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iPhone sales expectations lowered due to supply shortage

by Mike Schramm Jul 6th 2010 at 6:00PM

We've already heard that Apple is taking a risk by being low on supplies for iPhone 4, and now at least one analyst says it's too far: Shawn Wu of Kaufman Bros. is lowering his expectations for iPhone 4 sales this year. Of course, that means he's cutting expected sales from 9 million to 7.5 million (which means Apple would still make truckloads of money), but nevertheless, Wu says that "an inventory drawdown and screen supply constraints could impact near-term shipments over the next two quarters." Ouch -- that's pretty harsh by analyst standards.

I think Apple was in the same boat with me on this one -- after such a successful iPad launch (and a not-bad 3GS launch last year), I didn't think that the iPhone 4 launch would provide too many issues. But from all of the anecdotal and sales data we've heard so far, it was huge -- much bigger than any of the previous iOS device launches so far. Apple's probably not worried -- 7 million phones is still plenty of phones for them. But it certainly seems, especially since a lot of stores still don't have phones ready and in stock, that they were caught off guard by demand.

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We've already heard that Apple is taking a risk by being low on supplies for iPhone 4, and now at least one analyst says it's too far:...
 

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Tom

A successful iPad launch? They still haven't released the iPad in Europe!

July 07 2010 at 3:25 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
pleigh

The iPad is just as bad. You haven't been able to get an iPad in a retail store in Canada since it launched here 3 weeks ago. The big retailers like FutureShop and Best Buy won't even take an order. That sounds like a screwup to me.

July 07 2010 at 1:43 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Buzz

Shaw Wu. What a piece of anal yst. He speaks often about Apple. Usually with about 23.475% accuracy.

When you read something about Apple by an "analyst", you need to find out how accurate that joker is over time. Until they can show you deep powers of analytics and prescience, they're just a joke.

http://guides.macrumors.com/Shaw_Wu_(Analyst)

July 07 2010 at 1:07 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Tom Wilkinson

Does this really work? How many people do you have to refer?

July 06 2010 at 11:05 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
James F. Heck

I don't that Apple was caught off guard at all. They were able to supply more in a three day period than ever before. The analyst in question frequently misses the mark. I predict over 10 million in the quarter that just ended with that number increasing each successive quarter until years end.

July 06 2010 at 10:00 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
pax copia

I want an iPhone 4, how much longer until they are available again? I put my name on a list at an apple store about two weeks ago thinking it would be a day or two...

July 06 2010 at 9:02 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
1 reply to pax copia's comment
Apples_to_Oranges

I ordered mine at AT&T, said it would arrive at my house in 7-10 days, already shipped actually

July 07 2010 at 12:05 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
David Frantz

I suspect that even Apple has been caught off guard by demand. Who would have suspected that they would have to ramp iPad production past 2 million a month this far after debut. It is possible that they will have moved 24 million by the end of the year.

As to iPhone 4, sure it is a good device but even I'm surprised at demand. However we and the analyst really don't know what Apples expectation was here. To say Apple screwed up here is a mistake, because we don't know how far demand exceeded expectations. If it has at all.


Dave

July 06 2010 at 9:00 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
robertlam1818

ipad been out for almost 4 months but still not available in HK. WTF.

July 06 2010 at 7:35 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Tom Gregson

Based on his previous track record over the years, I wouldn't bet the house on Wu's predictions.

July 06 2010 at 6:32 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Cynder70

This article would make sense if Apple could make them faster but was unable to or if demand wasn't there. I'm not reading that those issues exist.
Until Apple gives guidance that sales expectations were higher than will be achieved, this analyst is smoking crack.

July 06 2010 at 6:28 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
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