iPhone could be the financial survivor in Android and Windows Phone 7 war
Needham & Company analyst Charlie Wolf believes that the iPhone could emerge as the big survivor as Android and Windows Phone 7 battle it out in a race to the bottom. Wolf expects that Google and Microsoft will be battling aggressively to keep phone makers building devices with their respective software platforms and those manufacturers will probably slash prices in an attempt to get market share. The result is expected to be significantly decreased margins for everyone but Apple. This could mean a scenario similar to the computer market where commodity Windows computers hold the vast majority of the market, Apple uses its highly polished products to stay far and away the most profitable computer maker.
In a new research note to investors, Wolf declared that the launch of Microsoft's new phone OS has been successful despite what appears to be very slow sales after less than two months on the market. According to Wolf there were 135,000 active users of the Windows Phone 7 Facebook app, which he sees an indicator of sales in the absence of actual numbers from Microsoft. Wolf expects the Windows numbers to grow as a result of Microsoft spending a substantial amount of its $500 million phone marketing budget on keeping phone manufacturers and developers in the fold.
While Android is roaring along with 300,000 activations a day right now, it is expected to take a hit if and when the iPhone arrives on Verizon's network. However, what Wolf doesn't really address is how AT&T will respond to losing Apple exclusivity. It's possible that it will put more of a push behind rival systems, helping them to increase their share at the expense of some profitability for the manufacturers and OS developers.
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Needham & Company analyst Charlie Wolf believes that the iPhone could emerge as the big survivor as Android and Windows Phone 7...
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It's always amazing how smart those analysts are.
Apple caring more about margin than volume? Inconceivable!
Ever try to send 2 photos/docs in one email on an iphone?
December 13 2010 at 2:13 AM Report abuse Permalink rate up rate down Reply@TUAWT
You forget that several recent studies conclude that the average male now prefers an android phone over an iphone by a decent margin.
See PCMag:
http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2373680,00.asp
Classy as always, Victor.
December 12 2010 at 1:53 PM Report abuse Permalink rate up rate down ReplyI see that "android users have settled for" line quite a bit from iPhone folks, yet they can never explain why Android is not just dominating in the U.S. Where the IPhone is on one carrier, but also globally, including markets where the iPhone is on all the major carriers. They also said wait till the iPhone 4 drops and we would see the massive Android rise slow, yet here we are with the IPhone basically maintaining the same marketshare while Android continues its breathtakingly fast rise to the top. I wonder what the next wait and see thing will be that they will pull out of their nether regions.
December 12 2010 at 10:24 AM Report abuse Permalink rate up rate down ReplyWow... are you serious?
The iPhone is a first class experience. It is seamless.
I've used a Galaxy S and a HTC EVO and both phones are last generation when it comes to user experience (when comparing to the iPhone 4).
The menus are no where near as fluid as an iPhone, a.k.a. "Android Lag"
Your post addressed nothing from mine. Good effort though. Since you want to talk about the experience, how is that notification experience? Notifications are the part of the UI most people interact with the most yet iOS still has the worst notification system in the smartphone arena. This is after YEARS of complaints. Google addressed the lag issue in Gingerbread.
December 12 2010 at 6:53 PM Report abuse Permalink rate up rate down ReplyWow TUAWT, you obviously haven't used an HTC android phone have you? User experience is easily on a par, if not better than the rather limited iOS UI.
I recently jumped from my iPhone 3GS to a Desire HD. IMHO Android is far far better than iOS and has much more potential to grow as it is not stifled by the apple hegemony.
IF, or let me say when, any other carrier besides AT&T gets granted the iPhone, I will drop my Android. I will never do business again with AT&T however i'd be more than willing to send my money to Sprint, Verizon, T-Mobile, Vidéotron, Bell or anybody else...
December 12 2010 at 1:19 AM Report abuse Permalink rate up rate down ReplySo let me get this right, android will be supporting dual core chips with better graphics and hardware and without the hassle of itunes and with more choice for consumers to buy phones with a slide keyboard/HDMI/DLNA/4G networks not to mention better prices on data plans and as these manufacturers will be competing with each other for reduced prices, why would most people buy apple?
Apple will become a niche market if doesnt compete with these prices especially if it doesnt deliver something amazingly spectacular in the next iphone which no one else does for the next 6months or so, while they will have higher margins they will have much lower sales.
The primary reason most Average-Joe consumers have bought an Android over an iPhone is because they don't want to or can't switch carriers and it's the closest thing to an iPhone that the salesman is spouting on about in the store. Regular people who don't read tech blogs (aka the overwhelming majority of the buying public) don't care about XYZ nerd feature.
The iPhone is the standard at which other smartphones are judged in the eyes of consumers and one obvious reason is the iPod/iPhone + iTunes experience. The hassle you refer to is what seamlessly tie users to their media and devices and how they get even more to add to their library. The Android side lacks that easy integration and ease is what people respond to most. When you aren't marketing and supporting devices in an obvious way or start naming third-party support as a solution, you're not giving your customers the best experience.
Spot on TUAWT, I would also add there is a vast margin of android users, that didn't specifically choose android over another smartphone device! if u get a default upgrade smartphone handset with your carrier these days, and your not a discerning techy looking for a specific handset, chances are your ending up with the lower end lg, samsung etc android device. These manufacturers don't really care much about these low end, lower profit margin android hansets, they are just there to grab as many sales as they can in a still boyant low end market. It simply a quantity over quality area, these type of handsets probably don't even have a projected life cycle long enough to warrant an android OS upgrade schedule at all?,
December 12 2010 at 6:04 AM Report abuse Permalink rate up rate down ReplyI've had iPhone and have Android currently, I like the Android better, can't pin it on one certain thing, just the overall experience. I know alot more people with Androids now than iPhone, kudos to AT&T on that one.
December 11 2010 at 4:20 PM Report abuse Permalink rate up rate down ReplyThat's funny, I see more iPhones than any phone type. But, then again, we all have our small little anecdotal world to circumscribe unto others.
December 11 2010 at 6:02 PM Report abuse Permalink rate up rate down Reply@Chris
Yes all handsets are $199 but what you have overlooked is who makes them. Google make negligible money from Android phones, only from pushing adverts through those phone. MS presumably charge for Windows licences which immediately disadvantages them against Google.
Apple make money on every aspect of the phone. The hardware, the software, the Media (iTunes), adverts. That is why they are in the position they are in.
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