Analyst: iPad to sell 28m in 2011, impacting PC market

All I can say is "um, um, ummmmm".

These analysts' figures are as believable as the projected $1000 price per share of Apple stock by end-of-decade I was reading about recently (zdnet, of all places, them being all pro-Apple, not).

If Apple sells 30million iPads this year, you can bet a LARGE percentage of those buyers will buy again when the latest model (with camera!) hits the shelves; plus of course those who chose to wait until the 2nd gen model; so I see no reason why Apple wont sell more than their estimate ... which will grow exponentially each year as current/new users upgrade. I think this is a fair enough statement seeing as most new iPod buyers are existing owners looking to upgrade and/or have the 'latest' Apple product.

You can add my anecdotal data point: I quite definitely got an iPad instead of a notebook or netbook, as it suited the needs I had for it, _despite_ the fact that, yes, a $300 netbook can technically "outperform" the iPad, if you are talking about clock cycles.

@Seth, a netbook, however Hackintoshed, cannot give you 1) instant on and access to the apps you want to run 2) 10 hours of use 3) complete compatibility with a library of apps I already own, no additional licenses necessary 4) tables form-factor with multi-touch - try using a netbook standing up.

Projections involving iPads in 2011 must also take into account that the product will be rev'd as soon as the first of the year. This has a couple of important implications. First is feature set. It's probably a good bet that the next ver. of iPad will have a front facing camera and facetime integration. That's probably the most significant upgrade (other than iOS 4.2). Other features will likely include more memory and higher storage capacities. Perhaps less likely in the next rev. but more likely in rev 3 will be faster processor, retina display, motion sensors and features we haven't yet thought of. Second, as Apple builds the iPod into a product family like the iPod, you'll most certainly see a price decrease in the current models of from $50-$100 lowering the price of entry to $399 from it's current $499 entry point. I wouldn't be at all surprised to eventually see an entry level iPad priced as low as $299 retail within the next 12 to 18 months. At those price points, and the move by most hardware vendors to push into this market, one wonders what the netbook market will look like at that time. My guess is that it will be largely gone as the performance curve for tablets pushes upward.

An iPad is FAR more capable than a netbook with windows 7 and only 1GB or RAM. Those things can't do ANYTHING without stalling and choking. The iPad is definitely the better choice between the two and people are seeing that.