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Gartner says Microsoft will surpass Apple in mobile by 2015

That's the prediction from analysts at Gartner today. In a new report, Gartner's experts say the Microsoft-Nokia partnership will give Windows the number 2 spot in 2015, with a 20 percent market share after the Android OS grabs 48.8 percent of the smartphone market. Gartner predicts Apple will have a 17.2 percent share by 2015, just behind Microsoft, but will remain a solid number 2 in the worldwide market through 2014. IDC had a similar prediction last month.

Gartner bases its Apple predictions on a belief that Apple will be more interested in maintaining margins rather than market share.

Perhaps. Somehow, the gurus at Gartner missed the fact that Apple is maintaining leadership in the tablet space with some of the lowest prices and feature-rich products available. Like most research firms, Gartner is pretty good at predicting the near future, which, frankly, is pretty easy, but not so good at looking out into the distance. Gartner was raving about netbooks a few years ago, and sales of netbooks have all but collapsed after the launch of the iPad last year. Gartner has rather consistently missed the rise of Android until lately, but hardly anyone saw that juggernaut coming. The truth is, predicting the future accurately is pretty tough. Take a look at the 1939 World's Fair movie that predicted the 1960s. Hmmmm. Not so good.

[Via BusinessInsider]