iPad adoption rate faster than DVD, says analyst
I first heard about DVDs in late March 1997, sitting in the back seat of a friend's car as her now-husband explained this new video format that had just gone on sale weeks earlier. Having just gotten my VCR, it was pretty hard to fathom picking up another piece of hardware anytime soon. Within the next year, I saw DVDs appear at the local Suncoast and people gradually began taking to them. The clincher? Eventually, the price of DVDs dropped to where you were paying a cheaper price and getting better quality. Consumers gravitated to the new format, and the rest is history -- the DVD took off and never looked back.
The iPad? It took off a lot faster. CNBC has the story from Colin McGranahan, a retail analyst at Bernstein Research, who dug into the adoption rates.
McGranahan points out that Apple sold 3 million iPads within the first 80 days of launch. By contrast, there were a million iPhones sold in the first quarter of release... and only 350,000 DVD players sold in all of 1997. Keep in mind, when it comes to non-phone electronics products, McGranahan says that DVD players had the fastest adoption rate ever before the iPad (presumably meaning new categories of gadgets). The sales rate of the iPad after one quarter matches up with the DVD sales rate after five years. The iPod's first year? A similarly modest 375,000 devices sold.
Of course, the DVD player was fighting an established product in VHS, and the iPad had the iPhone and iPod touch (not to mention the App Store) to soften the ground for it -- but still, that's not bad for a product that some vocal critics gave lousy first reviews. The original predictions of a million units sold in the first year seem remarkably conservative in the face of a likely run rate of 18 million iPads.
Granted, Apple does have a history of defying the odds.
[Via MacDailyNews]
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Source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/39501308
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I first heard about DVDs in late March 1997, sitting in the back seat of a friend's car as her now-husband explained this new video format...
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Is this even a valid comparison? Feels like comparing original iPod to SNES adoption rates.
October 06 2010 at 3:54 PM Report abuse Permalink rate up rate down ReplyMy (visiting) sister has the original iPhone which is still at 1.1.4 (she lives in a country that doesn't do iPhones and she isn't tech savvy enough to jailbreak her phone).
She is fed up of the WinPC she has at home and had decided she wanted a 13" Macbook Pro and iPhone 4. I gave her my iPad to use and has decided that this is what she wants, so she is buying the 64GB WiFi model (which she will use with a MiFi-like device).
A lot of people who have seen my iPad and the specific Apps that I have think this device is indeed magical, and some have gone on to buy one themselves and a few have bought Macs.
So what? you might say... Well, every one of those was a rabid anti-Apple pro-MS WinPC user.
Sample size. We're talking about 6 months of sales. Not very long to establish a trend. Talk to me next year and tell me if the Ipad managed this brisk pace. Talk to me in 2012 and let me know if it continued to match DVD's pace.
October 06 2010 at 1:28 PM Report abuse Permalink rate up rate down ReplyIf you take this article and have lived in a bubble - it's accurate. But the rest of us live in the real world and the real world has changed since the DVD player hit the market. Most importantly is the importance and significant of the internet - from several points.
For one - marketing and advertising (and most importantly - SALES) didn't hit it's stride until right around 1996-1997.
With the internet as widespread and used today - the use/dependency for such a device is also more widespread.
Technology (new tech) is always more easily adopted as time goes on. How fast was the adoption rate for TV's in the first year? The first car?
Also - the iPad and computing devices like it have more than a single use making it more useful. DVDs came around when people already had VHS collections and Cable was in its prime. Many people didn't see or have a need for just another way to watch a movie.
So many factors (these are just a few). When you look at scenario like the one posed in the article - you find you can't just compare apples to oranges.
... and people don't have a computer for videos and internet theses days. Sorry for the sarcasm. I'm really just trying to show that this can be argued all day. It is a valid comparison.... It's not a valid comparison...
The comparison just feels wrong.
Let me have a crack at this comparison thing. iPad adoption rate faster than Jesus. It took him 30 years to start gaining any traction with the market. Alright, where's my TUAW article at? I also expect links from other Apple/Tech blogs shortly.
You're not comparing like for like. The iPad is a tablet computer made by Apple, but the tablet category has existed for many years. They entered the market once the category had matured a little. The first DVD players were in a brand new category of product. If you compared early sales of DVD players with early sales of tablet computers, that would make more sense. Or alternatively, compare iPad sales to early sales of a specific DVD player introduced once DVD players had already been around for a few years. Otherwise it's just Apples and Oranges.
October 06 2010 at 7:09 AM Report abuse Permalink rate up rate down ReplyLast I checked, DVD players in 1997 cost more than the iPad, and you didn't need to pay $30 per DVD (at the time) to get any utility out of it. Oh, and the iPad wasn't replacing a previously existing product like DVD was compared to VHS.
Carry on.
Oh, so DVD players were priced poorly and ill conceived. Doesn't change the statement of the report.
iPads are replacing existing products, and if they're not they're creating a new need that existing products haven't done a very good job of filling. Which is more breakthrough? Up to you to decide, but I'm not sure what you're bah humbugging exactly.
Present adoption rate is indeed higher but it won't ever go that far much in market penetration as dvd did in the long run. Next year will be flooded with tablets and the iPad will fight hard to grow its sales as the category pie will be sliced by even more players. One might argue that the iPad experience is unique etc. but when all most people look for is a portable screen to view movies + internet, they will consider all those cheap alternatives
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