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UBS analyst Maynard Um says that Apple could sell 7 million iPhones in the first quarter of the year if they sell a low-cost, 4GB model, according to Electronista.

Citing "checks" with industry partners, Um claims a 4GB model is in the works, though it's unclear if it will be a regular iPhone at a lower price point, or a smaller iPhone nano device rumored to be in development. While it may cannibalize sales from the current low-end 8GB model, a significantly lower price could add 1.5 million more sales for the quarter.

Generator Research's Andrew Sheehy goes even further, projecting that Apple could sell 77 million iPhones by 2013, according to Philip Elmer-DeWitt. Sheehy has three reasons why Apple will dominate the smartphone business:

• Apple's ability to combine hardware and software, making it easy for users to consume
• The App Store's vertical platform model leads the market so far
• Smartphones are the only kind of phone that Apple makes, unlike other handset manufacturers like Nokia.

Sheehy says that, among other recommendations, Apple must broaden its offering to include higher- and lower-end units, including tablets and entry-level smartphones: All with access to the App Store.

He also says that Apple will capitalize on the paralysis brought on by a weak global economy, and use its cash to get "one or two design cycles ahead of the competition."

"When rivals start spending again, they may discover that Apple has built an unassailable lead," Sheehy writes.

The NPD data for November retail sales have arrived, and the news is not that cheery: year-over-year Mac sales were flat last month, while Windows PC sales grew 7 percent over 2007's total. Desktops on both platforms got hammered, with 20% drops across both platforms -- Windows machines down 15% and Mac desktop sales down a dramatic 38%. Some of this may be attributable to the long-idle Mac mini (soon to be refreshed, we hear), static feature set of the iMac, and reduced purchasing of Mac Pros and iMacs by education and corporate customers, but consumer buying is clearly down for the desktop.

The tables are turned on the portable side: year over year, Mac laptop sales grew 22 percent for November vs. a Windows increase of 15%. This is good news for Apple's refreshed portables as customers do seem to be taking to the unibody models. It's not clear from the report whether the blossoming netbook category, which includes a sizable chunk of machines shipped with a flavor of Linux, counts entirely as Windows laptop sales or if it's chopped up by the shipping OS -- I'll try to find out. Update: NPD tells me that the Linux netbooks were included in the Windows sales number, but those configurations didn't make a material difference to retail sales.

Did your microeconomic purchasing plans for year's end get derailed by the macroeconomic circumstances? Let us know below.

Apple met or beat analyst expectations for sales over the weekend, selling 13 Macs and 3.4 iPhones every hour, according to one Piper Jaffray estimate.

Kaufman Bros. analyst Shaw Wu said that Apple's Black Friday promotions helped drive retail store traffic, according to reports from distributors. Wu also noted that the iPod touch is sold out at Amazon.com, which leads him to believe that Apple could sell $10 billion worth of products this quarter.

Thomas Weisel Partners' Doug Reid got the impression that Apple sales were up from last year. He was less optimistic about Dell's retail performance at Best Buy locations, noting that salespeople there were not strongly recommending Dell models at 35 stores they checked.

Weisel analysts expect Apple to sell 2.4 million Macs during the fourth quarter.

Deutsche Bank analysts also conducted their own checks over the weekend, and found demand to be "solid," considering the current global economic woes. They expect Apple to sell 5 million iPhones this quarter, and reiterated their "buy" rating and price target of $150 per share.

AAPL was down slightly in morning trading.

Good news, everyone! TuneCore has finally introduced a video distribution option for iTunes.

If you're a wedding videographer, a school play coordinator, or a computer tutorial specialist, you can now package up your video for a flat fee (60 minutes costs $550, 90 minutes costs $770, other lengths vary in pricing according to TuneCore). Here are some points you'll want to know.

• The approval process for iTunes usually takes about two weeks and must meet the iTunes store terms and conditions.
• iTunes store customers can either buy or rent your video.
• All proceeds go directly to you after Apple takes its cut. The flat fee covers all of TuneCore's take.
• You retain all rights and the agreement is non-exclusive.

Want more information? Fire off an email to movies@tunecore.com or visit their webpage.