iPad 2 success will burst the bubble for competing tablet manufacturers

Analyst Mark Moskowitz of J.P. Morgan Research predicts the success of the iPad 2 will cause oversupply problems for competing tablet manufacturers. Moskowitz claims manufacturers looking to compete with the iPad 2 have extremely ambitious build plans that will hurt them in the long run.
According to his analysis, tablet makers could build up to 65.1 million tablets in 2011, a number which greatly exceeds his estimate of 47.9 million in unit sales. This enthusiasm to duplicate the iPad's success could lead to an oversupply in tablets and components used to build these tablets. In a worst case scenario, tablet makers may have an oversupply of 51%.
Moskowitz claims the iPad 2 will continue to lead the tablet market in 2011, a sentiment echoed in other reports. The J.P. Morgan analyst views the Motorola Xoom and the upcoming HP Touchpad as potential competitors to the iPad, but claims consumers may be "underwhelmed" by the remaining tablet products slated to hit the shelves in 2011.
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Analyst Mark Moskowitz of J.P. Morgan Research predicts the success of the iPad 2 will cause oversupply problems for competing tablet...
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Damn I'm in a real dilemma I can't decide if I should get the white iPad 2 or the black one. The white one is really sexy but I'm a little afraid that over time the white may look a little used. You don't have this problem with the black one.
March 09 2011 at 12:43 PM Report abuse Permalink rate up rate down ReplyIt's not necessarily all bad news...
A few of these tablets are based on x86 processors under the hood, allowing for dual boot options, such as Android and Windows 7. Or for those crafty few out there, these could be modded just enough to run Mac OS X. (Though maybe not with all the multi-touch stuff intact...)
I'd certainly be among the first to tell you just how capable Mac OS X can be when running on a touch display. Given how deeply interwoven into desktop publishing and the media arts the Macintosh is, it amazes me that Apple hasn't been making such features standard on their systems, yet it's practically flooding the Windows platform to the point that it's more of a fad than anything.
One of these days though, I'd like to see the Mac and the iPad converge into a single device. I've already experienced some of this using AirDisplay to make some of my mac apps more iPad like. I've also experienced the opposite as well, using software that allows me to control my iPad from my Mac (though that involves jailbreaking...)
I didn't know there was a bubble to be burst...
The iPad hasn't been out for that long, and with everyone trying to copy it without having a reliable "touch-compatible" OS to base it on, it's been a struggle to get them to market.
Until they realize what Steve Jobs gave a VERY BIG hint about, they will be climbing up the wrong tree.
What's necessary is focussing on the user experience and ease of use, not technical specifications.
If they are worried that they can't compete with the iPad 2, because it's faster and has a couple more cameras than before, then they still don't get it.
If a manufacturer came out with a tablet that was user-friendly, and had NO cameras, and was the same speed as an iPad 1, at a competitive price, then I think they would have a winner regardless.
The biggest issue is that hardware manufacturers don't understand UI (which was evidenced during the "smartphone" dark ages before the iPhone).
Previous to the iPhone, they were all competing on features, and not paying attention to the UI. Now that Apple turned that market upside down, they are applying what they learned to the tablet market - which, contrary to what many people tend to forget, existed long before the iPad came out.
Why wasn't there already a good tablet OS before the iPad came out? They've been working on tablet and touch screen computers for many years!
Retrofitting Windows menu-based system to work on a tablet just isn't going to work for a finger-based OS.
Even the latest demos I've seen, for some of the most promising tablets, shows how you can select "multiple icons" with your finger, and manipulate and organize your desktop with your finger.
Until they "get" this concept, they will be far behind.
They need to ask themselves "Why does someone need to select more than one icon at a time?" before they start implementing functionality that is not necessary on a tablet.
The whole concept of moveable icons and a messy desktop should be a thing of the past.
I recently took a look at my brother's Android-based phone, and it had duplicate apps installed, some of them on completely separate screens and some of them all by themselves on a screen. This tells me they just don't get that people that use touch-based interfaces need something better than the desktop metaphor applied to a touch screen.
"This tells me they just don't get that people that use touch-based interfaces need something better than the desktop metaphor applied to a touch screen."
I used to love just customizing the desktop on my PC, then on my Mac when I found Jesus, but I finally got tired of the problems a customized UI causes when the OS gets updated or upgraded. Now I keep everything stock as much as I can and every OS-X update and upgrade has run like buttah.
The typical computer user is not a tech head and does not care for all this fancy customizability. It actually is less desirable to them because it just adds to the complexity.
I think HP/Palm is going to make a worthy competitor. They seem to be the only other company that gets that experience matters more then specs and Flash support.
March 09 2011 at 9:52 AM Report abuse Permalink rate up rate down ReplyAgreed. HP is the only company so far that appears to "get it" and has the ability to do something about it.
All of the Droid tabs are just compromises. And how many of them shipped without Flash to begin with? It's a joke, and all of these MFGs that think they can compete are about to get bitchslapped with Steve's pimp hand.
I really do wish there was better competition. It's great for the consumer. But, as usual, Apple is doing it better, and there isn't really anyone competing with them.
It might be too little, too late for HP. There's still the problem of feeding your supply chain with competitively priced components.
March 09 2011 at 11:02 AM Report abuse Permalink rate up rate down ReplySo which other companies think they have a product that's competitive with the iPad, and its App Store? I see machines with technical specs that *look* good, but I haven't read a description -- let alone a review -- of another tablet that I believe would provide me the long-term quality user experience that the iPad has provided for the past year.
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