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App Store could surpass total iTunes music sales by March

by Steven Sande Jan 17th 2011 at 11:00AM

Anyone who has visited the Apple website in the past few days knows that sometime in the very near future, the total number of apps sold through the iTunes App Store will go over 10 billion. After all, Apple is conducting a contest in which the person who buys that magic 10 billionth app will win a US$10,000 iTunes gift card, so many of us are taking a frequent peek at the numbers.

What most people might not realize is that the iTunes App Store is poised to reach the 10 billion app mark in less than half the time it took for iTunes to sell 10 billion songs. An insightful analysis by Asymco published yesterday shows that while it took approximately 67 months from the opening of the iTunes Store for the number of music downloads to hit 10 billion, only 31 months will have elapsed between the day the App Store opened and the point where 10 billion apps have been sold.

The article, by analyst Horace Dediu, supplies another fascinating statistic: more than 60 apps have been downloaded for every iOS device sold -- iPhone, iPod touch or iPad. Dediu points out that not only are more than 30 million apps being downloaded each day, but that rate is accelerating quickly. By March, the number of app sales should exceed the cumulative number of music sales.

Dediu ends the article by pointing out three conclusions: apps are a new medium that will impact all other media; as the number of apps on a device increases, apps create increasingly higher switching costs for users, and; app consumption is increasing so rapidly that the market will soon overshadow the PC software market.

It looks like it's a great time to be in the app market as a developer.

[via AppleInsider]



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Adam

So if I win the $10000 iTunes gift certificate, can I look forward to the IRS hitting me for an extra $2500 on my taxes next year? Considering how cheap most apps are, it's unlikely I'd spend all $10k, much less just $2500 of it, any time soon. So winning this contest seems like a terrible value prop for the average joe.

January 17 2011 at 2:59 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
1 reply to Adam's comment
TheCastro

Well it depends if it i seen as income or a prize, it'll be taxed more if it is a prize. You should just sell it on ebay.

I figure I'd just subscribe to all the tv shows to spend the money, or buy lots of mac apps.

January 17 2011 at 4:55 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
wygit

I'm definitely in the "Are they counting paid apps" crowd here.

I've bought about 25 songs from iTunes since it opened, and that was because someone gave me a 20 gift card.

I don't download all that much free music from iTunes, just because I don't stumble across all that much that appeals to me when I sample it.

That would be one of the differences between music vs app downloads. You can't see what an app is like unless you download it. Then you try it, say "This is stupid", and delete it.

I've bought 5 iphone/ipad apps, but I've downloaded hundreds, mostly due to the RSS feeds of sites like dealnews.com where they'll list 3-6 "free-for-today" apps several times per week.

90 percent of them get deleted within a few days, but it sure helps contribute to the "sales" numbers.

January 17 2011 at 1:11 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Mike

Or maybe not, for a couple reasons...

If... 31^x = 67^y = 10^10

x = ln 10^10/ln 31 = 6.70
y = ln 10^10/ln 67 = 5.47

33^6.70 = 15.2 billion (March 2011)
95^5.47 = 71.6 billion (March 2011)

See the problem? The iTunes store has been open for almost 8 years. March will be its 95th month. September would have been its 90th month.

y = ln 10^10/ln 90 = 5.117
95^5.117 = 13.1 billion (March 2011)

Maybe somebody failed that graphing class and / or you shouldn't believe everything you read on the interwebs.

http://news.cnet.com/Apple-unveils-music-store/2100-1027_3-998590.html

January 17 2011 at 11:52 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
newdeal99

if there were free songs like there are free apps the music would have flown faster. How many of those app downloads are paid vs free, that may paint a far differant picture

January 17 2011 at 11:30 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
1 reply to newdeal99's comment
AC88

The thing is there already were and are free songs. Napster anyone?

One has never needed iTunes for free songs.

But I take your point.

January 17 2011 at 11:49 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Richard White

When I bought my first iPod, I already had 100Gig of music to put on it. I still haven't purchased any music through the store.

My iPhone left me no alternative but to purchase or download free apps. Mainly free ones except for about 30 where I really needed the features and was happy to pay; I have about 250 or so.

I don't think this is an original scenario.

January 17 2011 at 11:28 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Tim

Really? Apple reports music "Sales" numbers? Maybe you mean downloads.

January 17 2011 at 11:22 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Chris B.

This is very impressive, but isn't it important to remember that, while the vast majority of iTunes music dowloads are paid, a large percentage of the 10 billion App Store downloads are free apps?

January 17 2011 at 11:21 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Mikko

They should start the same policy they have with apps where they allow only content bought from iTunes store and tables will stop turning ;)

January 17 2011 at 11:14 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
oliver

Of course it would be prudent to note that the App Store was available globally much sooner than the iTunes Music store.

January 17 2011 at 11:12 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
2 replies to oliver's comment
Patriks7

It's still not available in some places, like Slovakia. But I don't complain, I still wouldn't be buying music from there.

January 17 2011 at 12:37 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
cycomachead

Not to mention the general view of the online world. I mean, when the iTunes Music Store launched in 2003 not many people knew what it was and it was really just the very beginning of what was then the iPod revolution. When the app store launched, the world was already very familiar with iTunes and getting content that way.

The free app argument is really on of the reasons why there's so many app downloads. Remember the stats that most apps don't live past 5 minutes. (Though, for a developer, I guess they already got the sale…) and app piracy is still far more difficult and less prevalent than music piracy.

January 17 2011 at 1:47 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
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