Gene Munster: Apple could sell 6.2 million iPads in 2010

As soon as the ichat camera version hits, I am in!

When I saw Gene Munster in the heading, I immediately and deliberately ignored it as complete and utter rubbish. Then I decided to read it just to see what direction the current 'iPad Bandwagon' was heading, or which way the CW wind was blowing.

Before the iPad was released I was predicting at least 7 million units sold when even the most ambitious estimates were saying 4 million tops. And I don't have nearly the 'resources' or 'tools' Munster does. Now I see that even my 'optimistic' projection is probably low and am inclined to agree with 2Wah's 9.3 million, at the minimum.

Let's do a little simple analysis: iPads are currently selling at >1mil/mo, and let's remember that most of those sales were domestically. Since Apple is not yet able to keep up with demand and demand seems to be growing, it is safe to assume that the upper limit of iPads sold this year will be determined largely by Apple's ability to meet that ever growing demand.

So, 1mil/mo x 7 months = 7 million
7 mil + 2 mil = 9 mil

Assuming Apple can ramp up production by at least 50% by year's end, that comes out to 50%/7, or at least 7.1% average increase per month, or 0.071 million more iPads per month. So, over 7 months that means 2 million more ipads

2 mil sold + 7 mil + 2 mil (ramp up) = 11 million iPads sold by year's end. And that is a minimum estimate.

Gene Munster is the Paris Hilton of analysts - he is famous merely for being famous, and nothing else. It is only continual references by blogs like this and comments to those blogposts by people like me that propagate the kind of nonsense that is spouted by such an idiot. So, we have only ourselves to blame, and I can't blame Mr Munster for riding the self propagating wave as far as it can take him.

ipad not so impressive cant even put a CD on it no HDMI outlet its just like a big iphone nothing much to offer

TUAW has iPad and iPhone free feeds. They need to provide a Munster free one.

"Love it or hate it..."

The only people who hate it are fools who far too much emotion into an electronic gadget.

In a more reasonable world the phrase would have been "Love it or feel indifferent about it..."

/mimic fanboy-troll

It's only selling so much right now because the Tegra hasn't been released and because Windows is redrafting the courier idea to compete with the ipad.

Once they do those things and when the android tablets come out Apple will be history..

/end mimic

hah!

it is magical... hand it to people and they want one because there's nothing else like it.

Munster is a dipshit. First he says 1.2 million—oops—I meant between 3 and 4 million—oops—I meant around 6.2 million.

And yet. Blogs (read:Tuaw) keep quoting him like he's a prophet or something.

Here's my math:

214 days left in the year X 34,000 average per day = 7,276,000 + 2,000,000 already sold = 9,276,000 Total Sales for 2010.

I bet I'll be closer than Munster factoring in Christmas sales and improved manufacturing.