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The iPad's incredible effect on the PC industry is only beginning

We already know based on Apple's latest quarterly earnings report that the iPad is pretty much eating the PC industry's lunch. Writing for Forbes, Bob Evans points out that as impressive as the iPad's effect on the industry has been thus far, we've only begun to see the sea change Apple's tablet device is triggering.

Evans offers five reasons why the iPad seems to be taking over the industry, and in each case he believes the iPad's real disruptive potential has yet to be realized. First, he repeats Apple COO Tim Cook's remarks from the last financial call, where he stated that while Apple was seeing slight cannibalization of Mac sales because of the iPad, the effect was relatively small compared to the devastation present in the rest of the PC industry. Mac sales were up 14 percent last quarter, but growth in the rest of the industry is a far smaller 2.6 percent.

It's not just everyday consumers driving the iPad's growth, either. Multiple studies have come out showing how eagerly businesses are adopting the iPad for enterprise applications, and the recent launch of Apple's B2B volume purchasing program is likely to drive even greater adoption of the iOS platform. As Evans points out, part of the reason enterprise adoption of the iPad is so high is that businesses are finding uses for the device that Apple never expected.

Apple's retail stores are another reason Evans offers for the iPad's success. Apple Stores arguably made the Mac, iPod, and iPhone more successful than they would have been otherwise, and it's no stretch to say the same is true of the iPad.

Perhaps the most important predictor of the iPad's future success is iPad use by children. Young kids in particular are growing up in a world where touchscreen tablets are a fact of life. I grew up with the Apple II already part of the toolset in my kindergarten, so it's almost impossible for me to comprehend a world without personal computers. Will today's kindergarteners feel the same way about hardware like the iPad? It's entirely possible.

As Evans says, the iPad has been on the market for less than a year and a half. We're only seeing the beginning of its effects on the industry. Think back to the mid-80s, when the Mac first came out, and consider how long it took before GUI-based computers became a home appliance every bit as "necessary" as the T.V. Or think back to the early 2000s, and how many years it took before the iPod supplanted both CD players and other mp3 players as the king of the portable music player industry. The iPad has already had a huge impact, but it's only the beginning.



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We already know based on Apple's latest quarterly earnings report that the iPad is pretty much eating the PC industry's lunch. Writing...
 

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nik

Well the iPad's incredible effect is that it both creates new uses for computers, and replaces PC in doing some things either equally well or better.

Good for Apple as the iPad is relatively peerless.

July 28 2011 at 5:51 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
du79

I've bee told that it is difficult to take out e-pub books from your library with a Kindle. Is that true.?

July 27 2011 at 12:04 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Seanpat05

How can you editors sit back and believe tim cook?? He states that iPad sales took a small bite out of mac sales, but at the same time he makes some crazy statement saying that iPad has took a more devastating effect on PC sales, even though windows laptops are cheaper than iPad. He is full of crap, and makes me ashamed he is playing politics with this stuff

July 27 2011 at 9:41 AM Report abuse -5 rate up rate down Reply
2 replies to Seanpat05's comment
PeterScott

What Tim Cook actually said:
"Tim Cook responded that Apple believes that some customers did choose to purchase an iPad instead of a new Mac during the quarter, but even more chose to purchase an iPad over a Windows PC. Cook stated that they believe there is much more to cannibalize in the Windows market than in the Mac, and the Mac has attributes that will allow it to continue doing well in the market."

I don't any talk of devastation in there.

July 27 2011 at 9:55 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Donn

Yes, how about that. Make a great product, and it can sell better than even the cheaper alternatives. Blows your mind, eh?

What cracks me up is about a year ago, there was so much controversy over whether the iPad was having any effect on just netbooks. Now, it's pretty certain that iPad has killed the viability of netbooks, and we're talking about its effect on the PC industry as a whole.

July 27 2011 at 11:23 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
PeterScott

I did a search on the this "polarized problem". It turns out the only complaints I found, were "Oscar Goldman" posting the same story in other forums. As it turns out the FAA recommends against using Polarized sunglasses for pilots. I would have to label this "huge problem" as a nonsense post.

(From the FAA regarding polarized glasses)
Polarized lenses are not recommended for use in the aviation environment. While useful for blocking reflected light from horizontal surfaces such as water or snow, polarization can reduce or eliminate the visibility of instruments that incorporate anti-glare filters. Polarized lenses may also interfere with visibility through an aircraft windscreen by enhancing striations in laminated materials and mask the sparkle of light that reflects off shiny surfaces such as another aircraft’s wing or windscreen, which can reduce the time a pilot has to react in a “see-and-avoid” traffic situation. (Airliners.net, 2009)

More information:
FAA publication: Sunglasses for pilots: beyond the image. http://www.faa.gov/pilots/safety/pilotsafetybrochures/media/sunglasses.pdf
FAA pilot safety brochure: Pilot vision. http://www.faa.gov/pilots/safety/pilotsafetybrochures/media/Pilot_Vision.pdf

July 27 2011 at 9:30 AM Report abuse +2 rate up rate down Reply
Cy Starkman

Hmmm

July 27 2011 at 7:01 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
DRH

@oscar,
I think your being harsh for a product that has barely been out 18 months and is only in its 2nd model.
Your pointing out a flaw for one specific aviation use and believe Apple during the busy time and short window of design for iPad 2 should have concentrated on this polorisation issue.
Is this your own observation or one that you have heard about?
Has anyone even you know off even bothered to alert Apple about this observation if it's accurate?
If so, based on the mind blowing variation of uses for the iPad that have come to light in such a short period of time, it's a bit egotistical to assume one particular use should have been prioritised and actioned already in just the second model!

In fact the more I read of the previous post, this sounds just like one of those naysayers I posted about previously.
They all follow the same theme moaning about openness and lockdown issues.
I'm still flabbergasted to believe that people really think Apple just lockdowns devices for control issues, it's absolutely ludicrous, it's obvious that it's the only way they can attack the success to twist twist things kid this to try and make it a sound like a negative.

The simple fact is, Apple does have an OCD, and that is to ensure the user experience is kept to th e same quality they intended. Open and uncontrolled that these people wish for is the mess you get with android Market place and all the security issues that have been widely reported!
Apple doesn't really have a desire to control what you do with a device and anyone that believes that is a fool.
Apple does want control, but that control is to ensure you don't end up with poorly written apps that will degrade your device, they want to ensure your privacy is kept (to the best of emir ability) and not just leaked to all and sundry!
I for one love Apple controls, I feel their attention to detail in these areas provide a safer environment for me and my children to use these devices without the risk of abuse from fake app creates who only want to harvest your personal information. That's one of the main reasons I would not risk my families exposure with poorly controlled devices like android that are simply churning out code to and steam ahead. Openness and uncontrolled are key factors to androids ability to try and forge ahead, they tout them as benefits to the user which is conviienient as they are really only benefits to them themselves. Trying to control the user experience takes a lot of time and resources!

July 27 2011 at 4:46 AM Report abuse +1 rate up rate down Reply
DRH

I love it when I'm right, I absolutely knew it was going to be successful , there was not the slightest doubt in my mind and whilst I know many others were as convinced as me, I had a few run-in's with naysayers in comment sections on various blogs like this. I wish we could go back and ask thoses people what they think now :-)

It's not so bad for people to be wrong in life, especially if they truely believe their viewpoint at the time and are willing to adjust their viewpoints when it's become clear they were wrong. That's the most valuable and positive thing you can gain from an error. What's completely worthless are those thats we call 'naysayers', who debunk stuff just for the sake of it because they simply have a dislike for a company and wish them failure rather than have an actual factual viewpoint.

July 27 2011 at 4:17 AM Report abuse +1 rate up rate down Reply
Oscar Goldman

The sad part is how Apple has needlessly crippled iOS devices and squandered so much potential. It's as if they learned nothing from the failure of music DRM. If iOS devices had proper I/O, and third-party apps could sync information with counterpart apps on the computer, we'd see a major increase in the number of USEFUL apps. And there'd be no loss to Apple.

Apple wants to tell everyone else exactly what these devices can be used for, and prevent anything else. But they've predictable failed to imagine a vast many ways people want to use them, and failed to test them accordingly.

For example, one of the articles linked to above describes the use of iPads in aviation. But the iPad is seriously flawed for this purpose, because the screen is polarized in the wrong direction. Every pilot wears sunglasses, and a huge proportion of them are polarized.

Unfortunately, Apple didn't pay attention to which way the screen polarization went on the iPad, so the images on the screen are only visible in landscape orientation with said sunglasses. That's not the way you're going to position it for aviation. There are even kneeboards to hold the iPad on your thigh (where pilots normally keep notepads or other aids), but of course it's in portrait orientation.

This mistake is symptomatic of Apple failing to recognize the potential of these devices. They're PORTABLE. That means they might be used in vehicles or in other dynamic environments. But the extent of Apple's imagination is someone browsing the Web on their couch. This was clear in Steve Jobs's uncomfortably lame introductory presentation at the iPad's launch.

Even worse is the failure to fix the above-mentioned problem in the iPad 2 (despite it being an acknowledged bug).

If the iPad is truly disruptive to the computer industry, it's because people didn't want computers. Not because it's versatile.

July 27 2011 at 4:16 AM Report abuse -6 rate up rate down Reply
5 replies to Oscar Goldman's comment
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