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Q3 iPad sales estimates vary

by Dave Caolo Jul 9th 2010 at 11:00AM

Predicting Apple's sales numbers is always a guessing game. Phillip-Elmer DeWitt notes that, despite Apple announcing the 3 millionth iPad sale 5 days before the quarter ended, this time will be no different.

He's compiled a number of estimates over at Apple 2.0, with an average around the 3 million mark. On the low end of the range is 2.50 million units sold from Mike Abramsky of RBC Capital. Mark Moskowitz of J.P. Morgan is more optimistic with a projection of 3.75 million units sold.

Most were surprised by the sheer volume of sales. At one point, Apple was selling 45,000 iPads per day. Bernstein Research's Toni Sacconaghi considered what could happen if that "scorching pace" was maintained: "Apple could sell from 25 million to 42 million units in fiscal 2011, its first full year of sales...revenues would amount to about $15B, and likely grow about $10B [year over year]. This would make iPad revenues in their first full year nearly as large as Apple's current Mac ($18B) business."

Of course, it's unlikely that such a rate of sales could be maintained, even if the iPad has truly joined its smaller brethren in breaking out of the core Apple customer base. Sacconaghi estimates that 18 million iPads will be sold in fiscal year 2010.

Apple's Q3 financial conference call will take place on July 20th. We'll be live blogging it as usual.


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Predicting Apple's sales numbers is always a guessing game. Phillip-Elmer DeWitt notes that, despite Apple announcing the 3 millionth iPad...
 

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David Frantz

About the supply chain. I don't think anybody at Apple expected iPad to immediately out sell the Mac line and to continue to do so months down the road. So let's not blame the supply chain guys. In fact I suspect heroic efforts where made to increase priduction.

Now if only Apple would update the iPad in September with more memory.

Now

July 09 2010 at 4:59 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Charli

probably has something to do with the fact that Adobe has never made a Mac version of their stuff. they, by their own admission, just take the Windows version and wrap it in porting code. just like they wanted to do with iOS apps.

So the interfaces don't look like Mac apps, they look and work like the windows apps that they are.

July 09 2010 at 3:27 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
TheCastro

You took the context he wrote in wrong

-1 for you.

He said he get's back on his computer when he needs to use Adobe. But since the computer is not touch screen like his other apple devices it feels dated like a windows machine.

July 09 2010 at 2:56 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
chano

Apple could sell 50M iPads next year because of world markets. Once it becomes a multi-language font capable device with full localisation, it will sell to folks, schools and business.

July 09 2010 at 2:33 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
PowerMax.com

I agree that the channel partners should have been much more involved, but the development of that relationship takes time with new product launches. I'd say 10MM+ units is pretty freaking good for a new $500+ product though.

July 09 2010 at 2:19 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
1 reply to PowerMax.com's comment
Charli

I suspect that's as much on the partners as Apple. Any area with an Apple store is probably going to have less traffic at other places for Apple products cause most folks would rather go to the source.

And since said partners typically have to buy in bulk and store units themselves they probably aren't getting that many at a time so they sell out fast. Then it takes time to get more etc.

July 09 2010 at 3:52 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
redys

I wonder if they'd have sold more iPads if they'd managed their supply chain better. Even now, long after launch, iPads can't be found in the Apple brick-n-mortar stores I've checked. Apple stores are packed with people fondling the product, but I've seen lots of people walk away from an impulse buy when they're told they have to wait a week to receive it. My experience could just be symptomatic of a mania in my local market, though. Has anyone out there in TUAW-land achieved a walk-in buy of an iPad, lately?

July 09 2010 at 12:59 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
2 replies to redys's comment
D

Tried buying one in a brick-n-mortar in the last three weeks. First time, none available at my local Apple Store and at the Best Buy. This last trip, 3g versions available at both Apple Store and Best Buy, but I was looking for the least expensive wifi 16gb model. So I have to await a shipment from Shenzen.

So, yes, stock is getting a *little* bit better, but not there yet. As a consumer, it doesn't bother me all that much; as an AAPL stockholder, it bothers me a bit more.

July 09 2010 at 2:18 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Charli

Interesting. Cause I'm in LA and just yesterday bought 20 for my employer for us to use on set. I had called in the morning to see about how long it would take (figuring I'd have to buy them a few at a time like the first 10 we got) and about noon I got a call that they just got a huge shipment and I could buy all 20 at once.

Now I was getting 32 GBs with 3g so perhaps it's a less popular model for that store. Other models might have different numbers.

But given the 6 or so people I saw paying for ipads while I was doing my thing, either they had them in stock or that whole wait list is moving fast.

July 09 2010 at 3:50 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
indiger

I find a device positioned to read books, watch video/listen to audio, surf the web with so many restrictions in formats and codecs maintain such a pace. When is Apple going to allow .avi, .mkv, and other currently unsupported formats to be played in iOS?

July 09 2010 at 11:13 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
5 replies to indiger's comment
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