Gartner says Microsoft will surpass Apple in mobile by 2015

That's the prediction from analysts at Gartner today. In a new report, Gartner's experts say the Microsoft-Nokia partnership will give Windows the number 2 spot in 2015, with a 20 percent market share after the Android OS grabs 48.8 percent of the smartphone market. Gartner predicts Apple will have a 17.2 percent share by 2015, just behind Microsoft, but will remain a solid number 2 in the worldwide market through 2014. IDC had a similar prediction last month.

Gartner bases its Apple predictions on a belief that Apple will be more interested in maintaining margins rather than market share.

Perhaps. Somehow, the gurus at Gartner missed the fact that Apple is maintaining leadership in the tablet space with some of the lowest prices and feature-rich products available. Like most research firms, Gartner is pretty good at predicting the near future, which, frankly, is pretty easy, but not so good at looking out into the distance. Gartner was raving about netbooks a few years ago, and sales of netbooks have all but collapsed after the launch of the iPad last year. Gartner has rather consistently missed the rise of Android until lately, but hardly anyone saw that juggernaut coming. The truth is, predicting the future accurately is pretty tough. Take a look at the 1939 World's Fair movie that predicted the 1960s. Hmmmm. Not so good.

[Via BusinessInsider]

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Source: http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=1622614

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That's the prediction from analysts at Gartner today. In a new report, Gartner's experts say the Microsoft-Nokia partnership will give...

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supermaitai

Geez, windows mobile has been around since god knows when. This is nothing to brag about.

April 08 2011 at 12:14 AM Report abuse Permalink rate up rate down Reply

dood

This isn't a prediction, its a what if scenario, what if all Nokia smartphone users turns into WP7 users. How much does Gartner charge for this hogwash?

April 07 2011 at 9:09 PM Report abuse Permalink rate up rate down Reply

tdowling

By the way, that 1939 video didn't seem to be too far off at all!

April 07 2011 at 6:18 PM Report abuse Permalink rate up rate down Reply

jssneddon

Gartner schmartner. Who cares. Sure, give me $20k and I'll predict the future for you.

Here goes...

Hmmm omni-hommini-buuubah-frik!!!!

Prediction says: Fewer companies than ever turn to Gartner in 2011 for their predictions!

April 07 2011 at 5:21 PM Report abuse Permalink rate up rate down Reply

woebot

Gartner has been irrelevant for ages now. They're in bed with Microsoft and still have their head in the sand.

April 07 2011 at 5:07 PM Report abuse Permalink rate up rate down Reply

Chris M

Of course Microsoft will surpass Apple. How, you ask? Through Nokia. Nokia shift the majority of their handsets to developing countries. By 2015 they will be punting microsoft powered handsets to millions of Pakistanis and making Microsofts figures look good.

April 07 2011 at 5:05 PM Report abuse Permalink rate up rate down Reply

1 reply to Chris M's comment

SIP

Damn! Did you have to insult Pakistanis?

April 07 2011 at 9:30 PM Report abuse Permalink rate up rate down Reply

Frank Z

Oh this old gag....

April 07 2011 at 4:48 PM Report abuse Permalink rate up rate down Reply

Silver

Wait, so they're saying that two old-market giants clueless about the new mobile market are going to be dominant only because they're going to join forces???

Please. Two bad products combined does not a good product make. I hope no one is buying MS or Nokia stock based on this lamebrained prediction.

April 07 2011 at 4:38 PM Report abuse Permalink rate up rate down Reply

Zak

The sad part is that these comments from Gartner will probably make Apple's share price drop. Analysts like this annoy me - making predictions based on the air coming out of their butts.

April 07 2011 at 4:26 PM Report abuse Permalink rate up rate down Reply

Dominic Yates

I think this would be more of an Apple v Nokia&MSoft battle not Apple v Microsoft alone... it's taking the collective powers of both to challenge the iPhone and that won't even come to fruition until 2015.. who knows where the market will be by then!!?

April 07 2011 at 4:23 PM Report abuse Permalink rate up rate down Reply