Gene Munster, the Piper Jaffrey senior research analyst who usually hits the nail on the head when it comes to Apple forecasts, thinks that Apple will move to multiple U.S. carriers within the next year. He believe that this will happen next summer, which has been the time when Apple has introduced new models of the iPhone.

Munster noted that having multiple carriers in a market has helped Apple to achieve greater success in terms of market penetration. He pointed to France as an example; originally, Apple inked an exclusive arrangement with Orange. When it moved to a multi-carrier deal, Apple's market share in France jumped to about the 40 percent range. In the U.S., the iPhone's market share is only in the mid-teens.

Many industry pundits expect the next iPhone carrier to be Verizon, since they are beginning a transition to a new, iPhone-compatible 4G network (LTE) in the next year. This would make the transition rather simple for Apple, since they wouldn't have to design an EV-DO iPhone, but instead just use the current hardware design.

Update: Per TUAW reader Ben C., the Verizon 4G transition is not expected to be completed until 2013. In addition, a CDMA-based iPhone would need to be deployed for Verizon. Thanks for the correction and explanation.

[via LoopInsight]

AT&T today announced that it will begin upgrading its network to the faster High Speed Packet Access (HSPA) 7.2 technology later this year. The 3G network upgrade will not be completed until 2011, at which time AT&T plans to start deploying the 4G Long Term Evolution (LTE) network. This is contrary to previous roadmaps, which showed HSPA+ (20+ Mbps) deployment occurring prior to the move to LTE.

Devices compatible with HSPA 7.2 3G networks are capable of a theoretical peak download speed of 7.2 Mbps (megabits per second), or almost a megabyte per second. While the current iPhone 3G does not support HSPA 7.2, many of the rumors circulating about a next-generation device include HSPA 7.2 compatibility. AT&T's press release also noted that "multiple HSPA 7.2-compatible laptop cards and smartphones" will be available later this year.

The AT&T network is currently undergoing other upgrades, to the tune of over $17 billion of capital investment. AT&T is still deploying more 850 MHz spectrum for better coverage and in-building 3G reception. The 'Death Star' is adding fiber-optic connectivity and more capacity to many cell sites in anticipation of the higher bandwidth required by HSPA 7.2 and LTE, and the plan is to add almost 2,100 new cell sites in 2009.

AT&T also noted that they're working on customer trials of AT&T 3G MicroCell, using femtocells to improve in-building wireless coverage.

If USA Today says it, it must be truthy -- hence the enthusiasm for today's report that sources close to the discussions are confirming an ongoing confab between Apple and Verizon on the topic of bringing everyone's favorite smartphone to America's most popular cell carrier. The future prospect of a Verizon iPhone, originally rumored and countermanded for this year, has perked up the ears of AT&T naysayers around the USA.

Although the paper cites Verizon's CDMA network as the target for the iPhone deployment option, most other observers (including Verizon executives) have noted the upcoming LTE/4G network, built atop the GSM standard that the iPhone already knows and loves, as the likely deployment environment. Robert swooned over the possibility of an LTE-enabled iPhone back in February; of course, way back in 2007, Verizon's attitude towards Apple's phone was far less conciliatory.

Even though AT&T is eager to hold onto its exclusive deal for iPhone in the US as long as it can -- and there's plenty of financial motivation already -- there's enough meat to this report to make me believe that Verizon-Apple negotiations are more than a stick to push the incumbent carrier toward a better deal. Getting earlier access to LTE (AT&T's buildout is at least a year behind VZW's) and more domestic options for the phone would be a win for Apple, as would a more generous revenue sharing plan with AT&T.

What's not clear to me is the percentage of would-be iPhone buyers who have so far avoided the phone because of carrier exclusivity and the two-year contract requirement. If having Verizon as a choice would flip you from the 'no' to the 'heck yeah' column, pipe up.

Update: Just discussed the Verizon rumors with Randall on TechVi.

Now, I understand this may be a very niche subject for our dear readership, but as many of you may remember, I'm a Verizon customer. That's why this morning's news about Verizon testing its Long-Term Evolution 3GPP (LTE) service in various parts of the U.S. has me excited.

Yes, while it's amazing that Verizon is getting 60Mbps downloads using LTE in Columbus, Minneapolis, and northern New Jersey, what's exciting to me is the fact that LTE plays nicely with GSM. If you could use a GSM phone on the Verizon network -- I think you can see where I'm going with this -- you might be able to use an iPhone with Verizon service.

While it's true that Apple and AT&T have an exclusivity agreement with each other, Verizon and Apple have previously used two completely separate kinds of technology (CDMA versus GSM, respectively) -- preventing any kind of interoperability. With Verizon at least speaking the same language as iPhone handsets, the possibility of keeping my carrier and having my dream handset comes closer.

In theory, at least; it isn't as easy as flipping as switch. If it works anything like, say, the procedure for using your iPhone with T-Mobile here in the U.S., it requires unlocking the phone with QuickPwn or yellowsn0w. Apple has recently suggested that it considers jailbreaking iPhones to be a violation of DMCA. Interpreted broadly, that may include unlocking software, too.

Add to that some SIM cards that don't work with unlocking software, like some from T-Mobile. There's nothing suggesting that Verizon's new LTE SIM cards will work right out of the box. Even if they are, advanced features like Visual Voicemail won't be available, but that's something I can live without.

For me personally, I wouldn't mind either an iPhone or a Palm Pre. Maybe it's just a waiting game to see whose exclusivity agreement expires first, rather than trying to hack something together.

Then again, maybe I shouldn't get my hopes up. We've still got another year to wait before Verizon rolls out LTE service to most of the country.

[Via Electronista.]

Update: Commenters Andrew and Shane made a good point that I failed to grasp when I wrote this: Verizon's LTE implementation will not necessarily mean that GSM phones will work on Verizon's LTE network. LTE works like this: If you have an LTE chipset in your phone, awesome. If you don't, your phone will fall back to the network's prior 3G technology. In Verizon's case, that's still CDMA, which the iPhone doesn't support. Now, if Apple were to build in LTE support into their next round of iPhones (in anticipation of AT&T's adoption of the standard in 2011) there might be a chance this will still work, but that's a lot of ifs. Thanks, guys!