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Analyst: iPad to sell 28m in 2011, impacting PC market

Both All Things D and AppleInsider report that, according to the analyst Maynard Um at UBS Investment research, the iPad is having a negative impact on the PC market. In a note to his clients, the analyst Um says, "Sales of traditional notebooks appear to be feeling pressure from the iPad, causing a scramble by vendors to launch iPad-like tablets. We believe that a majority of this impact is occurring on the lower end of PC sales as the iPad is priced close enough to this range that it becomes attractive to consumers looking to make purchases within this segment."

Um goes on to say, "We are not sold that the iPad is purely cannibalizing PC sales, as the functionality of the iPad cannot yet deliver the functionality of notebook PCs. However, consumers who purchase iPads may be more willing to delay purchases and upgrades of existing PCs."

As a result of this, Um points to a "conservative" projection that Apple will sell 28 million iPads in 2011, and raises his target price for AAPL stock from $340 to $350. Um also pointed out that there is no evidence to say that the iPad is cannibalizing Mac sales.

However, in contrast, V3.co.uk reports that 28 million is "a bit high," according to analyst Tin Couling at analyst firm Canalyst. Canalyst predicts that Apple will have sold 12.5 million iPads by the end of this year, but shipments of the iPad will only reach 20 million in 2011 as new tablets flood the market, competing with Apple's iPad.

V3.co.uk
notes that Samsung's Galaxy Tab is going to be one of the first major competitors to the iPad, but analyst firm Canalyst showed concern over its £650 price tag, sighting that it could make the entry level iPad, at £429, look reasonable (we're inclined to agree with that).

And still, only a few short days ago , analyst Katy Huberty from Morgan Stanley predicted that Apple is aiming to build as many as 3 million iPads a month by the end of the year. Meaning that Apple could make up to 36 million iPads next year, well above what both other analyst predict Apple will sell.

Apple announced in June that iPad sales had reached three million in its first 80 days. We'll have to wait and see where it goes from there, but analysts seem to agree that Apple's iPad will likely dominate the tablet market well into 2011.

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