, which would be a potentially killer app.
I think that getting top-notch content for the iPad is likely to be a challenge for a couple of reasons:
1) Despite its reputation as a technologically advanced country, it's my experience that Japan is often happy to follow behind the rest of the world in many areas, and there's a general tendency to wait before embracing big changes that come along. If I've learned anything about Japan, it's that companies here are extremely risk-averse and will study an issue carefully before they act if they think there might be a downside later.
2) Currently, Japan's business world is set up in a way that guarantees lots of profit for companies producing content. Whereas a U.S. bookstore will get books for 45-55 percent off the cover price, the retail markup for books in Japan is less than half that, leaving another 25 percent of the pie for producers. This means that a manga company considering publishing on the iPad has to factor in taking a hit on per-unit sales, as well as agree to the more reasonable prices that digital distribution will require. The popular manga magazine Shonen Jump has a circulation of 2.8 million copies per week. Do you think they'll be in a hurry to embrace any change that might disrupt that gravy train?
3) By and large, Japanese Internet users are not currently pirating media online in anywhere near the numbers that they are in Europe and the U.S., which means that Japanese media companies feel less urgency to act. They'd rather keep selling music CDs for $30 each as opposed to changing before the outside world forces change upon them. Yes, CDs really cost $30 in Japan, although imports from the U.S. are usually a more reasonable $18.
All is not lost for Apple, though. As it did with iTunes, it can play companies off of each other in various ways. If the number three publisher in a certain market would like to become the number two publisher, they are likely going to be interested in working with Apple in this new distribution platform. Apple can exploit this in the same way that some smaller music publishers were able to enjoy great success on iTunes Japan due to the lack of big names like Sony.
The Japanese market for electronic books designed to be read on cellular phones has been maturing for a number of years. In this market, there's no single site that dominates like iTunes does for music in the U.S., maybe Apple can appeal to the higher display quality of the iPad to win bibliophiles. The fact that iBooks will be available to everyone with an iPhone or iPod touch has got to be attractive to Japanese book publishers.
In a place that's as resistant to change as Japan is, doing what Apple is trying to do is going to be an uphill battle. I certainly wish the Apple team well.
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Source: http://apple.co.jp/
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Today's guest post is by Peter Payne, a longtime watcher of Apple's prospects in the Japanese markets. Peter is the proprietor of the...
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Where's the Softbank iPad rage? RAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAGE!
May 11 2010 at 9:45 AM Report abuse Permalink rate up rate down Replyooooohhh 46% of smartphone market...that makes more sense...still impressive. This high figure is due to the rate at which people are buying the iPhone...72% of the current smartphone purchases ----> http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-04-23/apple-iphone-captures-72-of-japan-smartphone-market-update3-.html
April 24 2010 at 8:28 PM Report abuse Permalink rate up rate down ReplyHmm. I didn't realize the iPhone was so popular in Japan! After playing with the iPad for 2 weeks, i think the iPad will take off in Japan because if 46 percent of the mobile market have iPhones, they already know that a larger screen allows you to do sooooooo much more...like life sized/actual sized crayons - http://itunes.apple.com/jp/app/drawing-pad/id358207332?mt=8
April 24 2010 at 2:00 PM Report abuse Permalink rate up rate down ReplyIts 46% of the smartphone market not 46% of the mobile market. Big Difference.
http://www.engadget.com/2009/12/18/iphone-nabs-46-pecent-of-japanese-smartphone-market-the-tiny-ja/
I think the lack of Wifi in Japan will be a huge obstacle for iPad adoption. One will basically /need/ to buy the 3G version for it to be useful, and that's a much more expensive proposition.
April 19 2010 at 6:48 PM Report abuse Permalink rate up rate down ReplyIt's confusing that Apple calls the iPad "iPad" in Japan. Much like the Airport base stations are called AirMac, I would expect Apple to maybe call the iPad "MacPad" or something along those lines.
As stated, some confusion may abound from the Ai-Pad which already exists. I do think that will be short lived though.
Apple products have a fairly dedicated crew of individuals in Japan. Their styling has long garnered a deal of respect in Japanese culture. The higher priced machines also command respect as price is still equated largely with quality in Japan.
My guess, alternately, is that the iPad will do well in Japan. We'll see a ton of new apps come in from the Land of the Rising Sun, while initially signing on publishing companies will remain difficult in the market for the first couple iterations.
Just my $0.02
For creatives, technologists and anyone simply interested in new media, Japan is a pretty depressing place. The 'suits' control everything here.
April 19 2010 at 1:59 AM Report abuse Permalink rate up rate down Reply@jonwil2002...
i'm thinking you missed the sarcasm. lol
Good points, worth considering for sure. Some interesting points in here too about the book-publishing aspect:
http://metropolis.co.jp/features/feature/the-next-big-thing/
I've been in and out of Japan for 10 years; I'm
I think the main issue with people outside of Japan is that they seem to look at the iPad, still as a bigger iPod Touch/iPhone with more features... We all know its a different, game-changing device.
The reason more Japanese haven't jumped on the iBandwagon just yet, is simple: iPhones cannot view mobile content that are produced for Japanese mobiles... try scanning a QR code at the local McDonalds or 7-11 store and you'll soon find out-- on a Japanese mobile, you'll come to the mobile site, but on the iPhone you end up redirected to the PC site. Until that simple correction is allowed for mobile safari, don't expect any big changes in the landscape. This is my biggest frustration as a mobile developer, content consumer and iPhone user here in Japan
the iPad however is seen as a very different device here. One look in an electronics store, and you'll soon find out that the Japanese *don't* need to be told what a slate-type computer is. They already have been seeing them on shelves for years. They know the difference between a netbook, an e-photoframe, and a full-blown PC. The people I've had casual chats with at the apples store here in Nagoya have all told me the same thing I see echoed here-- The day Jump or Shogakukan decides to make a manga app for the iPad, you'll see 20 people on the subway the next day with one.
Don't believe me? If you're in Japan, take a look around you on the subway and count the passengers with their keitai mobiles, Nintendo DSes, and PSPs... Then if you can, check the screens... Most of them arent playing games, they're reading CONTENT. mostly MANGA-DRIVEN content.
Your so-called "simple correction" is anything but, since you seem to be suggesting that Apple introduce support for i-mode or one of the other redundant, proprietary Japanese carrier services. Technical reasons aside, Apple certainly isn't going to start playing that game now for a whole host of reasons from company design ethos through to investment-vs-reward.
I've also got to disagree with your assertion that the average Japanese commuter is viewing content on their devices. There are signs of an uptick in keitai manga sales, but paper still rules the market. People with gaming devices (PSP, DS, and to some extent iPod/iPhone) are playing games. iPad will certainly have little traction in that; it just doesn't fit, literally, into commuter behaviour.
In general, I think the manga/iBook deal â or maybe even manga in-app sales â is also a real non-starter. While the some of the content available is culturally acceptable for Japan, Apple is an international company with a very carefully engineered corporate image; it would seem to be too much of a liability that Apple could so easily be pilloried with.
It seems as though credentials to discuss these things here are how many years you've had $THING to do with Japan. This is silly, but that's besides the point. Where do you /go/ while you're in Japan? Nagoya isn't exactly the center of modern industry.
I ride the train from Saitama-ken to Shinjuku-ku every weekday, and let me tell you that when I had the iPad in the case on the train 10 days after release, everyone knew what it was and started talking about it in Japanese around me.
As well, I've had no problem with 'japanese' QR codes. The free iPhone app I use scans them just fine.
To conclude, I think that we should all start a TUAW: Japan and keep better track of things, but I think the following needs to be stated ç´æ¥ã« (directly): Saying Japan is "extremely risk-averse" is, in my opinion, simply a politically correct way of saying that they're followers. I agree with the somewhat general assertion that the 'suits run things.' But they do it in a sort of 'hive mind' way. Very, very few people are critical about anything.
Still to this day, to do /anything/ in some very traditional Japanese corporations you need to have /everyone/ in the entire office sign a proposal. It's difficult to change the status quo because everyone is effectively looking to the person next to them to make a decision first.
And while Apple does have an almost disturbingly cult-ish following here, this follow-the-leader-style decision making, where no one quite knows who the leader is, does not mesh well with the way Apple does things, which I think was a very telling implicated Peter made in his article.
I've been in Japan two years myself, and most Japanese are still using non-iPhones. I'll agree with the author about typing Japanese on the phone. It's the best thing out there. However, since most of the people I talk to on a regular basis can't read Japanese, the phones here suck beyond belief when typing in English.
One thing the author forgot to mention is that a majority here use the train to commute to work. During the mornings and evenings there is rush hour traffic in which you're packed into the train like a sardine. There is no way anyone would be able to use an iPad during this time. You can barely use your phone without it touching someone else.
During non-peak times on the train, you will see a lot of people reading. They still read the paper based books because they are easy to hold in one hand while hanging onto the ceiling strap with the other. The iPhone is perfect for this one handed operation. The iPad is just too big.
I'm going to assume (NSFW) means not suitable for westerners. Japanese men have a thing for big chested teenagers that will also show their panties in the manga. Danny Choo is famous for promoting these types of characters. Apple will have to put their moral standards aside and approve all manga that have this as a story line. This "hentai" type manga is extremely popular, and Apple would be a fool not to approve this. Same goes for the anime that is popular here.
If Apple can convince popular authors like Murakami Haruki to put their books on iBooks, they may see sales of iPads grow. I certainly would buy an iPad if it helped me to learn Japanese better.
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